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USA Today recently featured a nervous article about the economy. According to the authors, the U.S. credit crisis isn’t just a problem for big banks — it’s also a problem for you and me.
As the credit crisis seeps into farther-flung corners of the economy, more of us will find it harder — and costlier — to borrow money. The value of the funds in our retirement accounts could shrink. People with subpar credit will likely find it more difficult to qualify for auto and home-equity loans. Even consumers who make the cut may need higher credit scores and more documentation.
I generally ignore articles like this — they’re often “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing“. In this case, though, the authors offer a compelling argument that poor choices made by eager banks and borrowers really could cause problems for everybody else.
They worry that as the bad news continues, weak consumer spending will lead the U.S. economy into a recession. The sub-prime debacle has already begun to make credit more expensive for even responsible consumers. According to the article:
Credit bureau TransUnion’s TrueCredit.com division has begun recommending that consumers maintain a credit score of at least 680 to qualify for prime rates. For years, TransUnion had recommended a score of only 650 or above.
The article also notes that consumers are borrowing more on their credit cards, despite the storm clouds on the horizon:
Revolving balances on credit cards are at an all-time peak, with U.S. households owing a monthly average of $6,960 in the year that ended in September 2007, up 41% from four years ago, according to Synovate, a research firm in New York.
The best safety net against a downturn in the national economy is to place your personal economy on solid ground. I watched my father struggle during the late 1970s and early 1980s because his money situation was a mess. Runaway inflation and high unemployment made things worse. He had saved little, and the money he did have was devalued. Plus he found it difficult to get a job. I doubt the U.S. economy is headed that direction any time soon, but it comforts me to know that I’ve made some preparations in case there is trouble:
For myself, that means the the following:
- In a few days, I will have eliminated all debt but my mortgage. From here forward, I intend to use credit as little as possible. (I’ll use a credit card only to purchase items for which I have cash in the bank.)
- One of my top goals for 2008 is to boost my savings. At the moment, my emergency fund only contains about $1,000. By next December, I hope to have saved at least ten times that amount.
- I’ll continue to practice frugality in my everyday life. Little savings here and there make a huge difference in the long run.
I try not to let news of financial doom and gloom bother me. I have to trust that if I’m doing what I believe is best, things will work out in the end. So far, the only effect the sub-prime mess has had on me is to deflate my Washington Mutual stock, and I actually see that as a possible buying opportunity! But I worry for others, for those people who are just beginning to pull themselves out of debt.
[USA Today: Housing woes have domino effect]
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November 27th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Like you say, focusing on getting your own personal finances on solid ground is a great way to ride out a storm. I also try to remember that I’m in life for the long run so I try not to let these day to day news stories get me down too much. Although, it can be difficult to remember that sometimes!
Peter
November 27th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
I gotta hand it to ya, this post should be read by everyone.
I think about my Credit every single time I use my credit card or pay off a bill, but lately I’ve just been charging too much because I have no cash. It’s a very bad thing to start charging when there is insufficient funds.
-Mike
p.s. Score of 750 and rising here
November 27th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
Kudos for (a) drowning out the market noise and focusing on what’s important and (b) busting out a MacBeth quote.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
It makes me a little nervous as we’re just buying our first home, and we’ve got another member of the family on the way, so my financial world is about to be upended anyway, but we’re still set with a decent emergency fund and the mortgage will be our only debt. I’m as confident as I can be that we’re going about this in the right way, regardless of what comes on the horizon.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
November 27th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Good luck with your $10,000 savings goal. Care to share what your annual taxable income is? 10 grand is impressive if you make 40k a year, but if you are making 80k+ its not. Just to give people some context.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
The credit crunch is going to get me good.
Previously, it was easy for legal immigrants on an H-1B, TN, or other working visa to get a mortgage and buy a home. Now, the lenders are cracking down and more and more loans are being declined. Banks won’t check your credit history from other countries, so you can’t rely on years of solid credit to help you when you come to the US.
