“What will it take to make Americans save more?” wonders Michelle Singletary in her latest column at The Washington Post. Singletary points to a recent survey that reveals Americans know they’re not saving but they just don’t care enough to change. (I recommend reading Singletary’s article via the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, where there are fewer ads and no pagination problems.)
What’s the root of the problem?
- Our homes are more expensive.
- We’re consuming high-tech gadgets like high-def television and high-speed internet.
- The costs of core components of our lifestyle — like health care and education — are increasing faster than inflation.
- We’re more willing to take on debt.
The floundering economy isn’t helping. “Slightly more than half of middle-class respondents said they’ve had to reduce their spending in the past year,” Singletary writes, “and they expect to have to continue these cutbacks in the year ahead.”
Why? Because nearly everyone (including the people I talk to in real-life) believes that we are entering — or have already entered — a recession. Americans my age (and younger) have never lived through a prolonged economic downturn. We don’t know what it’s like. We don’t understand the skills required to weather the storm. (Yes, I know the economy struggled earlier in the decade, but not like this.)
While the government may be slow to acknowledge the recession, the average person is already feeling it. Though the politicians may be turning a blind eye during this election year, Warren Buffett knows:
Asked by Germany’s “Der Spiegel” weekly whether he thinks the U.S. could still avoid a recession, he said that as far as the average person is concerned, it’s already here. “I believe that we are already in a recession,” Buffett was quoted by “Spiegel” as saying. “Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. … But people are already feeling the effects of a recession.”
Among the friends I talk to, this is certainly true. It’s even true at the box factory. Though I no longer work there, I keep in touch. Business has been slow. Very slow — not just for us, but all over the city. We’ve always said that boxes are a sort of “leading economic indicator”. When orders are down, I worry about what this means for the economy as a whole.
I also fear that the lack of savings among average Americans could cause real problems if the recession is lengthy or severe. If we, as a country, have no savings and are deep in debt, how are we going to manage?
Personally, I’m not feeling the pinch yet. Because I’m now working from home, gas prices aren’t affecting me. Food prices are shocking, but we’ve been eating out less, and soon our garden will be providing fresh produce. Meanwhile, I’ve begun to protect myself with an emergency fund and retirement savings. The future doesn’t frighten me as much as it might have in the past.
What about you? Are you feeling the effects of a recession? What changes have you made to cope with the current economy? Are you saving more now than you were five years ago? Or are you one of those who hasn’t found the will to change? Do you worry that you’ll have to dip into your emergency fund or retirement savings to make ends meet? If you’re not in the United States, what’s life like in your country? I’m curious how others are coping, and whether or not it makes a difference how much money you’ve saved.
In her article, Michelle Singletary writes, “I am not — like many people — bemoaning the economic downturn. I think that in one respect it’s a good thing. It’s what this consumer-driven, debt-laden country needed.” Sounds like a little bit of tough love. But you know what? She may be right.
Thanks to Tim and Kristina for forwarding these articles.
SEARCH FOR RECENT ARTICLES




Ron @ 34. You said:
Only two sectors are really dragging things down: housing and the financial sector. Removing these two sectors from the calculations shows that business profits gained 15.9 percent in 2007-4 and gained around 12.0 percent during 2008-1. The strength of ‘core’ profits and of the whole US economy in the throes of the worst credit crisis since the 1930s is impressive.
Try this with your MBA:
“Take away Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips and profits at U.S. companies are the worst in at least a decade.
Without the $70 billion that oil producers earned in the last two quarters, profits at companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 26 percent and 30.2 percent, the biggest decreases for any quarter since Bloomberg started compiling data in 1998.
Energy companies made up almost half the income growth reported by S&P 500 companies in the first three months of 2008 as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, the data show.”
loading....
I agree with Singletary in that the recession is not all bad and that recessions are vital to the growth of our economy, a necessary correction. I also recognize how elitist this must sound to an average person who recently lost his or her job. However, hopefully the problems in housing recently will convince people not to use their homes like piggy banks and the spike in gas prices will convince people to finally seek more fuel-efficient options.
loading....
