“What will it take to make Americans save more?” wonders Michelle Singletary in her latest column at The Washington Post. Singletary points to a recent survey that reveals Americans know they’re not saving but they just don’t care enough to change. (I recommend reading Singletary’s article via the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, where there are fewer ads and no pagination problems.)
What’s the root of the problem?
- Our homes are more expensive.
- We’re consuming high-tech gadgets like high-def television and high-speed internet.
- The costs of core components of our lifestyle — like health care and education — are increasing faster than inflation.
- We’re more willing to take on debt.
The floundering economy isn’t helping. “Slightly more than half of middle-class respondents said they’ve had to reduce their spending in the past year,” Singletary writes, “and they expect to have to continue these cutbacks in the year ahead.”
Why? Because nearly everyone (including the people I talk to in real-life) believes that we are entering — or have already entered — a recession. Americans my age (and younger) have never lived through a prolonged economic downturn. We don’t know what it’s like. We don’t understand the skills required to weather the storm. (Yes, I know the economy struggled earlier in the decade, but not like this.)
While the government may be slow to acknowledge the recession, the average person is already feeling it. Though the politicians may be turning a blind eye during this election year, Warren Buffett knows:
Asked by Germany’s “Der Spiegel” weekly whether he thinks the U.S. could still avoid a recession, he said that as far as the average person is concerned, it’s already here. “I believe that we are already in a recession,” Buffett was quoted by “Spiegel” as saying. “Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. … But people are already feeling the effects of a recession.”
Among the friends I talk to, this is certainly true. It’s even true at the box factory. Though I no longer work there, I keep in touch. Business has been slow. Very slow — not just for us, but all over the city. We’ve always said that boxes are a sort of “leading economic indicator”. When orders are down, I worry about what this means for the economy as a whole.
I also fear that the lack of savings among average Americans could cause real problems if the recession is lengthy or severe. If we, as a country, have no savings and are deep in debt, how are we going to manage?
Personally, I’m not feeling the pinch yet. Because I’m now working from home, gas prices aren’t affecting me. Food prices are shocking, but we’ve been eating out less, and soon our garden will be providing fresh produce. Meanwhile, I’ve begun to protect myself with an emergency fund and retirement savings. The future doesn’t frighten me as much as it might have in the past.
What about you? Are you feeling the effects of a recession? What changes have you made to cope with the current economy? Are you saving more now than you were five years ago? Or are you one of those who hasn’t found the will to change? Do you worry that you’ll have to dip into your emergency fund or retirement savings to make ends meet? If you’re not in the United States, what’s life like in your country? I’m curious how others are coping, and whether or not it makes a difference how much money you’ve saved.
In her article, Michelle Singletary writes, “I am not — like many people — bemoaning the economic downturn. I think that in one respect it’s a good thing. It’s what this consumer-driven, debt-laden country needed.” Sounds like a little bit of tough love. But you know what? She may be right.
Thanks to Tim and Kristina for forwarding these articles.
This article is about Economics, News, Planning Tuesday, 27th May 2008 (by J.D. Roth)


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May 27th, 2008 at 5:45 am
If we’re in a recession, shouldn’t we at least have ONE quarter of negative GDP? Just one?
As it stands, the economy is still growing. Just wait until we DO get one negative quarter of growth. The media will have a field day.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:47 am
I’ve noticed my own food and fuel bills slowly creeping up over the past months. So far, it hasn’t affected me terribly. However, I know others who are really being squeezed by the increases, and there’s always the threat of job loss hanging over my head and everyone else’s. So I’ve been pulling back my spending for a while now, just in case, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:49 am
I tend to agree with Michelle’s analysis that a slowdown may be what the country needs; however, it still is painful to experience regardless of your financial condition. I consider myself to be very responsible financially with a healthy emergency fund, retirement savings, and zero non-mortgage debt as a single, late-twenties management consultant. I haven’t planned on changing my spending/saving habits because I believe that I have been somewhat responsible all of my life. What does bother me a bit (and it may be another topic for another time) is the idea that all Americans are being penalized for the financial attitudes of a subset of the country, yet not everyone is treated similarly when it comes to assistance. This may be extremely selfish of me since I am not in horrible shape financially, but I used the Rebate Calculator on the IRS’s website to estimate my portion of the economic stimulus package and it came out to $71. My AGI is not that much more than the $75,000 cutoff for the full $600. So I am expected to shoulder an equal share of the economic slowdown; however, I can’t fully take part in the government’s ’solution’ to jump start the economy. So I will take the $71 and fill up my gas tank a couple of times, and those dollars will ultimately end up helping to fund another glistening condo project in Dubai or a corrupt gas conglomerate in Russia - hardly the result that the US government was looking for.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:54 am
@Ron
You’re assuming the initial estimates, which are highly prone to error (on average, they change an absolute value of 2 percentage points from initial to final) don’t change. By getting hung up on an initial estimate number, you completely miss the more tangible point that growth has slowed down, inflation is definitely up, and the economy isn’t in great shape and some folks are going to feel the pinch.
That said, cutting consumption of things you dont really need is probably good advice anytime.
JD was wrong to prognisticate a recession, though. It is at least somewhat probable that we’re in the worst of it now.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:00 am
@JerichoHill
All I’m asking for is one quarter of no growth. Using the standard deviation argument means that we could be at 2.6% growth UP or 1.4% DOWN.
Just one quarter, just one.
The problems is that people associate slow growth with “recession” because we’re used to huge gains in home equity, huge gains in the stock market, and huge gains in business growth.
I’m asking for ONE quarter, but economists the world over agree that the definition of a recession is TWO quarters of negative growth. We haven’t even been able to get ONE (as if that’s something we should strive for).
As far as getting “hung up” on initial estimates, the media is hung up on oil prices alone as an indicator of recession, or people’s opinion (as opposed to data), or even whether a majority of CFO’s believe we’re in one (that was on Paul Harvey).
I’m not hung up on anything but the evidence and the data. Show me the data that we’re in negative growth and I’ll change my tune.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Over the last 2 years we have eliminated our credit card debt, about $15,000. Our house payment is 25% of our tke home pay. Over the last 6 months we have socked more than a $1000 a month into savings. I recently just got offered a job in another city making more than I do now. Because f our savings I can take the job, afford to relocate and I dont have to sell my current home right now to make the move. So yes savings has given me the buffer I need in this economic downturn!
May 27th, 2008 at 6:19 am
@Ron is correct in his statement that we aren’t officially in a recession. We should be careful what we say and how we say it. Things like that have a tendency to be self fulfilling prophecies.
Now that we have that out of the way…
The economy is slow and is not doing well. Pundits and politicians aren’t helping things with their daily cry. While it is tough to live through, it is part of a larger economic cycle. It will hurt but we will live through it. The worse is past us unless the government does something stupid.
If you are smart you will learn from it. Increase your savings to increase your safety net. Eliminate debt to remove risk. Wait…Isn’t that personal finance 101? Dave Ramsey Baby Steps 1 and 2? Sorry, I’m a bit sarcastic today.
As for how it affects me…Very little. I sell to the oil industry so I’m in a boom time. It wasn’t that way several years ago. I found myself without an income the summer of 2001. It took several months but I found a better job in a strong industry. The ironic thing is that it was the best thing that could have happened. That could only be seen as hindsight, at the time it wasn’t fun. Unemployment was on the rise, add in September 11, and the job market was a mess.
