Some Thoughts on the Stock Market, the Federal Funds Rate, and Economic Stimulus Print
Wednesday, 23rd January 2008 (by J.D.)This article is about News
I avoid discussing national economic issues at Get Rich Slowly because I am woefully unqualified to do so. However, people keep asking for my thoughts. Today I’m making a rare exception to offer my opinion about three topics that may impact your wallet.
Stock market woes
I spoke with Noelle Crombie from The Oregonian yesterday. She wanted my comments on the stock market turmoil. “What should the average person be doing?” she asked.
I hesitated and then said, “Uh, I’m really not qualified to talk about this sort of thing. I’m just an average guy. I’m not a finance professional. All I know is what I’ve read from books.”
“What would the books say?” she asked.
“Well,” I said, “basically nobody knows what the stock market is going to do. I think it’s important to pay attention to the long-term instead of the short-term. In the long term the stock market has increased.”
Crombie was pleasant and the interview went well, but I’m still nervous at being approached as an “expert” on these sorts of things — I’m the last person who should be giving investment advice or making assessments of the national economy.
(Look for more on this topic on Friday — I have an “Ask the Readers” queued on the subject.)
Economic stimulus package
Even my wife wants to hear my opinion on economics. Kris says I should write about the “economic stimulus package” that our politicians are promoting in an effort to avert a recession. The problem is, I don’t have much to say about it. As you may have noticed, I’m not very political. Also, I’m not interested in turning Get Rich Slowly into yet another economics and politics blog. There are plenty of those already. This blog is about personal finance.
If an economic stimulus plan is adopted, and if I receive any direct financial benefit (in the form of a tax refund, for example), I don’t intend to spend the money. Despite what some politicians and pundits say, I don’t believe there’s anything patriotic about spending. The notion baffles me. The two concepts — patriotism and spending — seem completely unrelated.
Fed rate cut
Finally, I don’t really understand Tuesday’s reduction of the federal funds rate to 3.5%. I realize this move is supposed to help mitigate a possible recession. To that end, it’s a good thing. But didn’t I just hear last week that annual inflation in the U.S. was high in 2007? Didn’t I just see an article at Boing Boing about rising food prices? Won’t lowering interest rates exacerbate these problems?
In the short-term, the drop of the federal funds rate actually hurts my personal finances. I have no non-mortgage debt, so the eventual reduction in credit card interest rates doesn’t help me. Fixed-rate mortgages are only indirectly affected by this move, and I’m not sure if they’ll see a significant drop or not. (If they do fall, we may refinance.) Meanwhile, I know that my savings will be earning less interest. ING Direct is now paying just 3.65%, and I’m sure other banks will follow suit.
Final thoughts
I believe the hysterics of the media do more to damage the economy than anything else. I understand that reporters want to engage their audience, but to do so they employ needless hyperbole. They fan the flames of fear. If you’re living within your means, avoiding common financial traps, and exercising sensible habits, you’ll be fine.
Some of my fellow personal finance bloggers have recently offered their thoughts on current events:
- All Financial Matters: Stupidity got us into this mortgage mess
- I Will Teach You to Be Rich: The worst financial advice from around the web
- Blueprint for Financial Prosperity: Worst inflation rate in 17 years
- The Simple Dollar: What does the Fed rate cut mean for me?
How do you feel about economic turmoil in the news? Like me, do you mostly filter it out? Does it worry you? I’d love to hear more from anyone with an actual economics background.

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January 23rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Thanks for your honest coverage of what’s going on in the economy. I appreciate your take from the POV of someone who is interested in PF but not so much politics and the economics. I’m also very interested in how this rate cut is going to hurt my finances since I have no debt and I’m basically enjoying my stable interest rates on my savings accounts and CDs (that are no longer stable, it seems).
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
“How do you feel about economic turmoil in the news? Like me, do you mostly filter it out? Does it worry you?”
I hate “the news” and started to hate it in High School. Then when 9/11 happened while I was in college I really hated it. “The news” so often just speculates, and stirs up trouble. If something is truly worrisome or actually something I should know about I’ll hear about it elsewhere.
As far as the economy goes I think we are in a big mess caused by the Fed and the mortgage calamity.