@ Mr. Obvious:
That’s fantastic! The oil ETF (USO) I bought in August at $54.88 is up to $104 and change! Woohoo!
loading....
I’m slightly concerned that I’m missing something. I haven’t particularly noticed increasing prices in the shops. My mortgage payment is constant, and I don’t drive. Hopefully I’m right, and not deluding myself
.
loading....
I’ve been making a few minor changes…
First, I’m driving less by combining trips and using public transport more often. Where I live, a monthly bus pass is $45, so this is a no brainier – after about four days in the month it pays for itself in gas savings. And plus I love being able to read on my way to work now.
I’m using my cell phone a bit less and using Skype more, which has shaved a bit off my monthly bill.
And I’m being a bit more careful when I’m shopping, which I should have done awhile back. Sometimes I can be an impulse spender, and that’s not good.
loading....
I told closer friends US economy was heading for disaster a few years ago based on US deficit and global political situation. They said I was wrong, but now the same friend has lost his job, I’m not happy about it, I can be next. Things will be clear once this election ends. If I were you, I will start changing my dollars to euros and hold on to your property, if you rent and have money, I think it is better to buy some property now. Later will be too late. My prediction is dollar will go down even more and prices of everything will go really really high. I told ya.
loading....
To some extent I’ve felt the current economic adjustments, and to some extent I haven’t. I have a high level of job security, a decent middle-class salary, and save 25-30% of my yearly income, so I don’t feel like the framework of my social existence is in any immediate jeopardy. On the other hand, I work for a state with significant economic challenges, and I haven’t had a real raise–or even a real cost-of-living increase–in a few years. In effect, despite my general sense of security, I do wonder how things may be 5, 10, or more years down the road.
With my retirement savings, emergency fund, frugality, and inner resourcefulness, I sense that I can deal with minor and major upheavals reasonably well. However, I fear that the economic foundation of my country (the U.S.) is crumbling (actually, has been crumbling for decades), and current economic realities (not just the economic downturn as such, but also the country’s debt structure, excessive spending, etc.) do not bode well for the country’s future, economic or otherwise.
Though higher energy prices and food costs have me on guard, I’m way more concerned about this country’s overall development as a debt-laden service (as opposed to manufacturing) economy, including the fact that many or most of the people in this country also take on too much debt and spend way too much of their own (and creditors’) money on unneeded junk. When I think of this big picture, it just doesn’t look promising.
But in the meantime, I’m just trying to spend as little as possible, save as much as possible, and try to enjoy the journey, whatever it may be….
loading....
In order to save money a person needs to spend less than they earn.
That model should start from our government as an example.
As the end of the cash usually arrives before the end of the month everyone should remove cash from their account as they get paid and get it invested.
You won’t miss it.
Much.
loading....
I agree with Plonkee I haven’t noticed any change in my grocery prices here in Canada. I don’t drive but I am aware of increasing fuel prices (although I’m from the UK so I still think they are pretty cheap here and in the states- sorry!).
I try to be sensible with my spending and saving habits and so far the only direct change for me is the fuel surcharge on my holiday flights this year.
I do wonder if the increases seen by American commenters is almost a correction of sorts? I would consider the prices of many goods in the US ridiculously cheap compared with European and even Canadian prices.
loading....
I haven’t noticed anything beyond the rising gas and food prices, but everybody is experiencing that. I experienced my own personal “economic downturn” during 2001 – freshly graduated with a comp sci degree, and competing with other people from the dot com bust. For two years, I did data entry, pinched pennies, and bemoaned my unfortunate timing. I finally got a real job related to the comp sci field in 2003…in a financial company that originated subprime mortgage loans (yes, now bankrupt).
I didn’t mean to follow bubbles – in fact, thanks to my two years of hardship, it has taught me to save up $$ so that when I got laid off last year, I was in a much better position than back in 2001 (plus this bubble isn’t related to my field).
Previous posters bring up a good point – there’s something funky happening with the economy right now, so if everybody has the saving mindset, doesn’t that imply slowdown to economy which then affects companies/jobs?