If I had not been debt free and had a significant savings things would have worked out differently. While I didn’t enjoy the experience it didn’t break us. It opened up opportunities. It allowed me to move back into an industry where I was an expert. We came out ahead in the end.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:19 am
This topic has been on my mind quite a lot recently, not because I believe we are or will be in a recession, but because of the fiscal policies proposed by the Democrat presidential candidates, and I fully expect one of them to be in office in January. Both Democrat candidates propose massive tax increases for those Americans who are the likely readers of this blog.
When you couple those tax increases with the rising cost of fuel, to be quite frank: I have no idea how I’m going to survive the next 4 years.
Now, I am not interested in a political debate, and I don’t mean to turn this into one by bringing up the election. And, no, I don’t like McCain either and won’t be voting for any of the top 3 contenders, so don’t start thinking I’m a Republican - I’m not. Anyway…
I’m not trying to lay gloom & doom here, but here is what I predict:
- a Democrat will win the presidential election in November
- a willing Congress will go along with that president’s tax proposals, resulting in huge increases for the majority of GRS readers
- gas & diesel per-gallon prices will cross the $10 barrier within 5 years, probably sooner
- that higher fuel price will cause the costs of everything shipped to go up (airline tickets, but we already see that; FedEx, and we already see that; food; big box store items; literally everything)
I know this sounds trite, but we have real problems that demand real solutions. Some of those problems are:
- Social Security. The question is not whether it will fail, but when.
- Energy. We need a renewable, domestically produced energy resource.
Nobody in Washington wants to talk about Social Security, and when GWB tried to privatize just the tiniest bit of it, he was laughed out of DC.
Similarly, nobody in Washington wants to solve our energy situation. But the energy problem is not just with Washington: the problem is every couple or individual who needlessly purchases a 12 mpg Yukon instead of a much more efficient small car. Individually, the purchase of a larger or a smaller vehicle is not that important, but nationally it is a huge deal. If we all choose Yukons instead of Honda Civics, we end up requiring 3 times the fuel just to go the same places. However, all of us switching to Civics will not solve the problem - it will only delay the consequences.
And, no, I’m not a greenie. I can just see that worldwide demand for oil is surging, and that we here in the US&A are a huge part of that demand… though we are not really a huge part of the surge in demand - that is largely due to India and China coming online.
The part of all this that I don’t think most people realise or consider is that oil is used for everything: plastic (and everything is made out of plastic these days!!), gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, Diesel fuel, the list goes on - just look it up. Google “petroleum processing barrel of oil” or something like that, and you’ll see what all comes from oil.
And don’t forget the cost of transportation for food. When I go to the grocery store, I try to buy produce that was grown locally - if I choose to buy things from South America or somewhere else similarly distant, then there is a tremendous amount of fuel used to transport those things to me, and that is truly a waste in fuel.
Speaking of waste in fuel (and resources in general), there are a few huge wastes of resources that drive me nuts:
1- junk mail. Think about the amount of trees that must be used to print the paper that we just throw away or recycle… and consider the amount of energy used to print that junkmail, and the fuel used to ship that paper to our mailbox just so we can throw it away or recycle it.
2- bottled water. Consider that all those plastic bottles do not recycle into water bottles, and consider the amount of fuel consumed to ship that bottled water all over the place. What a waste, especially considering that most municipal water is perfectly fine.
3- people leaving their car idling for 20 minutes. Do these people not consider that they are contributing to overall demand and higher fuel prices? Germans turn their engines off at stop lights so that they can save a thimbleful of fuel… yet many here in the US&A will idle their big SUVs for half an hour - what a total waste.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to make this so long… it’s just a topic that is near & dear to my heart.
To more directly answer the question at hand: I’m not sure whether I can save enough to survive the next few years. If our federal government doesn’t start adopting pro-growth policies, we very well may find ourselves in another Great Depression in the next 10 years.
As to what I have done, we have canceled cable TV ($45/mo) and NetFlix ($19/mo), and we refinanced our mortgage (saves us ~$170/mo). But that’s still not enough - we need to cut another few $hundred from the budget… not sure where that’ll come from especially if my taxes go way up as I predict they will.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:32 am
Similar situation here in the UK, with food, fuel and utility prices on the rise.
The most notable hits have been in petrol, which in my area is now £1.10 (roughly $2) per litre. My guesstimate is that I’m now spending about 20% more on petrol every month at the moment, which is leading me to do less driving (where possible).
Wheat and dairy products are going up too, but getting away from these increases is harder to do. A 6 pint bottle of milk cost me over £2 on Saturday, where previously it cost in the region of £1.75-£1.80.
I can’t remember what the UK Government says the official rate of interest is, but in typical conversation most people don’t believe it is correct. There is comparison between the Government’s rate of interest and the consumer price index, which people tend to think of as a more accurate indicator. The cynical point of view is when a product goes up in price the Government doesn’t include that in their inflation calculations.
On the plus side, it’s making me personally more resourceful. I’m no gardener, but I’m making better use of reduced aisles and clearance shelves.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:33 am
Daniel–excellent points. It seems most Americans, especially the current generation consume for the sake of consuming. I read a great quote about irresponsible use of resources. Goes something like this “Americans won’t pay attention until it interferes with their tv reception”
May 27th, 2008 at 6:39 am
What will it take for Americans to start saving?
How about a decent rate of return on savings and not taxing interest paid on savings as normal income?
WTH does a hedge fund manager get preferential tax treatment on his income from an ordinary mortal trying to save for their future? Smarter to have HELOC debt that you can write off against your W-2 wages.
*THIS* is why no one saves anymore, and it’s not an accident how we got here.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:50 am
Recession, huh? Sounds like I need to pick up a copy of the “Get Rich Slowly - and live through the apolcoyptic recession” book. You wouldn’t leave me hanging, would you JD?
May 27th, 2008 at 6:55 am
Ron, the last recession was “called” the same month that it “ended”. Using the defintion of 2 neg Q’s GDP, the term recession is backwards looking.
As you know, the NBER “calls” a recession. But did you know that, according to the NBER, “[a] recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough.” http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
By their own definition, the US is in a recession.
As to the topic of the post: I had been doing a good job saving more over the past year, but food and energy costs have significantly impacted my ability to save consistent with the last 12 months. I don’t care what the gov’t says inflation is, my food and energy costs have risen through the roof. I have made changes in my discretionary spending as a result.
To be sure, oil has risen so fast, that companies have not been able to pass on their increased costs fast enough. I predict serious cost increases over the next 12 months…which will reducing my monthly savings even moreso.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:01 am
The perceivable differences the economic downturn has made in my life are: (i) less bang for my buck in my savings account, (ii) sky-high rent, and (iii) things are slow at work, and I’ve been made aware that money’s tight.
One positive is that I was able to purchase stock when the price was a bit lower than it had been, say, 6 months ago.
Other than that, I live in a city where my commute is via public transportation, and the price of a pass has held steady. Food costs (for me) are about the same, including going out to eat.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:16 am
The top of this post asks, in reference to large consumer appetites, higher prices, and high debt levels, “What’s the root of the problem?”
The answer to the question is purely human emotions, the most destructive of which are fear, greed and complacency. These are all symptoms of a disease called, lack of self-awareness.