One other thing…..Ron Paul in 2008!
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
With regards to not spending stimulus package money:
Does anyone else remember the “West Wing” episode where Charlie says he donated the money received as part of a stimulus package to charity. The rest of the episode various characters jokingly ask questions such as: “Couldn’t you have just bought a DVD player?”, “Why couldn’t you have spent that money on a trip to Hawaii?”.
Fortunately for the economy, $800 would put me over the top to buy that new computer I’ve been saving up for. I’ve already made previsions to max out my Roth IRA of course, and am contributing quite a bit more to my 401k, so I wouldn’t feel guilty about such a decision. However, I do agree that the government pushing us to SPEND! isn’t the best message to push on a tragically indebted citizenship.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Here you go.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:09 pm
If anyone has specific questions on the economy, I’m an actual federal government economist and I will happy answer any questions as best I can. JD talked to me a bit about this article before it went up.
Here’s some charts and graphs I sent JD but didn’t get picked up in the article. Sometimes pictures are better than words.
Here is a basic description of a recession from howstuffworks:
In the United States, the economy follows a somewhat regular pattern of expansion and contraction. The economy will typically expand steadily for six to 10 years and then enter a recession for six months to two years. The point where the recession begins is known as a peak, and the point where it ends as known as a trough. Following the trough, the economy expands again toward another peak. Economists call the period of time between two peaks a business cycle.
This is a good picture of a business cycle
http://www.culturaleconomics.atfreeweb.com/111%20114%20MBB%20Macro%20Graphics/Macro/Fig%206.1%20Business%20Cycle.jpg
a graph of the US business cycles and recession periods
http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/2003/0306.gif
A recession is a normal outcome of a business cycle. I, like JD, think the media is partly to blame for creating a story that’s far out of proportion to what is currently going on.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
I don’t think we can stop the coming recession; “the best” we can do is delay it. That’s all the fed rate cut can do. I’d rather we just got it over with. It’s rather unfortunate that the “boom” of the last many years has been mostly funded by people spending money that they don’t have.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
@Sim
Thank you for that link. It makes me wish I’d kept the following paragraph, which I edited out of the final post:
However, I will say one thing. The United States — both the country itself and its citizens — has become a nation of spenders. We’re focused on debt as a way of life. This isn’t a sustainable model. You can’t continue to take on more and more debt. You cannot continue to spend when you have no money. Eventually you’ll go bankrupt.
Ultimately that Metafilter comment is a bit doom and gloom for me. I don’t want to believe the commenter is correct. He may be, though. If you, too, think the stock market is headed for a crash, you need to decide what this means to you.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I think the issue is going to turn to jobs very soon. People are going to worry about their livelihoods.
You are very modest about your knowledge of the economy but thats probably a safe action to take, you dont want major regrets later.
I wrote some advice for those, who could be at the threat of being fired. Check it out.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I think the “economic stimulus package”, if it happens will be more of a psychological boost to the economy if anything.
I don’t see it as a long-term solution to anything our country is facing.
I know this blog is for “personal finance”, but I think there are many great personal finance tips that you write about here that are applicable to our country as well! (such as not spending more than you earn!)
My two cents.
January 23rd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
This link is interesting, too:
Historical Dow Jones Industrial Average
Again, this document would indicate that we’re in the midst of a prolonged stock market bubble. I’m not saying this is true (and I’m not saying it’s false). I just think it’s interesting.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
That graph isn’t inflation adjusted.
Predicting the future is tough. Most of the economists I speak with have this view: The following recession will be worse than 01 or 91 but not as bad as the 79 one.
There’s a great deal of psychology in how markets function (confidence, expectations, etc). On a day-to-day basis all the thoughts are gibberish, but if we step back and observe for awhile, we see long-term trends.
I believe that the average US slowdown/recession since 1950 has lasted around 3 years.
I’ll happily provide some more in depth charts / graphs than what you’d find at websites dedicated to financial crashes.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Great Post.
The economic plan would be great for us as we could nearly pay over our next snowball debt.
The scary thing is that most won’t save it and will instead go deeper into debt!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
I think this chart sums up the emotions of a recession fairly well.