I am here on H-1B, I managed to finance my house on an ARM last time around. At that time (late 2005), I took a 5 year ARM. I needed the lower monthly payment because we were single income (my husband did not have work authorization) and I was at the beginning of my career and I could reasonably expect to get 3 promotions in 5 years, which would cover higher payments later but not now. I also figured that in 5 years I would do one of the following:
1. sell the house (this was plan a, my husband was spending his time remodelling because he could not work. I thought we might like to move on to another house and continue to remodel until he could work) OR
2. eat the higher payments because my husband would finally be allowed to work in 5 years once I had a green card.
Turns out that we don’t want to sell the house after all. Not to mention, the house had more problems than we bargained for (the inspection didn’t tell us that we would have to replace the roof and furnace!!!) and the renovations took longer and cost more because of these problems.
Now I would like to re-fi into a fixed rate loan and take out some money to complete the renovation. Also, I’ve got 2 promotions, I can afford a higher payment, so it’s time to take a fixed rate and lock it in. I have stellar credit, but I am waiting (and waiting, and waiting, and waiting) for my green card application to be approved.
I am doing my research on refinancing. I have heard horror stories from friends that have been in the US for years having mortgages and refinances declined because of their visa status. This is not something that happened six months ago. Now I am concerned about being stuck in my current mortgage for no good reason. If I did wind up stuck in this mortgage, I would have to spend down my kid’s college fund, cut way back on retirement savings, and dip into the HELOC to get my house into a salable position so we can turn a good profit and leave the country.
Thanks America, way to kneecap your immigrants and keep them from the American dream of homeownership.
The credit crunch is the last straw, dealing with immigration officials is bad enough. Now it’s not even profitable to try the American dream. I am getting really pissed off at this stupid country and I want to go home.
I used to recommend to my friends that coming to the USA was a great way to improve their financial lives. Now, with the crap dollar, tight lending, and anti-immigrant sentiment, I wouldn’t recommend coming to the USA to anybody.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
there is defnite truth to the fact that the credit crisis is going to take it’s bite out of all of us.
Look, there’s only two ways to deal with bad debt. The banks that made the risky loans find the debt is bad and they (and their shareholders) absorb the losses or that the buck is passed on to the taxpayer and we all bail them out. (Actually that happens in phase one two, in the form of FDIC insurance.) Personally, I hate the latter. It’s the ultimate in giving the banks the upside without the downside risk. Of course that’s precisely what many are demanding happens through a variety of means. And it’s not like we actually have tax surpluses to spend on this stuff.
The honest to god truth is that credit was made artificially cheap. We all know this. ARMs, two mortgages, etc., were all tools to get around the old rule: you need to actually have saved a fair bit to buy a house. Instead, they were tools designed to focus on something else: cash-flow. What happened? They turned everyone into real-estate speculators and we had the worst inflation in housing prices we have ever seen. Only way the system was going to remain functional, though, was if interest rates stayed very low and the cash-flow stayed high. That’s a system that was doomed to collapse.
I don’t want to pick on Cathy per se, but it strikes me that the answer was that she wasn’t in a position to buy a house back then.
Now, I think the fear-mongering some are making about this credit crisis is over the top, but it certainly true that we all are going to pay for it.
The American dream, honestly, was never home ownership. That’s a bit of a myth and something that is more recent than most realize. The American dream was and always has been for better prosperity and standard of living than the generation before us. The problem is that in the past we relied on discipline and increases in productivity to achieve that. Today we rely on deficit spending and pray that our productivity increases faster than our deficit spending.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Hopefully the worst that will happen in the UK is that credit will become harder to obtain, but we’ve already had one bank go far too close to going under. When you consider that our banking is market is incredibly consolidated (much more so than the US) if there are any more problems that could be a really big deal.