Without the timeless virtues of simplicity, moderation and contentment, we fall victim to our own human excesses.
“Moderation, which consists in indifference about little things, and in a prudent and well-proportioned zeal about things of importance, can proceed from nothing but true knowledge, which has its foundation in self-acquaintance.” ~ Plato
May 27th, 2008 at 7:18 am
I’m not feeling the effects of a recession. Sure I notice prices going higher. But my house payment is only 14% of my income. I own my 2 fairly fuel efficient cars. We have job security, and plenty of cash in the bank and investments. I have no other debt and no plans to obtain any in the near future. But alas, I watch a reglar 25 inch TV and don’t own a laptop (just desktop). Also my home is only 1500 sq. ft, but somehow we make it.
But I am concerned about inflation - it is driving up the price of everything. We are certainly in a period of increasing prices. It isn’t stagflation like the 70s, it feels different.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Ron,
Estimates don’t work that way. By holding to an arbitrary rule, based on an estimate that isn’t wholly reliable, you’re committing what Diedre McCloskey and Erza Klein would call the fallacy of statistical significance. A good many economists are guilty of such.
Further, ECONOMISTS do not use the 2 quarters of negative growth as their definition of a recession. That is what is called the newspaper definition. The ECONOMIST’s definition is more clearly explicated by the NBER Recession Cycle Dating Group.
I should know. I am an economist.
EDIT: Well, obvious got to it before I did. Good job obvious.
EDIT2: To Daniel: SS didn’t need to be privatized, its a very efficient government organization. It would be fine if Congress hadn’t dipped into its funds to pay for shortfalls. Now if that’s the justification for privatization, that’s more of a damnation of a government that can’t spend as much as it earns, not an indictment of a government office that does a pretty good job with what it has.
And let’s leave the fear-mongering of “another great depression” aside. This isn’t nowhere near as bad yet as the 79-81 recession, and that’s a long ways from a great depression.
I would argue that if you’re living a GRS lifestyle, youre pretty secure.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Dave Ramsey has been on the Today Show, Larry King, and of course his own TV and Radio shows talking about the recession - or lack thereof - in the USA. My favorite quote: “The news media has predicted 38 out of the last 2 recessions” - as in, they’re pretty bad about predicting recessions. They don’t have a clue. “The Sky Is Falling” news sells a lot better than “Everything Is Just Fine” news.
As for what the average American can do? Some basic things that JD writes about on this site: Get out of debt, spend less and be frugal with purchases, save money for emergencies and retirement.
Do you really care if the sky is falling when you have a helmet that you got on a good deal?
May 27th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Looking at our local economy (which is anchored by a state university which is considered pretty recession proof) we do see people struggling, so we do believe that at least locally there are problems and so we have increased our efforts to buy locally — for example, we spent $40.00 at a local gift store rather than the same $40.00 on the target web site where our niece was registered for a baby shower. I think we are also scaling back in almost unconscious ways, by not putting ourselves in buying/spending positions.
BUT, as others have noted, it is very difficult to control some spending; if you have health care needs they have to be attended to, and it’s difficult to respond to energy and food price increases; what one can do to save usually doesn’t equal the actual increases.
I also wonder whether as people try to deal with their own situations there isn’t a spiralling effect — certainly it appears that the downturn in the housing market affects lots of other industries and so there are more and more people who aren’t directly involved but are suffering from job loss and slowdowns and their changes in buying habits affects yet other businesses and other people…
May 27th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Savings will become essential to the economy as the dollar continues to fall and foreign investors begin to reduce their investments.
Businesses need capital to grow, which they get from savings. Today, businesses are funded by savings from foreign nations.
China has a savings rate of 40-50%, which is funneled into the US as they buy US Treasure bonds and US Stocks. As the dollar drops, the return on dollar based assets is deminished, which greats better investments in other nations.
We needs to increase the saving rate to help the economy and support the dollar.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:02 am
healthcare has officially hit 30% of my annual income.
i’m this close to operating our household budget in the negative. scares me to death.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:15 am
I couldn’t possibly comment on whether or not there is an actual recession. I can say, however, that I work part time at home, which is stable income, but my husband’s company has made all sorts of changes that are really affecting us. They have cut our medical benefits (in 2005 it cost us $750 out of pocket to have a baby, if we have another this year it’ll cost us $11,000), cut bonuses to almost nothing, and cut “perks” like paid lunches (he travels 4 days/week), and raised what they pay for mileage by just $.02.
Add that to more expensive food and gas and, yeah, we’re feeling the pinch. We’re getting pinched hard.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:40 am
@Maya
I think you are right, Maya. Americans ARE “feeling the pinch”. I work for a major cellphone service provider, and there has been a noticeable increase in the number of callers reducing their cellphone service, or cancelling it entirely, early termination fees notwithstanding.
I really don’t care what the pundits say about whether or not we are in a recession. Folks ARE cutting back due to rising prices overall. The question was, “Are you feeling the effects of a recession? What changes have you made to cope with the current economy? Are you saving more now than you were five years ago?”
My answers are 1. Yes; 2. I’m driving less, purchasing less ready made and convenience food, cooking more and going out less; 3. No; 5 years ago I was in a much higher paying job, and was saving via a 401k. Other than that, I was spending all my disposable income. Today, I am just trying to get by on what I make, and barely doing it.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I’ve been at the mall twice this month. As I searched and searched for parking in a 99% full lot, my thoughts were: “What recession?” I bought a mattress set yesterday for $1000 - and had to wait 40 minutes to be rung up - that is how busy it was! (I didnt give up because it was a great sale price and I was sick of shopping around)
I lived in N.Cali in the early 90s and I felt a real recession. That is how I got into my industry - healthcare - because I thought I never wanted to live thru months of joblessness again. I had no real plan - I moved there at 22 fresh out of school.
I read an article a couple a weeks ago about SUV owners trying to sell their vehicles and there were no buyers. I groaned - because much of the America I see is that - until your average Joe encounters an economic problem (such as gas in this case) - there are no thoughts about driving a SUV as much as they like. Whereas, when gas was still affordable I was always thinking that I did not want to waste the money or resources for a senseless vehicle (to me, I know some ppl “need” one). My hope is that a large number of people ‘wake up’ and live in a way that is not wasteful - whether it is cash or resources. Suffering would be worth it in the long run if we could culturally get back on track.
Most of the time I try to live consistently under my means and whatnot. I do have trouble saving the big chunks for retirement and whatnot but I do it with a ‘marathon’ mindset. My net pay isnt that great (live in a high tax state) and with everyday prices up on things I’ve budgeted less for liquid savings and ‘blow money’. I’m still reeling from making a $1000 purchase yesterday - but I wake up in pain everyday from an old mattress that actually sprung a spring last week. I planned for it and am using my stimulus check but dang! it still hurts to fork over that kind of money. Boohoo.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I’m in Toronto, Canada and can tell you - whether the textbook definition of recession is met or not - things are definitely a little tighter. Gas is selling for a record high today (finally topping the record set after Katrina). Food is up as well, and although I don’t keep careful track of what costs what at the grocery store (something I may start doing) I can tell you that I always buy roughly the same things and this time last year I was ALWAYS well under my allotted budget and now I’m thinking I may have to increase that budget just to keep up.