I think the stimulus package is, to be blunt, stupid. $800 for a majority of the households is nothing. Literally. Nothing. That isn’t going to save anyone. “Go out and buy more crap you don’t need!”
In the long run, I don’t like America’s chances. Not to get too political, but we aren’t teaching the next generation what needs to be learned. It’s all greed, consumerism, and shallow celebrity. I hope I’m wrong…
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
I agree with you that the media tends to create a snow ball effect with issues like the rate cut. Often times I catch myself thinking the worst after I read articles about the economy. I’ve caught myself doing it so often that I now read an article, then sit there and think about it for a while before I react to it.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
I agree that the media is doing a tremendous amount of harm. I feel like there are a lot of people shaping opinions out there who have a very shallow understanding of recent economic events and trends.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Because the media has publicized this so much, people who don’t know anything about finances, stock market, economics are getting scared, and trying to put their money where it doesn’t belong just because they think they need to do something before the “world ends.” Of course, these same people are very excited to spend the money even though they have tons of debt. It’s ridiculous. I will be happy to accept the money (if I’m within the salary range), but I’m not spending it.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Myself, I feel the only possibly good thing with the fed’s rate cut is that I may be able to refi my 30 year mortgage into a 15 year. Other than that… gas, heat, groceries, and just about everything else is not going to cost less anytime soon.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:57 pm
i was just thinking about this and talking with the lady about it in the car on the way home. my question was, “what does this mean to people like us who have a plan, savings, and safe jobs?”
i’ve been following this with the same attitude you are, i’m largely not interested in politics and have only a passing education on macroeconomics. but i do carry some consumer debt so rates dropping is good news for me. i may also try to refi our condo depending on how much it will cost us in the short term. we have a pretty decent mortgage already but i don’t want to eat up our savings if the gains aren’t going to be that great.
so you’re right, most of us probably aren’t going to feel much of this. we already live with tightened belts and have funds socked away in case of emergency. my only concern is my investment portfolio. i’ve set myself up with more long-term growth in case something like this happened so here’s hoping i diversified enough to ride this out
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:06 pm
I’m seriously sick of hearing about a “recession” There isn’t one. Maybe ones coming, maybe its not. There is no way to predict how much money people are going to be spending in the coming months. Yes GDP growth is slowing, slow growth is NOT a recession. It would take several periods of lower than previous numbers to have a recession.
On the other hand if the media keeps talking about a recession they will scare everyone into causing one. People won’t spend money when they think things are bad and the media is making them sound much much worse than they are right now.
I think this stimulus package is a joke but I’ll take the $1600 and pay down my car laon. Yes I spent it but not in the way want me too.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Spend a tax rebate? Not this blogger…
Since when is it patriotic to spend, wonders our partner blogger J.D. Roth at Get Rich Slowly. If J.D. gets a tax rebate as a result of the proposed economic-stimulus package, he doesn’t plan to spend it. “Despite what some politicians and pundits sa…
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Also that metafilter commenter sounds like one of those gold nuts who has 90% of their net worth in gold coins sealed in concrete tubes in the basement.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
@12 and the “scary thing”…. actually, this is what is intended and “needed”. 2/3 of our GDP is made up of consumer spending, and it fuels 3/4 of our economy. This is why some believe our whole system is a house of cards that can not be sustained. How long can we (both as families and a society) indebt ourselves to other parties for the sake of maintaining our lifestyle? Something has got to give, and I’ll be waiting with bells on to see if it happens in my lifetime (what I’m talking about would be quite extreme, changing life as some 300 million people know it). We’ve catered to our most primitive and selfish desires and now don’t know any other way. When something finally gives, the transition will NOT be pretty (assuming we as a society survive it). /loony rant
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I appreciate that you are willing to put yourself out there like this… and I agree with you about the news media fanning the flames. I also wonder why any journalist worth his/her salt would consider a blogger to be a viable source for a news story… based solely on the fact that they have a blog! That is not a dig on this site in any way, it’s just I would want some insurance that the sources for stories have some actual qualifications, you know? Wild.