November 27th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Before you go all Chicken Little, I recommend reading a recent Newsweek column about this: The Great Recession Obsession
http://www.newsweek.com/id/67955/page/1
The crux of his argument is this:
“Recessions also have often-overlooked benefits. They dampen inflation. In weak markets, companies can’t easily raise prices, nor workers’ wages. Similarly, recessions punish reckless financial speculation and poor corporate investments. Bad bets don’t pay off. These disciplining effects contribute to the economy’s long-term strength, but it seems coldhearted to say so because the initial impact is hurtful. Today, a U.S. recession might also reverse the upward spiral of oil prices and trigger a faster–and healthier–drop in home prices. As economist Berner notes, the slow decline in prices prolongs the housing slump, because it induces “would-be buyers [to] wait for more attractive deals.” By making homes more affordable, a quick and sharp price drop might revive housing more rapidly.”
November 27th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
Is there ever a good time to not have an emergency fund, or to be close to the wire on your income/outgo?
Although I’d be more worried if the median credit card debt was $6,960; averages tend to overstate things.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Well I’ve been waiting on the sidelines to purchase a home. Many of my friends straight out of law school purchased condos with ARMs (I’m in an expensive metro area) and nothing down but I waited, paid down my credit card debt, and saved. Now my fiance and I are waiting for the market to fall more before purchasing because the bottom doesn’t seem to be in sight.
I’m also not sure why I should feel sorry for those who overextended themselves and pushed up prices by buying homes they couldn’t afford with a fixed rate mortgage through an ARM?
November 27th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Well, you can go ahead and pick on me.
I can say with 100% certainty that buying the house was the right decision for me. My husband needed something to do all day. He wasn’t allowed to work in the US and he could use his skills as a carpenter legally on our home as a project.
We put 20% down. I took the ARM for the lower monthly payment until our circumstances changed. and we spent $40k in cash renovating the house. The roof and furnace ran us an extra $15k. Now we need more cash to finish. Carpenter ants (which we also didn’t know about) were eating the wood in the basement so now we have a half-finished basement that needs to be fixed before we can sell and get out.
We are now swimming in equity. We are not a bad risk. Even if we took some cash out now we would have at least 20% equity in the house.
I now regret not taking the fixed rate. I could have saved less for retirement instead and carried the higher payment. Oh well, live and learn.
I feel sorrier for my coworkers who spent years saving money to build sizable downpayments, have excellent credit in their home countries, have stable employment (they’ll stay 5+ years in their jobs, they have to for their green cards!), excellent salaries, no debt, and they STILL cannot buy a house because of the credit crunch. Banks are throwing out the baby with the bathwater here. Many immigrants are great borrowers.
And seriously, immigrants have a hard enough time coming to this country. Why should they be deprived of home ownership on a technicality?
Sorry, guess I shouldn’t pick on the banks, guess I should pick on the government for the insufficient supply of green cards instead.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Of course, AC, you do realize that Samuelson’s point is that these things are good in a long-run, macro sense, right? Not that they are good in the short-run or in the micro sense?
You will also note that his caution is that part of the problem is due to increasing government spending and when government steps in and bails people out of their risky decisions. Hmmm, no sign of government spending decreasing and ample discussion of how we bail the banks/people out of their risky home mortgages. Not look like we are batting all that well there.
Berner is talking about homes becoming more affordable for people to purchase them. He’s not talking about those owning homes not losing their shirt. If all your net worth is tied up in home equity and home prices drop to a point where selling doesn’t cover your debt and you can’t keep up with the cash-flow to pay the debt, then the way things correct is by you going broke. I’m not saying that’s not the right outcome, of course.
As for oil, the interesting dynamic there is taking place in a different section of the newspaper, with talk of OPEC shifting oil sales to a Euro basis versus a dollar basis. Whatever there is to be said about the price of oil, I can assure you that it isn’t going to be determined by a theoretical prices will come down because our economy has slowed economist argument.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Cathy:
FWIW, obviously I wasn’t trying to comment on your exact particulars and it actually sounds like you are in a far better position than most. Most people who took out 5 year ARMs did not put 20% down. They put nothing down. They were extended credit that was ridiculous as compared to their present debt load and salaries.