Everyone I know is feeling the increases and a few have made the choice not to travel this summer or at least not as far or as often.
As for personally, it doesn’t affect me all that much. I don’t drive an awful lot - the price will have to go north of $2/l before it really starts to become an issue for me (the average price on the news this morning was $1.29/l). The food increase worries me a bit but so far not a huge issue either, if I have to reorganize in order to increase the food budget I have enough wiggle room to do that. I did plant a vegetable garden this year for the first time to try and offset some food costs and I’m really enjoying it as a hobby as well. If my yields are high enough I’ll be canning my own tomato’s for winter as well to save all year, we use a lot of tomato’s and they are one of the things that have gone up, apple juice is another that I’ve noticed particularly. My job is just about as stable as a corporate job can be - never say never, but I’m not really worried.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:56 am
to comment on Kim C’s comment and ppl scaling back on their cell plan - I sometimes wonder if consumers go into a panic, cut back sharply (even though they can truly afford it) , and that causes a ‘recession’ or at least a downturn.
Luckily I try to stay close to spend on a need only basis - I dont have a whole to give up (except maybe my $11 cable bill, but with TV going digital in 2009 I’d have to get it anyway).
May 27th, 2008 at 9:10 am
you just have to make sacrifices
i drive (a lot) less now.. i don’t take my monthly vacations to tahoe or reno anymore.. i wanted to drive to yosemite over the weekend.. but had to stay home because of gas prices
i’m into car mods.. but i’ve kept my car pretty much stock because i know i need to have a little cushion with my emergency funds.. i also have the new car itch.. but i know now is not the right time to be taking on unecessary debt
i hung out with friends for the first time in a while this weekend.. it was a great way to catch up with old buddies.. hang out.. eat.. drink.. and best of all.. it was free! plus it is good to know that you’re not alone in the struggle.. all of us are going through it (the generation x crowd).. the late 20’s / early 30 year olds still living at home with mom and pops because we have no other choice.. this is a unique generation and i know we’ll find creative ways to survive.. and make things better for ourselves.. i have faith
May 27th, 2008 at 9:22 am
FW - I can’t help but laugh when I see news stories of SUV drivers who are paying $100+ at the pump and talking about how they’ve had to give up going out. They’re the same ones who tailgate me, cut me off and zoom by doing 15 over the speed limit. Meanwhile my little sedan is driving 5 miles under the speed limit at 65 because its more fuel efficient. I’ve always been disgusted with gas guzzlers, they cost a ton to buy and they cost a ton to fill even back before gas was $2 a gallon.
to JD - the “recession” hasn’t affected us very much because we started doing a self debt reduction program earlier this year. With our budget in check we spend less and have more. The $20 extra per car to fill up these days is nothing compared to how much we aren’t spending. Our only downfall is that I’ve taken a new job and our house is going on the market. With house prices down we are forced to do a shortsale as we have barely any equity in our house in 2.5 years. I’d love it for you to do a piece on real estate…
May 27th, 2008 at 9:35 am
@FW: Funny, my wife said the same thing this past weekend on our trip to Costco and the local mall. People everywhere.
For us, the slowdown of the economy has had little to no effect on our day to day. However, we’re fortunate to “always be prepared”. I did calculate the cost savings of purchasing a fuel efficient auto in place of my Dodge 1500 (paid for), but it only begins to be a cost savings if/when gas hits $5/gal and stays there for at least 3 years.
I don’t currently *believe* that will happen for various reasons, both politically and economically motivated, but I may be changing my tune based on the first 100 days of the next Presidency.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:42 am
@Marty:
I sure hope you are right and I am wrong about gas prices. Time will tell.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I’m fortunate to be single, childless and in my mid-30s (well, fiscally fortunate, maybe not so in other ways). I’ve been debt free for a few years with a substantial emergency fund and slowly-growing retirement, and I take public transport to work and only use the car for groceries, errands, or weekend trips.
I honestly haven’t noticed much pinch personally, although my roommate and I are cutting back on our cable service, phone, and electrical use just because they’re moves that make sense.
I have noticed it at work, where relentless expense control has removed most of the perks out staff use, salary control has resulted in mass exits by people who haven’t gotten raises, and for the second year running, we’re looking at substantial headcount cuts to keep expenses down. I work in HR and am unlikely (knock wood) to get cut, but I have to be there to deliver the message to those who are. So that part has affected me personally.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:59 am
JD,
“Among the friends I talk to, this is certainly true. It’s even true at the box factory. Though I no longer work there, I keep in touch. Business has been slow. Very slow — not just for us, but all over the city. We’ve always said that boxes are a sort of “leading economic indicator”. When orders are down, I worry about what this means for the economy as a whole.
I also fear that the lack of savings among average Americans could cause real problems if the recession is lengthy or severe.”
If people save more, and thus don’t spend money on needless ’stuff’ then won’t that also trigger a recession of sorts? If people aren’t buying as much, then business will be slower, and people will be laid off and/or business will shut down because the money isn’t coming in to cover expenses.
Or else the world needs to cut back on the babies born in order to reduce the population to reduce demand. There wouldn’t be a huge number of people unemployed by work shortages.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:00 am
I agree with Idaho-spud (msg. 11). Twenty-plus years ago, credit card and other consumer debt interest was a federal and state tax deduction. Once the tax law was changed, there was a several-year phase out of the deduction and I clearly remember the banks starting to push HELOCs soon after as a way of buying stuff on credit but still being able to take the interest deduction on your taxes.
As for savings, I’m saving more now than I ever have. I got out debt except for my mortgage last October, and my mortgage payment is only 16% of my net. Yes, gas and food and other items are going up, but because there’s such a large spread between my net and my expenses now, it’s hardly noticeable.
The elephant in the room - that I’ve yet to hear any politician or media talking head address - is debt. That’s the true underlying source of the “squeeze” for many/most of the middle class.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:01 am
@ Mr. Obvious and JerichoHill
Thanks for setting me straight. The sky IS falling.
I should have know it, I’m an MBA. LOL!
Seriously, all economic thought is backward looking. It’s the nature of the beast. If economists could accurately predict the future, they would be rich beyond their wildest expectations and would sell their ideas on late night infomercials…or at least to a dot org think tank.
I believe this current overstatement of our economic problems is just part of the political season (gasp!). Isn’t it just a little odd that we’re on the edge of economic ruin during a presidential election? Of course, the candidates have ALL the answers.
This isn’t a real recession though. Only two sectors are really dragging things down: housing and the financial sector. Removing these two sectors from the calculations shows that business profits gained 15.9 percent in 2007-4 and gained around 12.0 percent during 2008-1. The strength of ‘core’ profits and of the whole US economy in the throes of the worst credit crisis since the 1930s is impressive.
But you’ll never hear that on the evening news.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:13 am
I haven’t had time to join in the conversation here, but I wanted to let you know I’ve been following along, and find it interesting. I agree that the media is far, far, far too interested in “the sky is falling” type news. And I have no idea about the technical definitions of recession, etc. But like Buffett in the quote I cited, my own anecdotal experience is that people are beginning to feel pinched in a way that I have not seen in fifteen years. What’s more, they don’t seem optimistic about the economic future. Maybe it’s just the crowd I hang with, though.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am
My understanding of recessions is that they are more accurately pinpointed in retrospect than during the time period when you are actually in them. So, debating whether we are in a recession or not is probably something best left for future dates when all of the data identifying such an event can be studied.