Jerry
http://www.leads4insurance.com
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Well, what happens is that long-term debt reduces long-term growth potential, so the debt that’s accumulated will be paid off by our economy growing less than it otherwise could have in the future.
How much, when, how long, etc? Who knows?
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:39 pm
My thoughts on the tax refund - I already have $800, if I wanted to spend it I would. I don’t need anything right now, but thanks for the money, I’m sure plenty of people will spend it and it’ll fix the economy for about 2 weeks - doesn’t sound like a long-term solution to me.
As for the stock market we may have hit a bottom. Markets usually correct themselves by 10% every decade or so - unfortunately we’ve had 2 this decade - course as someone pointed out the market is on a big tear in the past 20 years. But since the rate cuts by the Fed this has spurred the financials to recover and the retail sector as well. The financials have recovered because now more people will be able to refinance their bad loans and banks will be able to make money again. And retail rebounds because now customers will use credit again cause its cheap (ironic, I know). But usually these are the first two sectors to rebound when the market hits a low. They’ll be some more lows in the coming weeks, but it won’t go much lower as a whole. Expect slow growth overall this year - certainly not 10%. Then again, it is an election year and those are historically good years for the markets.
Money is made when there is blood on the Street. And right now all those stocks are trading at a nice discount. I’ve been buying index funds and a few select stocks lately for my Roth and for my personal investments. After all, I love to shop, so why pass up these great sales on Wall Street? But if you aren’t familiar with the stock market don’t go out and buy a bunch of stock, educate yourself, save your money and you’ll make wise decisions.
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
People are freaking out about the end of this business cycle because their investments, retirements, kids’ college savings and jobs are on the line.
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
so. . . if they cut the interest rates, that means that buying a home becomes cheaper? Won’t that eventually lead to more home price inflation and the same problems we currently have with the “subprime mortgage lending crisis”? When interest rates get higher, then people with ARMs will get screwed? Only, now people will think that fixed-rate mortgages are the way to go, so the prices on those will either be higher, or banks will figure out a new way to screw the “safer” loans?
$800/person or $1600 for families will be spent in about 2 weeks or a month at best or else put in savings. . . how is that supposed to *help* the economy. That’s. . . . . 300 million * 800 = 2,400,000,000,000! Where’s that money going to come from?!
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
Do you really believe in the idea that in the long term stocks will go up ? Right ?
So I`ll give you an example.
Japanese Nikkei was 38,957,44 on 29th Dec. 1989.
Now it is 13,092.78.
Shall I say more ?
Don`t trust in all what the mass media produce. Mutual funds need you. Remember that.
January 24th, 2008 at 2:06 am
I think you did really well with your response to the interview. And i’m very glad to not be involved in all this market stuff - i can’t stand it! I don’t like risk or the math, so the only thing i have invested in stocks is my pension, and my bank thinks about that so i don’t have to. I’ll stick to my high-interest savings accounts!
January 24th, 2008 at 3:20 am
we should all just say we are in a recession just to get the saying it part over with to reduce the speculation. speculation is the biggest problem with the market right now. also, all those people who write those fancy books and give professional advice telling the “average” investor not to sell, are the ones causing the speculation and the sell off. The markets don’t swing this wide because the “average” investor is selling.
January 24th, 2008 at 5:40 am
Do people still not realize how the 800 dollar check works?
It is not a rebate.
It is your NEXT year’s refund.
It other words, the government looks at your taxes from last year, and says, “Well, this family got a refund last year of 2,000. Therefore we can give them 1,600 now, and at the end of the year, they only get their 400 difference.”
So, like the refund, THEY’RE GIVING YOU YOUR MONEY BACK. It’s not a stimulus package. It’s not free money from the government anymore than your standard refund is.
January 24th, 2008 at 5:44 am
Blog comments are a deceptively dangerous educational tool. As a financial advisor (and fan of philosophy), I was prepared to offer some insightful words for GRS readers. After reading the comments (and comments from other blogs I read on a daily basis), I feel compelled to encourage GRS readers to use blogs only as a tool for introducing ideas — not as a path to follow for yourself.
I will not embarass anyone here, but at least two of the comments preceding mine are absolutely and factually false. As JD often infers, reading books and educating yourself is the best way to learn how to “filter through” the noise and find the best path for you.
