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Berkshire Hathaway held its annual shareholders meeting over the weekend. The company, run by Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett (the world’s richest man, and one of my personal heroes), continues to do well, though Buffett warned shareholders not to expect continued stellar returns as in years gone by. “Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock,” Buffett said. “It isn’t going to happen. I think we’re going to get decent results over time, but we’re not going to get indecent results.”
I had a chance to attend this year’s gathering, which drew around 31,000 people to Omaha, Nebraska. I’m not a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, but I had access to a ticket. Ultimately, I didn’t have time, and it was difficult to justify the cost. Instead, I spent part of the weekend reading some of Warren Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders, for which he is well-known. Though these letters include plenty of numbers, they’re interspersed with practical investment advice, astute observations on the economy, and lots of folksy humor. His 1997 letter contains some advice appropriate to our current volatile market.
A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.
But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.
That’s the portion of the letter that is most often quoted. But I think the next few paragraphs are just as interesting because they demonstrate how he puts this philosophy into practice.
For shareholders of Berkshire who do not expect to sell, the choice is even clearer. To begin with, our owners are automatically saving even if they spend every dime they personally earn: Berkshire “saves” for them by retaining all earnings, thereafter using these savings to purchase businesses and securities. Clearly, the more cheaply we make these buys, the more profitable our owners’ indirect savings program will be.
Furthermore, through Berkshire you own major positions in companies that consistently repurchase their shares. The benefits that these programs supply us grow as prices fall: When stock prices are low, the funds that an investee spends on repurchases increase our ownership of that company by a greater amount than is the case when prices are higher. For example, the repurchases that Coca-Cola, The Washington Post and Wells Fargo made in past years at very low prices benefitted Berkshire far more than do today’s repurchases, made at loftier prices.
At the end of every year, about 97% of Berkshire’s shares are held by the same investors who owned them at the start of the year. That makes them savers. They should therefore rejoice when markets decline and allow both us and our investees to deploy funds more advantageously.
So smile when you read a headline that says “Investors lose as market falls.” Edit it in your mind to “Disinvestors lose as market falls — but investors gain.” Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: “Every putt makes someone happy.”)
It’s sensible advice, but so easy to forget when you see the value of your invetments plummeting. And this is just one part of one shareholder letter. I still have more than twenty others left to read!
Though I didn’t have the time to make the pilgrimage to Omaha this year, the opportunity may present itself in the future. I hope so. I think it’d be a kick to attend this “Woodstock for capitalists”, which apparently includes an exhibit hall filled with vendors from the companies Berkshire Hathaway owns.
[Warren Buffett's annual letters to shareholders]
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May 5th, 2008 at 5:26 am
My husband and I remind ourselves, regularly - almost every morning when we watch the news, that a down market allows us to by stocks/funds at a bargain.
Its easy to get sucked in by the daily doom and gloom but if you remind yourself that you are in for the long haul then a down market is actually to your benefit.
This is true for the real estate market too.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:02 am
Everyone knows to buy low and sell high. Knowing and doing are two different things. Their actions are more consistent with buy high and sell low.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:10 am
B. Smith is right - our actions often betray what we know to be the right choice. That’s why personal finance is so tough.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:11 am
It’s interesting to note that the stock market is the only “market” in the world where consumers do not like to see a “sale.”
In the long-term, as Buffett has iterated, the prudent investor makes tremendously more money during down markets than in up markets.
With regard to Berkshire, I would be tempted to buy shares if Buffett were 10 years younger. Buffett’s name represents a significant portion of the value built in to the shares. When he dies, I imagine shares of his company will drop sharply, at least in the short-term, especially if his death comes sooner than later.
I hope he lives long but his words and wisdom will always be with us, regardless of his fate…
Thanks for the post…
May 5th, 2008 at 6:28 am
I want prices of the stocks I own to go higher and the rest to go lower, so I can buy them if neccessary
May 5th, 2008 at 7:04 am
@ The Financial Philosopher:
“When he dies, I imagine shares of his company will drop sharply, at least in the short-term, especially if his death comes sooner than later.”
True, but the drop will be temporary. The intrinsic value wil not change: Coca-Cola, GEICO, See’s Candies, and all the other Berkshire-Hathaway companies will go on uninterrupted. Buffett has a succession plan in place, so when (or if? :)) this unfortunate event takes place, it would be a great day to buy.