What can be pointed out readily is the daily travails this economic slowdown is causing to many working class and retired Americans. Whether it is the lowering of interest rates to bail out banks or to prop up Wall Street, many of us have seen our safer investments (money market accounts, bonds, CD rates) drop in earning potential. This is serious for retirees who depend on their interest rates and dividends for current income. Coupled with the obscene rise in fuel prices and the related rise in food prices and the loss of the dollar’s buying power, it’s a witch’s brew of bad times. So the fact of the matter is, it doesn’t matter if you call it an official recession or some other euphemism to obscure the seriousness of the current state of affairs, it’s not a good situation to have to deal with.
Oh, and to the people who seem to think that seeing lots of people buying things at the mall is a sign that things aren’t as bad as they seem: I would not judge the state of the economy by the spending habits of people who have been addicted to credit and ultra consumerism for decades. Drunks don’t give up the bottle in a day.
And finally, to the people who say it hasn’t affected them personally… consider this: has it slowed down your savings some? Maybe having $25 less to bank per week. You all know how that $25/ week can affect your long term savings when compounding is taken into account. Just a thought.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I saw the writing on the wall last year and started saving hard in November. We’ll be fine, but I’m worried about my fellow Americans who don’t know how to defer instant gratification and will go into debt to finance lifestyles that they can not afford.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:32 am
My husband and I have been doing fine this year, but it doesn’t feel like things are ok. I don’t go by what I read in the news, but what I experience, and from my experience it is worse than what the media says. My father has always been a a workaholic self-sufficient small business owner. Even the instance he ended up owing alot of money about 20 years ago he dug himself out of that hole with alot of hard work, paid back all debts and owned his own business (restaurant) again. Well, until now. Restaurant business had fallen off in the past couple of years. Rather than selling his restaurant, decides to use whatever money he saved and using his town home as collateral, to open another restaurant, hoping that would do well enough that could be his mainstay, and sell the other restaurant. Well that might have worked in the past, but there was a good reason why his first restaurant wasn’t doing so well, the economy. Needless to say this was not a good time to open another restaurant. He had to close the second restaurant 6 months after he opened it, and due to the losses he sustained may have to sell his car, his townhome, and possibly liquidate his first restaurant just to pay back debts. So my Dad is faced with at 74 no job, no assets, no retirement savings. Likewise my 3 siblings are facing unemployment as they work for him, with yep, you guessed it no emergency savings. They have actually taken pay cuts to try keep the restaurant going.
My mother is 65, but as she only receives $500 a month from SS, works part-time. She confided in me about a month ago she had taken out a heloc, originally to fix up her house to sell, and ended up using the money for basic repairs (broken pipe, hole in roof) and basic expenses. The heloc is coming due in 2 years, the house is not in sell-ready condition (plus it’s value has declined) and she doesn’t even have the money to pay her property taxes.
My family is not perfect; they have made many mistakes, but their not being prepared financially coupled with the crappy economy and rising costs have made for them, and many others “a perfect storm”.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:57 am
I certainly agree that Americans need to work on spending less than they earn. We are pushing toward the same set of conditions that caused the Great Depression.
I also agree that a true recession could be in our near future. However, I’m not so sure we are facing that situation just yet. My father is a self-employed aeronautical engineer. He is certified by the FAA to approve designs for airplane modifications. His work in this industry means he is usually one of the first to be affected by any economic struggle.
Business is not slow for him right now. In fact, he has been so busy lately that he had to work for a few hours yesterday - Memorial Day. We may be on the verge of a recession, and there are definitely a few markets that are really struggling, but to say that we are in the middle of one is, I think, premature.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:19 am
The secret has been published on this very blog: Stop buying crap.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:32 am
I just yesterday signed up to put 15% of my pay into deferred comp. This will be in addition to the $100 a week I put into ING Direct for after tax liquid savings.
I have no debt except my house and I’m paying an exra $125 a month on the principal.
Right now, I’m looking for a really good foreign index fund to invest that $100 bucks a week now that I’ve got my 3-6 month emergency fund.
My mom and dad dragged me to see Dave Ramsey when he was in town. I thought to myself “This dude is totally preaching to the choir.” But since that night I’ve completely turned my financial life around. Just in time too it seems!
May 27th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Oh, and one more thing to those people who say they haven’t felt the effects of the current economic conditions: perhaps you are like the frog in a pot of water to which heat is applied over a long period to bring it to a boil.
Personally, the savings goals I have set for myself are becoming more difficult to meet, which is particularly depressing since I have finally rededicated myself to a more measured lifestyle only to watch as my sacrifices to get to this point are suddenly approaching inadequate. I have tried to balance a robust savings plan without being miserly. I am not struggling yet, as I can always scale back on my savings goals to meet the rise in prices of food and fuel. But if things continue the way they have of late, this is certainly going to have an adverse impact on my ability to meet the long-term goals I have set.
Here’s a tip for you all if you haven’t done so already: stock up on food! Considering the rate at which food prices are rising, you’ll probably get a better return on that than if your money is in the bank.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:50 am
@Mike
Yeah, I tend to agree with you - the world needs to cut back on the baby-making (especially in poorer countries). But THAT’S an argument that people get REALLY emotional about and trot out bizarre statistics to prove their point that everybody should just keep on propogating their gene pools….
But yeah — totally makes sense: Fewer people, fewer resources needed. It won’t happen, though.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:52 am
it’s hard because we often don’t build savings into our budgets (if we have budgets!). i’m just getting to the “savings” goal, and i’m already 30!
May 27th, 2008 at 11:56 am
America needs a Crap Detox. Then a recession wouldn’t matter either way.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
JD, I usually really like the articles, but I think saying “(Yes, I know the economy struggled earlier in the decade, but not like this.)” is just way out of line. It’s completely baseless. I think of the article was that most Americans are already stretched too thin as it is and what will happen if it gets worst. But making statements like the above makes me (and presumably others) miss that salient point.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
when everyone is saying we are in a recession, the sky is falling, and constantly getting slammed by negative info, of course people are going to feel down. despite all the sky is falling, the job market is still steady.
i’m with FW, i’ve been to the malls the past month, people driving in suv’s by themselves, no one car pooling, and my wife and i are constantly saying what recession where is the pain everyone is talking about? the restaurants are full, the malls are full, it was crazy this past weekend, and the weekend before that, and the weekend before that etc. maybe everyone is using their rebate checks, but who knows.
on the flip side, i was waiting at the very long atm line, there were 8 people in front of me. only 2 people were able to get cash out of the machine (i think 1 tried two cards, though), while 6 attempted to use at least 2 cards, but went away without cash. my wife and i amused at the situation, because what are people thinking that overnight somehow more credit appeared on their card, or money mysteriously showed up in their checking/savings accounts?
May 27th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
A few things I’ve started doing directly because of the economic pinch:
*Almost always driving at 65 MPH or below
*Parking the car and walking in at fast food joints instead of taking the drive-through
*Combining trips–doing as many tasks as I can on each driving trip
Basically, I’ve started regularly, consciously modifying my driving habits (which I should have been doing all along) to save some money to help counteract the higher gas prices.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
It’s not a black/white picture. Both of the following are true:
1) Americans are too materialistic and buy too much stuff. We love to eat out and buy status symbols.