Do not ask the question, “What would you do?” Ask the question, “What would I do?” If the answer is, “I don’t know,” then you have more books to read and more learning to do…
“Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Seek what they sought.” ~ Basho
January 24th, 2008 at 6:09 am
JD asks: How do you feel about economic turmoil in the news? Like me, do you mostly filter it out? Does it worry you?
My understanding about recession is that it’s recognized in retrospect. In other words, we might have been in one for a year or so now, but the academics who declare it so are just now seeing the historical numbers.
On a personal level, I’m glad DH and I sold some investments to re-establish our cash reserves Jan. 2 instead of waiting (we used our prior stash to buy a duplex). I’m maxing out my 401(k) contributions, so I’m already dollar-cost averaging my way through the stock market convulsions, even though the value of my portfolio has lost 20k in 3 weeks. We might refi our new duplex if mortgage rates drop enough, but we can’t do it until March (60 days).
I listen to what’s in the news, but I really only listen to NPR, so the delivery is less overwrought than it could be. DH and I look at each other nervously during Marketplace and briefly discuss how the news might affect us, but mostly, we’re on track regardless.
As for being worried — I’m worried about taking advantage of current conditions and not messing up our future. I’ve been worried about unemployment and debt for a long time, so we’re prepared for that, and the recession talk isn’t changing what we do. We are taking advantage of the low interest rates and iffy real-estate market to buy some rental properties in our area — we’re “close to town” in a good school district, gas is rising, and fewer people can buy, so more quality renters are likely to want to rent in our area. We’re also downsizing from our house to one of the duplex apts, so our overall monthly costs of living are being reduced. These are all good things regardless of macroeconomics, but we’re trying to make current conditions work in our favor.
As for inflation in food costs — that’s more about changes in food production costs than an overall increase in the prices of food. In the US, it’s about fuel prices and the diversion of corn to ethanol production. Obviously, fuel prices = higher production and shipping costs. High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) is a major component of much packaged food, so those food products are impacted (another reason to cut out junk food). Meat, egg, and dairy production relies on corn feed, so those products have also seen hefty price increases. I’ll bet that vegans who cook from scratch have seen a much lower rate of increase in grocery costs.
January 24th, 2008 at 6:22 am
I dislike the AllFinancialMatters post, personally. The case discussed is pretty egregious, but there was a LOT of misleading talk and outright lying on the part of lenders, and I don’t think the buyers should always be blamed for believing it.
When I worked for a bank I went to their employee lunch-and-learn on homebuying. This was in 2004. They were saying things like how you could save $40K in one year! through the value of your home increasing. That was one of their draws for the meeting, on every flyer for all the years I worked there, so I’m sure it’s what they said.
This was supposed to make buying a home very affordable. I think, though I do not recall clearly, that they also touted the especially low employee rate on ARMs (I do know the especially low employee rates weren’t usually any better than you could get mortgage shopping). And of course, when I asked, “This cannot possibly be a housing bubble.”
This was one of the top banks in the U.S., speaking to their own employees. Who knows what they said to regular consumers who didn’t work in the home office (and who might be presumed to have some knowledge of financing.)
January 24th, 2008 at 6:28 am
A problem no one mentions is that our Fed has 2 often-conflicting mandates. Control inflation and control growth. As far as I know all other central banks only act to control inflation.
January 24th, 2008 at 6:29 am
[...] Rich Slowly has some interesting thoughts on the situation today- be sure you read the comments [...]
January 24th, 2008 at 6:33 am
Steve,
Inflation targeting is rather new in the world of central bank behavior. Most banks today still have a dual mandate, but they now weight more in favor of controlling inflation. Economic researchseems to indicate that inflation is the greater of the two evils(but that doesn’t mean you ignore the other).
The Fed doesn’t control inflation or growth, it more attempts to nudge it in one direction or the other.
January 24th, 2008 at 6:44 am
I normally have to pay a tax bill every April 15th, and I don’t get a refund at all. If you’re getting a tax refund, then that means you are extending a no-interest loan to the US Gov’t. That money could have been earning interest for YOU instead.