One more thing to note: HELOCs allowed people to borrow more $. Some people called it using their house as an ATM. I don’t think “ATM” is used accurately as it implies a stash of money that you own and can use (without paying back). I regard it more as a housing credit card with a huge credit limit (think hundreds of thousands of dollars).
I think the housing/financial sector influences the whole economy, they’re not single standalone sections. The home improvement and construction companies are feeling it (tied to real estate obviously), but what else have people bought using HELOCs that they’ll no longer buy? Furniture? Vacations? Spa treatments? Cars? Maybe it’s not a huge influence, but I think a lot of things are tied into this somehow.
loading....
I am not really feeling it
I am in college and out for the summer but i never complain about gas prices because I know I would have to pay alot in fuel for having a job further away from home. I have many investments and I feel they are safe. Last quarter my mutual fund didn’t grow as much as before and that dissapointed me but I am still fine and feel it will continue to grow. I have some bonds I am considering moving into some stocks soon and this ressesion thing is not making me change my mind. For now I am going to continue to do things the same, invest, save, and earn money for college and that nice new motorcycle I have been saving for. I tell people a motorcycle will save me money on gas but I know that is not true, because when I get that motorcycle I am going to drive alot more because it is fun. I think we all will be fine and still think gas should be taxed up to 10$ a gallon, more like Europe so we all drive less.
loading....
I agree with Ashton. Tax the hell out of gas so we Americans drive less. People will grumble, but it’s for the best.
I wouldn’t say I’m doing anything specifically to combat the US “recession,” if that’s what it is. It just worked out that I started taking my finances seriously and living frugally about a year ago, so I guess I inadvertently choose an especially good time to get on the good foot.
loading....
I am fortunate to not be personally feeling it. But then, isn’t the purpose of my hard-earned savings to insulate me from financial bumps in the road of life?
loading....
I would agree with a few of the above posts that saving has become more difficult. I am still putting the same amount in the savings and retirement (required pension contribution, fully funded Roth, additional 5 percent into 529 plan, and $120/month into emergency fund).
Where I have seen the difference is in excess cashflow. I used to accumulate $200-400 every quarter that I used to pay down debt. For the last 6 months I haven’t had this excess and may have been running a small deficit.
In response, I have begun to track all expenses to try and determine if this is from rising food and fuel prices or increasing lifestyle (or some combination of the two). I don’t feel like I’m living more extravagantly, but as we all know the little things add up.
Ultimately, though, I feel secure in my employment, live below my means, and have enough of a savings cushion that I don’t worry day-to-day.
On a side (the sky is falling) note: We need to have a national moritorium on all news stories related to rising gas prices. We absolutely do not need daily updates of the national average. It’s high, we get it. Do some real reporting. Same goes for the “credit crunch”. As soon as it gets a catch phrase, like the above, or “pain at the pump”, it’s overplayed and cheapens the real issues.
loading....
When Warren Buffet says that we’re in a recession (regardless of the dictionary defintion), it’s probably a good idea to listen. He’s not the final word, but he’s got a pretty damn good track record.
Personally, I’m there with Michelle Singletary. It’s going to suck, but I know I’ve got the smarts and good habits to survive it. I’ll probably hate myself in a few months/years for saying this (Buffet’s predicting an extended recession, not a quickie), but bring it on!
loading....
We’ve not really noticed much other than it now costs 50-60 to fill a tank instead of half that. But my husband bikes to work and I only drive a couple days out of the week, so we fill our cars maybe once a month (mine more like 5-7 weeks).
Food costs haven’t had significant change for us. We eat a lot of rice (bought a 50lb bag back when it was 19 bucks, not 37), pasta, etc… but that isn’t just because it is cheap, it is because we like rice and pasta. Chicken has increased a bit in price, but I still get it for 2.18 a lb (sometimes can find it for 1.98), which is good enough for me. Milk has gone up, but it always seems to be on sale somewhere, so a little paying attention means it also doesn’t affect us much.