2) Health insurance is skyrocketing and people are paying more and more for it. Housing prices became inflated in many parts of the country. This is dropping a bit, but not enough for us responsible renters who didn’t get in on the financial irrationality. Gas prices are very high. Even if one limits driving, it still eats in. Food costs too. I’ve already gone to all generic. What will I do if it continues?
Personally, my hubby and I are in a good place. We’re living on one income while he pursues a higher degree. I know we can do this now. Also, we have savings and my job is pretty secure. So I’m fine. But yes, I worry. Not everyone feeling the pinch is irresponsible. I don’t buy much.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
very insightful article. I personally have been feeling the affects of the recession. I drive to work and notice that food prices are goin up substantially (I don’t grow my own produce).
I believe the lack of interest in savings comes from the generations that we grew up with. Each generation is vastly different. Most baby boomers have been the backbone for this society. Initially they spent a lot and saved little. Most of their savings were thought to be social security. Now that they realize that we are seeing greater inflation and healthcare costs. Our generation(meaning generation X and Y), who have been taught by our parent’s also want to save less and spend more.
Now that people are seeing a tighter crunch in the economy and debt is getting out of control people are learning to spend less. Most people aren’t saving now because they are so busy paying off debt that they are trying to get rid of. The recession will also hurt people as jobs get cut and the overall economy turns downward. I just hope that I am able to pay off my debts and begin investing more towards savings soon.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Ron @ 34. You said:
Only two sectors are really dragging things down: housing and the financial sector. Removing these two sectors from the calculations shows that business profits gained 15.9 percent in 2007-4 and gained around 12.0 percent during 2008-1. The strength of ‘core’ profits and of the whole US economy in the throes of the worst credit crisis since the 1930s is impressive.
Try this with your MBA:
“Take away Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips and profits at U.S. companies are the worst in at least a decade.
Without the $70 billion that oil producers earned in the last two quarters, profits at companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 26 percent and 30.2 percent, the biggest decreases for any quarter since Bloomberg started compiling data in 1998.
Energy companies made up almost half the income growth reported by S&P 500 companies in the first three months of 2008 as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, the data show.”
May 27th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
I agree with Singletary in that the recession is not all bad and that recessions are vital to the growth of our economy, a necessary correction. I also recognize how elitist this must sound to an average person who recently lost his or her job. However, hopefully the problems in housing recently will convince people not to use their homes like piggy banks and the spike in gas prices will convince people to finally seek more fuel-efficient options.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
@ Mr. Obvious:
That’s fantastic! The oil ETF (USO) I bought in August at $54.88 is up to $104 and change! Woohoo!
May 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I’m slightly concerned that I’m missing something. I haven’t particularly noticed increasing prices in the shops. My mortgage payment is constant, and I don’t drive. Hopefully I’m right, and not deluding myself
.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
I’ve been making a few minor changes…
First, I’m driving less by combining trips and using public transport more often. Where I live, a monthly bus pass is $45, so this is a no brainier - after about four days in the month it pays for itself in gas savings. And plus I love being able to read on my way to work now.
I’m using my cell phone a bit less and using Skype more, which has shaved a bit off my monthly bill.
And I’m being a bit more careful when I’m shopping, which I should have done awhile back. Sometimes I can be an impulse spender, and that’s not good.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
I told closer friends US economy was heading for disaster a few years ago based on US deficit and global political situation. They said I was wrong, but now the same friend has lost his job, I’m not happy about it, I can be next. Things will be clear once this election ends. If I were you, I will start changing my dollars to euros and hold on to your property, if you rent and have money, I think it is better to buy some property now. Later will be too late. My prediction is dollar will go down even more and prices of everything will go really really high. I told ya.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
To some extent I’ve felt the current economic adjustments, and to some extent I haven’t. I have a high level of job security, a decent middle-class salary, and save 25-30% of my yearly income, so I don’t feel like the framework of my social existence is in any immediate jeopardy. On the other hand, I work for a state with significant economic challenges, and I haven’t had a real raise–or even a real cost-of-living increase–in a few years. In effect, despite my general sense of security, I do wonder how things may be 5, 10, or more years down the road.
With my retirement savings, emergency fund, frugality, and inner resourcefulness, I sense that I can deal with minor and major upheavals reasonably well. However, I fear that the economic foundation of my country (the U.S.) is crumbling (actually, has been crumbling for decades), and current economic realities (not just the economic downturn as such, but also the country’s debt structure, excessive spending, etc.) do not bode well for the country’s future, economic or otherwise.
Though higher energy prices and food costs have me on guard, I’m way more concerned about this country’s overall development as a debt-laden service (as opposed to manufacturing) economy, including the fact that many or most of the people in this country also take on too much debt and spend way too much of their own (and creditors’) money on unneeded junk. When I think of this big picture, it just doesn’t look promising.
But in the meantime, I’m just trying to spend as little as possible, save as much as possible, and try to enjoy the journey, whatever it may be….
May 27th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
In order to save money a person needs to spend less than they earn.
That model should start from our government as an example.
As the end of the cash usually arrives before the end of the month everyone should remove cash from their account as they get paid and get it invested.
You won’t miss it.
Much.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I agree with Plonkee I haven’t noticed any change in my grocery prices here in Canada. I don’t drive but I am aware of increasing fuel prices (although I’m from the UK so I still think they are pretty cheap here and in the states- sorry!).
I try to be sensible with my spending and saving habits and so far the only direct change for me is the fuel surcharge on my holiday flights this year.
I do wonder if the increases seen by American commenters is almost a correction of sorts? I would consider the prices of many goods in the US ridiculously cheap compared with European and even Canadian prices.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
I haven’t noticed anything beyond the rising gas and food prices, but everybody is experiencing that. I experienced my own personal “economic downturn” during 2001 - freshly graduated with a comp sci degree, and competing with other people from the dot com bust. For two years, I did data entry, pinched pennies, and bemoaned my unfortunate timing. I finally got a real job related to the comp sci field in 2003…in a financial company that originated subprime mortgage loans (yes, now bankrupt).
I didn’t mean to follow bubbles - in fact, thanks to my two years of hardship, it has taught me to save up $$ so that when I got laid off last year, I was in a much better position than back in 2001 (plus this bubble isn’t related to my field).
Previous posters bring up a good point - there’s something funky happening with the economy right now, so if everybody has the saving mindset, doesn’t that imply slowdown to economy which then affects companies/jobs?
One more thing to note: HELOCs allowed people to borrow more $. Some people called it using their house as an ATM. I don’t think “ATM” is used accurately as it implies a stash of money that you own and can use (without paying back). I regard it more as a housing credit card with a huge credit limit (think hundreds of thousands of dollars).