I can’t speak to the situation of immigrants. I’m sure what you are saying is true and unfortunate if they are being treated disparately from non-immigrants without a rational legitimate reason.
I know it isn’t popular, but the root reason why many can’t buy a house right now isn’t so much the credit crunch (it is in the near cause, of course), but the inflation of home prices. Sooner or later that hampster wheel just stops spinning. Exactly what do people think made their homes increase in value so much, so fast? Did a new lake develop just off the edge of their property? Was gold all of a sudden found on their land? Did they expand the size of their home? Nope. Mostly, because someone else was able to sell their home at a ridiculous price. I know. I bought at the same time Cathy did and I know what I paid for my house was probably way too much. It’s harsh, but it’s the truth. Most of us bought the equivalent of a stock trading at 100 times earnings. Some bought the equivalent of a business plan .com after at their peak after IPO. A home is only worth what one can sell it for or use it for. That’s it. Many of us are doomed to either take losses on the homes or have to ride out a correction and a return to a more natural increase.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
JACK, you’re right about the long-term, birdseye view of the economy. I know it can be plenty painful for individuals at risk of losing their shirts. It’s easy for me to say that a recession’s not so bad as a young, childless renter with a fully funded emergency fund. Guess I shouldn’t be so cold-hearted.
November 27th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
It did seem unrealistic that home prices would continue to increase by double-digit percentages every year, especially since wages have decreased or stayed about the same in my area. There was lots of money to be made by selling homes and financing them (all those closing fees)!
I never dreamed that I’d live in such an “expensive” home (it’s a refurbished shack on the wrong side of the” tracks”), but at least I was cautious about upgrading to another shack with double or triple the payments when we built up equity. When I asked who would be paying millions for lower-middle class starter homes from the 50s, I was told that people from other countries would be buying them. Didn’t make sense to me. Why not live in a beautiful home in their own country? At least there is more community in most places than here.
A man asked me if what we Americans did now was just selling houses to each other. We do manufacture airplanes and spend bundles on warfare. Too bad we don’t have a decent healthcare or education system.
Since it would take six planet earths if everyone lived the U.S. “lifestyle,” our current consumption isn’t sustainable. The trend towards bigger houses is because we have too much stuff.
November 27th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I’m a renter with a healthy emergency fund and no debts too. On the minus side I work in IT. Jobs tend to vanish quickly with every economic hiccup. I worked hard to build up my savings. I would like to hold on to them rather than using them up to pay the bills should my job situation go south.
I blame the lack of leadership we have had in DC for the past 7 years for not putting a stop to the irresponsible lending while it was happening.
I also blame all of the irresponsible people living beyond their means with credit.
Maybe if things get bad enough these people will learn you shouldn’t spend money you don’t have, so it might be good in the long run.
I feel sorry for them in the meantime. There is going to be a lot of hurting going around.
November 27th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
“Thanks America, way to kneecap your immigrants and keep them from the American dream of homeownership.”
“And seriously, immigrants have a hard enough time coming to this country. Why should they be deprived of home ownership on a technicality?
Sorry, guess I shouldn’t pick on the banks, guess I should pick on the government for the insufficient supply of green cards instead.”
Well — these statements got me all riled up.
The truth of it is that it isn’t just immigrants being kneecapped in the current situation. There are plenty of non-immigrants in the US who seriously overextended themselves with a home purchase. There are a lot more who can’t afford a home at all, even while making a reasonable salary. We’re all in the same boat here.
I would love to get my hands on enough money to leave the US and be an immigrant somewhere else, let alone buy a house here or elsewhere. Both goals are out of my financial reach, and I’m firmly in the middle class if you don’t look too hard at the debt load I acquired moving myself up out of the lower class (though there’s no guarantee I’ll get to stay middle class, what with corporate America’s love affair with outsourcing my line of work to immigrants and cheaper labor abroad.)