However, I’ll take the $1600 or whatever they want to give me. I sure won’t spend it, though!
re the media: It seems that everyone agrees that they are fanning the flames of this situation. However, if you base your financial decisions on media induced fear, then you are a fool.
Also, I don’t think we are currently in a recession- in fact orders for my businesses’s products are up right now. I may be eating my words in a few months, but right now I’m not seeing any losses.
January 24th, 2008 at 7:46 am
The state of the economy is a little worrisome, but I know I’ll be ok now that I have control of my finances (thanks in part to your great site!).
I know for sure I will NOT be spending my rebate check when it comes - it will for sure go into savings and debt payments!
January 24th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Here’s the skinny on the rebate checks:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic and Republican congressional leaders reached a tentative deal Thursday on tax rebates of $300 to $1,200 per family and business tax cuts to jolt the slumping economy.
Families with children would receive an additional $300 per child, subject to an overall cap of perhaps $1,200, according to a senior House aide who outlined the deal on condition of anonymity in advance of formal adoption of the whole package. Rebates would go to people earning below a certain income cap, likely individuals earning $75,000 or less and couples with incomes of $150,000 or less.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:04 am
I agree with the comments surrounding the concept that our generation and those to come are being led by a government that encourages far too much consumer debt spending. How can we think any different when our government cannot work within a budget.
I think hard financial times are ahead of us as a country, and therefore for most individuals. Steering clear of the politics, I think we need to go through some significant restructuring to correct our massive national debt and work within some fiscal responsibility as a country; even if it means a number of years of hard times. Isn’t that what we have to do personally if we are to work ourselves out of debt?
January 24th, 2008 at 8:23 am
[...] was originally just going to post this as comment to a post at Get Rich Slowly, but thought I would expand it out to a full blog post [...]
January 24th, 2008 at 9:53 am
I started to write something coherent about what is worrying me, but found it too big to fit in my head at once, so here’s a partial list. I’m not a financial expert, or an analyst, and I’m just spouting what comes to mind, but this is what the inside of my head looks like on an average morning or evening commute (listening to radio news):
1.0 We’re pumping billions a month into Iraq
1.1 This money is coming from somewhere: either we are borrowing it or printing it. In either case, it is bad.
1.2 If we are printing it, I can only imagine that inflation will accelerate and the worldwide value of the dollar will continue to decline.
1.3 If we are borrowing it, could U.S. Treasury Bonds one day become as unstable as many foreign bonds?
1.4 In either case, the U.S. could see an accelerated decline fueled by overspending in the government. An economic stimulus package using funds we don’t have will only exacerbate the problems of increasing the money supply and borrowing from the rest of the world.
2.0 The housing bubble seems to have been partially caused by easy mortgage requirements, and those requirements are being tightened in the wake of the derivative securities implosion.
2.1 I’ve never heard this said, but it seems to me that the easy mortgage requirements were partially fueled by the financial industry’s need for more mortgages to create more derivative securities to make more money selling them to investors world wide.
2.2 Mortgage default rates were artificially low because the housing bubble allowed a form of individual Ponzi scheme: take a mortgage you can’t afford, ride it for a while, and take out a bigger mortgage you can’t afford to avoid default. Rinse and Repeat. It also worked in the housing speculation bubbles in Florida, California, and Arizona: people were buying unbuilt houses they couldn’t afford with the expectation that they could sell the finished house for a tidy return. Often the sale was to another investor who could not afford the full mortgage, but took an interest-only or minimum-payment loan with the expectation of holding the property for a year or two and selling it again for a tidy sum. These schemes are no longer possible, and we’re just starting to learn the implications. During 2007 in Massachusetts the number of foreclosures was double that of 2006. Barring artificial intervention, I expect that to go up further next year.
2.3 The financial implications of the failing mortgage-backed derivative securities is wider than we know: could it be that my local bank has invested in them as a safe, guaranteed vehicle for securing returns on some of their deposits? If so, does the cost of a failed security fall on them or on the originator of the securities?
2.4 Even if the default rate on mortgages is eased by preventing scheduled rate hikes or stopping foreclosure, what is the implication when the securities no longer pay the rates they advertised: is this a further liability for the big financial houses that underwrote the derivatives?