I think the housing/financial sector influences the whole economy, they’re not single standalone sections. The home improvement and construction companies are feeling it (tied to real estate obviously), but what else have people bought using HELOCs that they’ll no longer buy? Furniture? Vacations? Spa treatments? Cars? Maybe it’s not a huge influence, but I think a lot of things are tied into this somehow.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I am not really feeling it
I am in college and out for the summer but i never complain about gas prices because I know I would have to pay alot in fuel for having a job further away from home. I have many investments and I feel they are safe. Last quarter my mutual fund didn’t grow as much as before and that dissapointed me but I am still fine and feel it will continue to grow. I have some bonds I am considering moving into some stocks soon and this ressesion thing is not making me change my mind. For now I am going to continue to do things the same, invest, save, and earn money for college and that nice new motorcycle I have been saving for. I tell people a motorcycle will save me money on gas but I know that is not true, because when I get that motorcycle I am going to drive alot more because it is fun. I think we all will be fine and still think gas should be taxed up to 10$ a gallon, more like Europe so we all drive less.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
I agree with Ashton. Tax the hell out of gas so we Americans drive less. People will grumble, but it’s for the best.
I wouldn’t say I’m doing anything specifically to combat the US “recession,” if that’s what it is. It just worked out that I started taking my finances seriously and living frugally about a year ago, so I guess I inadvertently choose an especially good time to get on the good foot.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
I am fortunate to not be personally feeling it. But then, isn’t the purpose of my hard-earned savings to insulate me from financial bumps in the road of life?
May 27th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
I would agree with a few of the above posts that saving has become more difficult. I am still putting the same amount in the savings and retirement (required pension contribution, fully funded Roth, additional 5 percent into 529 plan, and $120/month into emergency fund).
Where I have seen the difference is in excess cashflow. I used to accumulate $200-400 every quarter that I used to pay down debt. For the last 6 months I haven’t had this excess and may have been running a small deficit.
In response, I have begun to track all expenses to try and determine if this is from rising food and fuel prices or increasing lifestyle (or some combination of the two). I don’t feel like I’m living more extravagantly, but as we all know the little things add up.
Ultimately, though, I feel secure in my employment, live below my means, and have enough of a savings cushion that I don’t worry day-to-day.
On a side (the sky is falling) note: We need to have a national moritorium on all news stories related to rising gas prices. We absolutely do not need daily updates of the national average. It’s high, we get it. Do some real reporting. Same goes for the “credit crunch”. As soon as it gets a catch phrase, like the above, or “pain at the pump”, it’s overplayed and cheapens the real issues.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
When Warren Buffet says that we’re in a recession (regardless of the dictionary defintion), it’s probably a good idea to listen. He’s not the final word, but he’s got a pretty damn good track record.
Personally, I’m there with Michelle Singletary. It’s going to suck, but I know I’ve got the smarts and good habits to survive it. I’ll probably hate myself in a few months/years for saying this (Buffet’s predicting an extended recession, not a quickie), but bring it on!
May 27th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
We’ve not really noticed much other than it now costs 50-60 to fill a tank instead of half that. But my husband bikes to work and I only drive a couple days out of the week, so we fill our cars maybe once a month (mine more like 5-7 weeks).
Food costs haven’t had significant change for us. We eat a lot of rice (bought a 50lb bag back when it was 19 bucks, not 37), pasta, etc… but that isn’t just because it is cheap, it is because we like rice and pasta. Chicken has increased a bit in price, but I still get it for 2.18 a lb (sometimes can find it for 1.98), which is good enough for me. Milk has gone up, but it always seems to be on sale somewhere, so a little paying attention means it also doesn’t affect us much.
We’re saving more now than ever, but we still have our phones, our cable package, buy books and movies whenever we want, and do little nights out on the town. I believe in taking care of the big things (decently cheap rent, cars paid off, no debt etc…) and letting the little stuff worry about itself. We’re lucky to have decent health plans, be young and strong, and have stable jobs.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Whatever one wants to call it, the US is the world’s largest debtor nation. That’s not good. The greenback is being consciously inflated through the roof. M3 is no longer reported, so you can’t gauge how much it’s been inflated. It doesn’t matter who comes into office next, no one will be able to easily solve this huge economic problem. Spending needs to be cut back (that includes those weapons manufacturers) and savings increased.
May 28th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Those of us caught in the Tech Wreck earlier in the decade learned to save. I was one of those. Fortunately, we paid off our house just before the bad times hit. Interestingly, our household income didn’t recover to 1999 levels until 2006. Now we’ve got the emergency fund built up again (currently at 7 months living expenses) and we’re working on building a home-repair fund. We have no debt at all and drive old cars (mine is over 20 years old now and still going strong). I’m growing an expanded veggie garden this year - the largest I’ve grown in several years. We make our meals at home and rarely eat out.
Tough times are here and they’re going to get worse before they get better. This is the way the cycle always works: People get prosperous and start spending more and more until they’re spending beyond their means. At some point that debt has to be serviced which leads to an economic contraction (the stage we’re currently in) which teaches people to save again. That’s the unfortunate reality: people seem to only learn after they’ve experienced hard times.
May 28th, 2008 at 6:22 am
I agree with a lot of what #66 and #68 say — age has its rewards. DH and I remember the layoffs, economic problems, and oil crises during the 70s. My family wasn’t specifically damaged by any of them, but I read the papers and watched the news, and my parents were frugal. DH and I have consciously made financial decisions to limit our exposure in those areas.
Therefore, we notice that gas prices are crazy and food prices are rising, but gas and food are relatively small percentages of our cash flow every month, so we can absorb the expenses without too many problems.
We’re finding that it’s the “optional” items that are becoming more expensive than we’re comfortable with, mostly because our savings and investment income is small to negative.
May 28th, 2008 at 8:16 am
In regards to the cheerleading for higher oil prices to reduce North American consumption:
Such a wish is dangerous given the transportation climate that we are in: alternative forms of transportation are sorely lacking in many cities. Also, due to the large size of this continent, there are greater distances to be travelled between communities, unlike Europe which generally has a strong transportation system that doesn’t entirely rely on automobiles and trucks, as well as a longer history of building up this infrastructure, plus a higher community density.
Obscenely high fuel prices may dissuade the average person to drive less, but it will also raise the cost of transporting goods substantially, so the savings from not driving only offset the increased prices you pay for your goods. This would include produce/food, even if it’s locally grown: farmers need fuel for their farm equipment, not just to transport it to market.
It’s time to look at the bigger picture.
May 28th, 2008 at 9:39 am
I agree that the recession is probably a good thing, at least I hope it is. I guess after the depression was when we started blazing the mass consumerism trail we’re on now, so maybe the recession could cause things to get even worse. Hey, I don’t have a crystal ball. I do know that there hasn’t been this much talk about growing your own food since WWII, though, and that’s saying something. I know that I for one am sick of leading a stuff driven life. I seem to hear those sentiments all over, so maybe the tide is turning.
May 28th, 2008 at 11:40 am
We have become a DISPOSABLE society. If the TV, Toaster, or DVD breaks we replace it instead of trying to get it fixed.
We want instant GRATIFICATION with the newest and brightest electronic gadgets be it Cell Phones, HDTV, BlueRay, etc.
Solar Power?
If all 50 states approved Net Metering we could have Solar Panels on our roofs they make them like shingles now. How does net metering work? When the Sun is out your electric meter runs in reverse if you are generating more Solar Energy than you are using and at night you pull back from the electric company. What kind of savings would this have on fuel demand and consumer electric bills?
Passive Solar Design
Does anyone remember sitting under the shade tree during those hot summer days?
Could we not use those same shade trees to help cool our homes in the summer? Now what if we use Plum, Fig, and Apple trees to do this then we would not only be cooling our homes in the summer we could be eating fresh plums in mid June, fresh figs in August, and fresh apples in October.