Oops, but why should I — poor over-educated and under-capitalized US citizen that I am — be excluded from home ownership on those little technicalities?
November 27th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Good idea to focus on what you can control: your own personal savings and spending habits.
Unfortunately, this credit crunch will affect us all. One way that has yet to be discussed is inflation. The Fed has lowered rates to lubricate the credit wheel, but it has caused the dollar to drop. This increases the cost of all imported goods, including oil. Whether you borrow money or not, you still have to buy goods such as gas, food, and other necessities.
Once the dollar hits a point where outside investors demand higher compensation for buying our government bonds, we will see rates climb. Even Greenspan sees a period of liquidity extraction over the coming years, which means higher interest rates and inflation.
Don’t want to be a doom and gloomer, but this will affect us all in some manner.
November 27th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
I think the biggest things to watch out for are those you can’t control but which can control you. A notable economic issue - often covered but not often addressed - will be soon-to-reset Adjustable Rate Mortgages - ARMs.
Many of these were at reasonable payments initially but won’t be soon.
Try to get refinanced into a fixed interest rate mortgage soon. If there is a prepayment penalty, find out if you have a predatory loan. You may have claims under TILA or other consumer protection laws. You may be able to use these claims to leverage a better deal.
Deal with the lenders proactively before a predatory loan bites you in the tail.
November 27th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
These are “Chicken Little” articles - THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! Dave Ramsey reads them all the time on his show lately and laughs about them, saying things like “I’ve been telling you why this is a bad idea for TWENTY YEARS” :-).
Given the time I’d write a post on the DVD set I’m watching about the federal reserve bank and how it has basically destroyed our economy. Any interest in that, JD?
November 28th, 2007 at 12:18 am
“…you still have to buy goods such as gas, food, and other necessities.”
As one of the readers mentioned, although you can’t do much to control the prices of these necessities you can still exercise some control over how much you spend for them. For example you can grow your own food, drive less or use a public transport, insulate your house to cut-down on the heating costs, install solar-panels to cut down on the electricity use, etc.
November 28th, 2007 at 6:49 am
I agree with all of the above who have said that this sub-prime mess is going to impact us all. As a banker, I’m seeing credit terms tighten daily (if not hourly).
On the consumer side: It’s nearly impossible to get a 0% down mortgage with anything less than stellar credit, credit card companies are requiring lower DTI ratios than in the past, and variable rates for people with FICO score under 720 are through the roof (credit card firms need to make up for underperforming cardholders somehow).
For businesses: small business owners are finding it more difficult to get their operating lines renewed, and if you’re a start-up looking for unsecured money - forget about it. The word where I work is that we’re collateralizing EVERYTHING - taking second or third position blanket UCCs and third mortgages.
The piggy bank has been raided and the cashflow may not be cut off, but it’s being cut way back.
If you don’t spend more than you make and you have great credit, you’ll weather the storm. If you’re on the razor’s edge (as I am and have been documenting) - it’s could be a rough ride.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:21 am
Cathy, I am an immigrant too, but many Americans are in the same position. But really, you didn’t have to buy if you couldn’t afford 30-year fixed, nor pay 40K for improvements. Additionally, a house is not a necessity. People live fine in condos, for example, if they cannot afford houses. Nobody has ever guaranteed that real estate prices would go up; just looking at the 90s is enough to show otherwise. It was also pretty obvious during the bubble that there’d be trouble. I remember when a friend of mine told me that the banks were giving people mortgages for over 4 times their yearly gross, and I thought “this cannot possibly last”. And I hadn’t even known anything about ARMs.
About credit crunch affecting us all — it’s enough to look at recent stock market performance. I lost a bundle in the last month. Sure I don’t need or plan to sell, but it is still unpleasant to see one’s money disappear. And who knows what lies ahead.