@ JD:
By the way, I attended their meeting and it was brilliant - a Woodstock in every senseof the word, with a record 31,000 people in attendance! The exhibit hall was great, and all of the products there were being sold at a significant discount. (I managed to get a brand new edition of “Poor Charlie’s Almanack” for 20% off.)
Could you post a link to the page with all the annual letters? I don’t have it at my hand, but I’m sure your readers would appreciate this free resource of financial wisdom.
Hope to see you there next year!
May 5th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders
I picked up a copy of “Poor Charlie’s” via Amazon just last week. It’s sitting on my bedstand. Great stuff.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:18 am
This is why, when the stock market is “down”, Dave Ramsey squawks, “You’re at K-Mart and the blue light is flashing!”
He knows that 97% of the rolling 5 year periods in the stock market’s history have made money, and 100% of the 10 year periods have as well.
May 5th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Just returned from Omaha. With a couple exceptions, I’ve attended every Berkshire annual meeting over the past decade and a half. Being at the meeting in person is worth every penny it takes to get there. The intangible, psychic rewards alone are worth it. I’ve already made my hotel reservations for next year.
If I’d only discovered Berkshire about a quarter century earlier…
May 5th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Excellent article! I’ve been enjoying getting my retirement mutual funds at a discount the past 6 months.
May 5th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Dang it JD! I would’ve gone to Omaha. I’ve been meaning to go for two years now, but convinced myself not to this year. I’m going next year for sure.
May 5th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I’m paying attention to Mr. Buffett’s statement that we shouldn’t expect “stellar returns” ever again, but only “decent growth”. I think he’s being grounded and realistic in this. I also think that the recent downturn in retail is bringing us into a more sustainable situation — and that there is still plenty for all of us in an economy that becomes right-sized. More at Diamond-Cut Life, http://alison97215.wordpress.com.
May 5th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Off topic, but I question Warren Buffet right now because of his lack of concern with an issue about the environment he has the power to fix right now: I read an article in the SF Chronicle Magazine two weeks ago about Buffet stonewalling Yurok tribal leaders who are trying to get the hydroelectric company he owns, PacifiCorp Power, to address the salmon population issues caused by daming up the Klamath River.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Wasn’t it Buffet who said, “Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy?”
May 6th, 2008 at 12:09 am
I went … it was like Woodstock, and Warren and Charlie even signed T-shirts and books for all (hundreds) of International Shareholders … I brought my passport so that I looked like a ‘foreigner’.
His advice, as usual, was excellent … but, too many questions from the audience were political/irrelevant/cr*p. AJC.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
@ Alyson Wiley:
Buffett has been saying the same thing for decades. He may be right this time, but his Berkshire-Hathaway is still better than 95% of the rest of the market.
@ Katrina R: When Buffett bought a piece of PacifiCorp, he had to sign a contract that he would not intervene with its actions. In other words, he wouldn’t be able to do a thing about the Klamath River dam even if he wanted to.
Oh, and it’s Buffett with two t’s, not “Buffet.” :^p
@AJC:
I second that… I really wish they pre-screen questions. Three (!) q’s from the Klammath River hippies, 1 from the religious guy from Oklahoma, and 1 from the Florida lady who just kept going on and on about how she teaches her students. *sigh* We could’ve had 5 normal (or good, if we’re lucky) questions instead of those..
May 8th, 2008 at 2:59 am
This is a little disingenous. We all know it’s not quite as simple as that. You buy hamburgers and cars to consume/use, not as an investment.
Falling stock prices are good if you want to buy stocks but it’s not so good for stocks you already own. Once you buy them, you want them to rise.
There are parallels to the housing market as well, of course. Personally I’m cheering the falls in house prices because I would like to buy a house in the medium term future. I wouldn’t be happy if I already owned a house though.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I hope that everyone understands the wisdom that warren espouses. when he buys stock he is not actually buying stock. He is buying a company that he wants to be profitable and generally is very profitable.
The key to his ways is buy a business that uses its money wisely and reinvests it in those things that are also profitable. The effect in turn effects stock price which in the long run goes up.
May 8th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
@ Caitlin:
“Once you buy them, you want them to rise.”
And they will - over long term. Well, unless the company you’ve invested in went belly up… (Which is why Buffett recommends index funds for beginner investors.) Give it enough time, and things will even out and get better.
When the prices are low, it’s a good time to buy. When they eventually get high again, it’s a good time to either sell or keep them and gloat.