3.0 I wonder if the stock market decline over the past few months is related to the the mortgage issue in other ways: were people betting home equity on the market? Or were they investing discretionary income that was subsidized by debt load?
3.1 Since debt was so prevalent in other parts of the economy, how much leveraging are we seeing in investor’s accounts? I haven’t heard any media coverage of margin calls, but surely there must have been some during the past few weeks? I’d like to know more about that.
4.0 A friend works in the restaurant business. He said that typically credit card purchases would be 80 - 90% of their business. Leading up to the holidays, same-store sales for his restaurant chain declined and proportions reversed: cash purchases were making up 80 - 90% of their business. What does this mean? Did other restaurants experience the same thing?
4.1 I’ve heard short comments in the news about larger than normal default rates and increased late payments for credit cards.
4.2 I expect the next “surprise” to be that consumers cannot afford their plastic debt either. Many of them will have maxed their cards in an attempt to retain a house they could not afford. Card companies used to encourage home equity loans as a way to pay off bad plastic, but that option is drying up. Were I invested in a major card company like Bank of America or Capital One, I would be digging for more dirt on defaults and write-downs.
5.0 Does any of this affect me directly? If I can afford my mortgage, don’t carry credit card debt, and have money in the bank, am I safe?
5.1 This isn’t a worry, just a thought: If there is an economic stimulus package using rebates and I deposit that money in the bank or invest it in a mutual fund, does that actually fuel the part of the economy that’s suffering (the financial markets)? Is that better than if I took it out to buy 800 bags of potato chips or one flat screen TV?
5.2 I think I might re-read Terry Pratchett’s “The Color of Magic.” I know it isn’t really about economics, but it is awfully funny, and I could use a good laugh.
_______________________________
Wishing you a prosperous future
Daiko
January 24th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Daiko,
1.0 This will likely be tapering off soon
1.1 We are borrowing the money
1.3 It is not very likely so long as the US remains a developed country
1.4 Not necessarily. We need to look at the economic cost of folks making panicked, irrational decisions vs the cost of the subsidy
2.0 Tightening mortgage requirements returns us to the status quo before mortgage brokers
2.1 Easy mortgage requirements evolved because we did not have regulation into mortgage brokers effectively
2.2 Most of the foreclosure problem has now been priced in, or, has been written off. We know the quantity of subprime mortgages, we know when they reset, and we have an idea on the range of potential writeoffs
2.3 Your bank accounts (aside from investment accounts) are FDIC insured.
2.4 Those lesser payouts have been written off
3.0 The stock market is being dragged down for many reasons.
3.1 Margins are regulated
4.0 Your friend is just one observation. We can’t really assume anything from it with any reliability
4.1 Yes, this is expected in conjuction with the mortgage problems. This same process occurred in Britian, and they’re okay now.
4.2 Credit card defaults are not rising…yet
5.0 In the long run, a recession will not affect a responsible person such as yourself to a large degree.
5.1 It doesn’t matter. It’s not designed to help folks like yourself. It’s supposed to give some room to folks who are strapped (it may prevent defaults and other things.
January 24th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
[...] But was really relieved after reading the following from commenter “JerichoHill” on the Getting Rich Slowly blog: I’m an actual federal government economist and I will happy answer any questions as best I [...]
January 24th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
I agree. If I do receive a tax credit from the “we f’d things up now we’re trying to cover our butts stimulus package”, I’m going to throw it into savings or pay off some bills. Why should I spend it because they say so? Why give them the satisfaction?
And why not let the economy ride through the tough times? They’re always telling us to hold tight on our stocks and retirement funds, which is good advice. Why can’t the same be applied to the economy?
January 24th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Jericho: thanks for all the answers.
I understand what you mean when you say the losses are written off, but those write offs have prompted the likes of Citigroup and Merrill Lynch to sell large amounts of stock at low prices just to keep cash flowing. Am I wrong to think that those write offs resulted in a substantial watering down of the stock already held by investors, and may still be compromising liquidity for those institutions?