Bring back the Victory Gardens of WWII
1 or 2 sections of land 3’X6’ could grow a tremendous amount of produce and would only take up 15 min a day after you planted it. You say you don’t have a yard use some 5 gallon buckets. How about landscaping how much of it is the same old evergreen stuff you buy at the big box stores? What about blueberry bushes, blackberry bushes, or rosemary?
One Stop Shopping
My dad was in the military and I can remember my mom doing the grocery shopping twice a month payday. She made a list and had the menu for the 2 weeks if we were having hamburger 1 night, meatloaf 1 night, and hamburger helper 1 night then she bought X amount of hamburger. She did not have the luxury of the 24 hour stores to pick up things she had forgotten or the money to make 2 or 3 trips to the store a day to buy things.
What would Happen?
I know this is about getting out of debt but what would happen to gas prices if all Americans went out today and bought a scooter that got 65mpg or better and that’s all we drove. You would not have to worry about the big SUV running you over. Right now I have a 10 gallon tank in my car that I have to fill up every 12 to 14 days. With a 1 gallon tank on the scooter filling up every 3 to 4 days I would be cutting gas consumption in half.
May 28th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Nope, not affecting us…. but we’ve been cutting back consumption for the last year or two, trying to get out of debt and prepare for having a family. We’re expecting our first child in September, and I’m looking into lots of frugal ways to deal with baby needs - but I think I’d be doing that anyway.
Of course, we’re very young, and have not yet had to deal with any economic downturns personally. So it might get a lot worse than we can handle.
May 28th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I’m not feeling the effects of a recession at all, but I *am* feeling like I’m getting murdered by higher prices (inflation). Neither me or my wife live close to work, and gas prices are really hitting hard. The cost of groceries is really hurting, as well.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Fortunately, I paid off all my debts before this stagflation (because that’s what it is). The company that I had been working for the last 4 years had been bleeding customers, and started using the “lay off” word. I saw the writing and found a new job while I had the chance. I’m not certain that the new job will be any more stable, but I am getting paid more, so I’m saving more. So no matter what, I will be better off than I was. I feel more secure because I jumped off with a plan before I was forced off walking the plank. Food and fuel are noticably higher, but I’m less worried about it than I would have been a year ago.
May 29th, 2008 at 3:58 am
I agree we are in stagflation, which is actually worse than a recession. Look at Shadow Statistics to get a real idea of the data and inflation.
We are frugal and savers, but it is a dangerous time for savers ( and everyone) because of the high inflation ( despite the hype that the powers that be are for a strong dollar).
I think one needs to think out of the box for the challenges today and those coming and just saving in the ever shrinking dollar is not enough.
May 29th, 2008 at 9:48 am
“If we’re in a recession, shouldn’t we at least have ONE quarter of negative GDP? Just one?”
The numbers you are relaying on are estimates, and they will be adjusted when the real numbers come in. Don’t worry, they will be adjusted down.
Also, the majority of numbers you see in mainstream news (NBC, FOX, CNN, etc.) are useless. Take inflation that is supposed to be at 3.9%. Do any of you really think your gas/food/utility bills only went up 3.9%? It’s because they use a faulty formula to calculate it. Don’t be fooled by the numbers.
May 29th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
“We’re consuming high-tech gadgets like high-def television and high-speed internet.”
…
I’m paying “naked DSL” (no phone line required) at $19.95 per month, shared with another roomie.
Back in the day, AOL was $25 a month and about 10x as slow.
Not only have internet speed jumped dramatically, we now have Youtube, Facebook, Limewire, iPods, lifelike graphics on $300 consoles. We might be spending about the same amount with less wages, but there’s so much more we can do. Someday, the whole world will notice.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
[about youngish people]: “We don’t understand the skills required to weather the storm. (Yes, I know the economy struggled earlier in the decade, but not like this.)”
I’m not at all sure that’s true, certainly not for PF bloggers and the folks who read them. You already have the skills required to weather the storm, and if and when you need to use them, you will. Most of the young people I know, even the ones who are struggling through graduate school, are getting by and will get by. They’ve realized that they need to pay off debt and they’re doing it; they know they need to live within their means, and they’re figuring out how and succeeding at it.
People adapt. They change their habits to fit changing circumstances, and before long the new “normal” begins to feel OK.
They may lose their shirts but sooner or later they make, beg, buy or steal a new shirt.
Nor am I convinced that we’re necessarily headed to He** on a skateboard. Just because things change doesn’t mean they’re changing for the worse. For example, if people drove fewer miles and drove more fuel-efficient vehicles, fact of the matter is that would be good for the quality of life in our cities, it would drive a new and possibly more interesting (possibly even healthier) kind of economy — think of stores located near you instead of halfway across the sprawling city, think of fewer big boxes and more stores targeted to the needs of people where you live — and it would give us cleaner air and less noise.
I’ve lived through three major recessions and the dot-com bust. Whatever’s lumbering toward Bethlehem (if anything is), I feel pretty confident that your generation will rise to the challenge. And rise handsomely.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
In Australia - we are experiencing tough times, well my family is and a lot of people around us. Mortgage interest rates are going up on an ongoing basis - they currently are around the 9%pa for most mortgages. People who bought in the last 5 yrs in our area the average mortgage would be over the $200k AUS at the bare min the not so lucky have mortgages in the $300k + region. Rentals have increased and bidding wars have resulted - roughly a 3 bedroom house (about 1hr from brisbane)will set you back a min $280 to $380 per week. (thats outer suburbs I wouldn’t dare estimate the prices for inner city suburbs!)disel in our area has hit $1.72 per litre (or roughly converted to $6.50AUS /gallon)unleaded is just as bad! Groceries are shocking!
We have adjusted our travelling not an easy thing when hubby works on the other side of the city (1hr away) our public transport system is so not good enough to even bother about for workers working in the area my hubby works.
I found it interesting that some posts refered that they think it a good option to tax the fuel to 10%/gallon- that would not be an advantagous option - if that was done would it not be more expensive for the products and services??? transportation costs, production costs (you need fuel to produce crops and animals)would put further pressure on the cost of goods and services. Food, medical supplies, furniture,mail etc all need to be transported which means fuel.
I guess the answer is to be smart and make sure that your family will weather the storm, and not worry about the people who aren’t waking up to the fact that you need to pay back money borrowed, you can’t have everything now and you need to save for your retirement.
May 30th, 2008 at 2:45 am
I have always lived within my means and tried to save. I’ve been out of work for 10 months and still surviving. For too many people, it has been instant gratification as far as having all of the toys out there. And look at kids today. Fancy cars, cell phones, personal computers, there’s no end. These kids are going to be in for a real shock when their parents can no longer afford to keep up their lifestyle. What has caused all of this? The price of oil, the decline of the dollar and the constant speculation on Wall Street. Investors drove up the housing market and then let it drop. Commodity investors are now driving up the price of oil and crops. Who knows where it will end.
Rosemary
http://her-home-blog.com
June 10th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Great post and one to bookmark for future reference. Rather than give into the fear, you should make plans incase the worst happens. For example, losing one’s job is a much higher probability in this environemnt. Here is my list of things to do in order to be prepared for a lay off: http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/03/tips-on-preparing-for-potential-job.html
Thanks, Andy.