For example, a worker who invested $1,000 in stocks in 1964 and retired 35 years later in 1999 would have accumulated more than $60,000, adjusted for inflation, based on the return of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index. But if that same worker started saving just three years later, investing $1,000 in stocks in 1967, that nest egg would be worth about half as much in 35 years — due largely to the heavy back-to-back stock market losses just before retirement. A lot of the success of your retirement plan rests on dumb luck.

That assumes both workers ignored the first rule of planning for retirement, which is to maximize risk early and minimize risk later. If you’re not planning to retire for another 35 years, then by all means, invest in high-risk stocks. But if you’re approaching 60, then you move your money into safer quarters, in which case your hypothetical worker avoids those 2001 crashes.

Schoen paints a bleak picture, and I don’t agree. Planning for retirement is crucial and complicated, but not difficult. It simply isn’t a success that favors dumb luck over hard work.