As for margins: If I understand the way it works, regulation does not prevent people from being soaked by their own leveraged positions. It just reduces the rate and extent of that soaking by limiting how leveraged a speculator can be. There must have been margin calls over the last few weeks: I’m wondering what the experience was like and how it affected the individuals, in part because my own philosophy is “don’t buy on margin,” but I know that people smarter than me (maybe even some of those who calculated that the mortgage backed derivatives would be safe in aggregate) believe differently.
Also: I’m not one of the panicking public, I’m mostly puzzling this stuff out and trying to learn how it really works. I do think this time represents as much opportunity as disaster. I like to think of a market decline like we’ve seen since December as my chance to get bargains. I’m buying into a full-market index fund monthly, and every decline is a chance to buy more shares for the same amount of money
Since I’m holding the shares for the long term, my existing holdings (while theoretically worth less) are still my existing holdings. I haven’t lost anything, and I’ve gained the chance to have more than would have been possible in the higher market.
_______________________________
Wishing you a prosperous future
Daiko
January 25th, 2008 at 3:56 am
Daiko,
We now know that the Monday’s worldwide downturn and the Fed lowering the interest rate was caused by a rogue French options trader who concealed 5 billion worth of bad bets. Thus, the decline on Monday wasn’t related to the overall macroeconomic picture…and neither was the Fed’s rate cut. Sadly, no one knew about this until yesterday, including the Fed!
January 25th, 2008 at 5:42 am
I’m afraid what the economy is experiencing now is the tip of the iceberg (pardon the cliche). Next to collaspe in this house of cards are the insurance companies that insured the mortgage back securities. I wonder who is going to bail them out?
January 25th, 2008 at 6:43 am
[...] Many PF bloggers have already sounded off on what they’ll do with the money. Some will save; some will be patriotic and [...]
January 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am
A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however based upon slow housing and decreases in stock values and employment, the economy is slowing. Secondly, we are not in a recession BUT remember our economy is consumer driven. The high debt rates, sub-prime mortgage crisis, lowest personal savings rate since 1933 (-.5%) are going to affect consumer strength.
The government thinks that lowering the cost of money (Fed Funds Rates) and borrowing more money to throw into the hands of consumers to spend will lessen the drop of stock prices and have a positive affect on the economy to save us from a recession. But this never makes sense for the long-term.
The real question may be for people to ask themselves: Are you in a “personal recession?” Is your debt to income ratio too high, are you saving money or living paycheck-to-paycheck? If so, considering the affect the economy may have, it may be wise to reduce debt and spending, but keep an overall positive attitude that the sky isn’t falling.
When all of us consumers start doing a better job of this, we will have more money to spend to make the economy better.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Jerico: thanks for the interpretive comment. I heard the story about the rogue trader’s $6 billion in bad bets, but did not understand that it was a big part of the Monday declines.
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Daiko
January 25th, 2008 at 10:02 am
With respect to ING Direct, you might consider getting an account with Vanguard. My money market account with them is at 4.48%. Obviously that might change with the rate. But it also makes it really easy to move savings in excess of what I planned to save into mutual funds.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Did anyone see the Republican debate last night? I want to point out I’m not a Rep, never voted for Rep but it was a good debate. Huckabee cracked me up when he said that most people will buy goods imported from China with their rebate, so whose economy would really be stimulated by this rebate, ours or China? As nutty as he is I thought it was one of his saner points.
My biggest hope from the debate was when Romney and maybe Giuliani mentioned allowing those who make under 200K a year to not pay taxes on interest earned on saving accounts–to encourage people to save. Did anyone else catch this? If that happens, I’ll be really excited.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:30 am
JD,
First, I’d like to commend you for your very guarded comments. Knowing what you don’t know and being frank about it is a true sign of wisdom. When it comes to the economy, which is really the collective actions of billions of people, the average person knows about 1%. The smarter ones among us probably know about 2-3%. In the grand scheme of things, all of us know next to nothing and yet we have survived just fine. True danger arises when some smart ones think that they know twice as much and begin to offer “answers” and “solutions”.
Second, I did a study of all Fed rate cuts of more than 200bp in history and their subsequent impacts on the stock market. I’d like to share with your blog readers.