November 28th, 2007 at 8:05 am
Cathy,
Banks love money, they know all about it. Refinancing is a giant money maker for banks. If they are rejecting people because of green card status, it’s not personal. Banks never make decisions based on personal vendettas. There is the simple fact that immigrants are more likely to leave this country if they get in trouble, and consequently, are a larger risk. I know if I went to another country, had a separate credit score, and then went into serious debt, I would be more likely to see going back to the US to avoid paying.
November 28th, 2007 at 9:06 am
jtimberman - is the DVD called the Money Changers or something like that? If so, excellent. Very low budget and not flashy but excellent nevertheless.
November 28th, 2007 at 10:46 am
Yep, I understand that it’s a risk mitigation thing for the banks. You would think, though, that payment history in the US and % equity would have an effect on the loan, which it doesn’t. It’s just a brain dead paperwork thing.
My friend who is getting the runaround from Wells Fargo on his mortgage has held his current job for 4 years, makes high 5 figures, and has lived in the US for at least 10 years. He’s had a credit card and built up an excellent payment history in the US. But no, a mortgage won’t be extended for the lack of one piece of paper. It’s trash.
I’m not dumb, I knew I was taking a risk of higher payments when I got the ARM. ARMs are great when you are really sure your financial situation will change and you will make more money once the initial rate freeze is up. My payments won’t go up for another 3 years. Even then, so long as current interest rates stay flat (well, they will probably dip and rise a bit, but given the current economy, I can’t see a huge hike) my payments would rise a manageable amount which I could afford. My husband has temporary work authorization now. He could go and get a job (he stays home with our daughter) and our income would spike to cover the higher payments. Then, once I had my green card, I could re-finance into a fixed rate later. It should only be 4 more years or so. Sigh.
Alternatively, like I said we could stretch to cover the remaining renovations and then sell it all, take our profits, and get the fuck out of the country. The banks would lose our interest revenue for the next 5, 10, or 15 years because of their short-sighted policy. Oh well.
Like I said though, I’d like to lock now. It’s very sad that the banks will refuse to take my money. I have equity, I have a great payment history (3 years in US), high 5 figure salary, and current mortgage will be sitting at about 2.7x gross income. It’s a good risk.
My point is that I don’t see how the USA can expect to attract experienced professionals with high 5 and low 6 figure incomes (which, in theory, are “welcomed immigrants”) without the opportunity for home ownership. Some people own homes in their home country before they come to the US. Some people want to sell their homes in the home country, transfer the wealth to the US, then buy in the US. Buying makes sense for a high earning professional with a big company sponsoring their visas and green card applications.
Once immigrants realize that they would have to live in the US for 5 or 7 YEARS before buying property (which is how long it can take to get an employment based green card), then I bet fewer highly skilled people would come in the first place.
To the condo guy, we couldn’t live in a condo. We need room for my husband’s shop, which is in our detached garage. He had to do something to keep his skills up to date while waiting for the government to let him work. We waited 2 years for his work authorization, and by fluke we were lucky to get it when we did.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Dickey47, its “The Money Masters” - http://www.themoneymasters.com/. Pretty poor production quality, but the information is outstanding.
November 28th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
jtimberman - yep, that’s it. I think JD would like it, especially for the suggestions at the end - I won’t spoil it!
November 28th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
For those of you who keep accusing everyone of being Chicken Littles: no offense, but are you that blind? Right now, the American economy is a person falling of a building and with every floor he passes, he says to himself: “so far, so good.” It’s a basic rule: if you keep spending more than you earn, you’ll eventually get into trouble. You can put off execution, but you can’t avoid it. I’m quite peeved with the US right now, because if their economy crashes and burns, they’ll most likely take Europe with them. Then again, debt is becoming more and more acceptable here also. And I’m not talking about ‘good’ debt that pays itself back, but the keeping-up-with-the-Joneses kind. Ugh… maybe I should just move to China
November 28th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
I’m sure we’ll all pay somewhat for the credit crisis. I just hope the people who are/were taking all the dumb risks will feel more pain than we will. If that’s mean — well, they’ve been having more fun than we have, because we’ve been careful and spending what we can comfortably afford. They can pay for it now.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
“So far, the only effect the sub-prime mess has had on me is to deflate my Washington Mutual stock, and I actually see that as a possible buying opportunity!”
A small but important point — if you don’t want the credit crunch to extend to your household, the last thing you want to do is invest in banks, especially ones who made most of their money off of mortgage origination and securitization like WaMu.
As a personal finance matter, anyone with substantial amounts of their savings in stocks needs to be able to keep a steady hand and look at the long view, but they also need to truly understand what they own, and be able to reevaluate the wisdom of their position if the fundamentals affecting the performance of their stock change. With respect to bank stocks, the current financial environment is a textbook case of changing fundamentals.
The decline in banking stocks is probably not a “buying opportunity” as much as it is reflective of a major, fundamental change in the ways those banks can make money. The most obvious losers in this new environment are the nouveaux riches banks that got rich making any loan they could and selling it off to someone else.
The credit crunch and depreciating home values make a HUGE difference in the way most banks are doing business; in the short term, they’re going to take it on the chin and in the long term, they need to figure out how to make money in the new environment, and the market will need to revalue how profitable they can expect to be.
I’m not saying that WaMu is automatically radioactive for these reasons, but I am saying you — and anyone else with holdings in markets affected by the credit crunch — will need to do your research and think very very hard about your current position. You may want to cut your losses instead.
November 28th, 2007 at 5:16 pm
Miss Q–Chicken Littler here. I don’t think I’m blind (obviously). Not saying that the impending economic downturn (and possible recession) aren’t going to be very unpleasant for many of us in the States and, in turn, overseas, but I don’t believe it’s the doom and gloom that some people fear. In fact, I think we agree on the main point: Irrational exuberance in the housing market and and a desire to live above one’s means are largely to blame for people feeling insecure right now.
I agree 100% with JD’s prescription:
“The best safety net against a downturn in the national economy is to place your personal economy on solid ground.”
It’s boring but effective: live below your means and save for a rainy (or retirement) day, and you will be much more likely to weather a financial crisis, whether it’s the dot.com bust, housing bubble bursting, oil prices rising or anything else. Not saying it’ll be painless, but it’ll be doable.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
it’s a double edge sword really. People are focusing on the credit crunch causing lenders to tighten up, but the flip side is they can’t make obtaining credit too restrictive less they restrict themselves right out of being able to make money on lending. recession is bad for lenders, so there is big incentive not to make lending too restrictive. of course, they could immediately start denying many subprime loans and credits, which is a pretty small percentage overall.
now conspiracy theory would have it that this was a planned event, because the banks can now charge more under the guise of lower credit worthiness. feds lowers rates to banks, banks increase lending rates to consumers and maintain rates to existing loans and make a ton of cash in the gap. probably why i continue to hold and buy more bank stocks. the subprime is nowhere near as bad as the S&L meltdown and the economy weathered it fine.
the added benefit is that if the people start to get gloomier about the economy, then people might start to save more. of course, this is a pipe dream. people will whine about higher costs, but won’t change spending habits. look at oil and gas prices, and look at how much people have been spending. there are so many mixed figures out there, that you have to seriously balance the gloom news.
what gloomy reports completely ignore is that $50-$100 billion worldwide equates to pennies in the big scheme of things. global economy is over $50 trillion dollars. And most of the write downs are based off of speculation rather than concrete figures. we are still another two quarters away from getting concrete data. markets are still up for the year too.
the best thing to do is not panic, ensure diversification, and think long term.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:13 am
Looks like I’m in the impacted group; according to the credit score tracker one of my credit cards provides, my score is 675. On the other hand, it’s beens steadily rising over the past year (the card in question got paid off earlier this month–yay!), so maybe I’ll be a premium customer again soon.
(Mostly steadily rising. The history tracker shows that it popped up to 690 last month, then back down this month, for no discernable reason … I hate credit scores.
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