We’re saving more now than ever, but we still have our phones, our cable package, buy books and movies whenever we want, and do little nights out on the town. I believe in taking care of the big things (decently cheap rent, cars paid off, no debt etc…) and letting the little stuff worry about itself. We’re lucky to have decent health plans, be young and strong, and have stable jobs.
loading....
Whatever one wants to call it, the US is the world’s largest debtor nation. That’s not good. The greenback is being consciously inflated through the roof. M3 is no longer reported, so you can’t gauge how much it’s been inflated. It doesn’t matter who comes into office next, no one will be able to easily solve this huge economic problem. Spending needs to be cut back (that includes those weapons manufacturers) and savings increased.
loading....
Those of us caught in the Tech Wreck earlier in the decade learned to save. I was one of those. Fortunately, we paid off our house just before the bad times hit. Interestingly, our household income didn’t recover to 1999 levels until 2006. Now we’ve got the emergency fund built up again (currently at 7 months living expenses) and we’re working on building a home-repair fund. We have no debt at all and drive old cars (mine is over 20 years old now and still going strong). I’m growing an expanded veggie garden this year – the largest I’ve grown in several years. We make our meals at home and rarely eat out.
Tough times are here and they’re going to get worse before they get better. This is the way the cycle always works: People get prosperous and start spending more and more until they’re spending beyond their means. At some point that debt has to be serviced which leads to an economic contraction (the stage we’re currently in) which teaches people to save again. That’s the unfortunate reality: people seem to only learn after they’ve experienced hard times.
loading....
I agree with a lot of what #66 and #68 say — age has its rewards. DH and I remember the layoffs, economic problems, and oil crises during the 70s. My family wasn’t specifically damaged by any of them, but I read the papers and watched the news, and my parents were frugal. DH and I have consciously made financial decisions to limit our exposure in those areas.
Therefore, we notice that gas prices are crazy and food prices are rising, but gas and food are relatively small percentages of our cash flow every month, so we can absorb the expenses without too many problems.
We’re finding that it’s the “optional” items that are becoming more expensive than we’re comfortable with, mostly because our savings and investment income is small to negative.
loading....
In regards to the cheerleading for higher oil prices to reduce North American consumption:
Such a wish is dangerous given the transportation climate that we are in: alternative forms of transportation are sorely lacking in many cities. Also, due to the large size of this continent, there are greater distances to be travelled between communities, unlike Europe which generally has a strong transportation system that doesn’t entirely rely on automobiles and trucks, as well as a longer history of building up this infrastructure, plus a higher community density.
Obscenely high fuel prices may dissuade the average person to drive less, but it will also raise the cost of transporting goods substantially, so the savings from not driving only offset the increased prices you pay for your goods. This would include produce/food, even if it’s locally grown: farmers need fuel for their farm equipment, not just to transport it to market.
It’s time to look at the bigger picture.
loading....
I agree that the recession is probably a good thing, at least I hope it is. I guess after the depression was when we started blazing the mass consumerism trail we’re on now, so maybe the recession could cause things to get even worse. Hey, I don’t have a crystal ball. I do know that there hasn’t been this much talk about growing your own food since WWII, though, and that’s saying something. I know that I for one am sick of leading a stuff driven life. I seem to hear those sentiments all over, so maybe the tide is turning.
loading....
We have become a DISPOSABLE society. If the TV, Toaster, or DVD breaks we replace it instead of trying to get it fixed.
We want instant GRATIFICATION with the newest and brightest electronic gadgets be it Cell Phones, HDTV, BlueRay, etc.
Solar Power?
If all 50 states approved Net Metering we could have Solar Panels on our roofs they make them like shingles now. How does net metering work? When the Sun is out your electric meter runs in reverse if you are generating more Solar Energy than you are using and at night you pull back from the electric company. What kind of savings would this have on fuel demand and consumer electric bills?
Passive Solar Design
Does anyone remember sitting under the shade tree during those hot summer days?
Could we not use those same shade trees to help cool our homes in the summer? Now what if we use Plum, Fig, and Apple trees to do this then we would not only be cooling our homes in the summer we could be eating fresh plums in mid June, fresh figs in August, and fresh apples in October.
Bring back the Victory Gardens of WWII
1 or 2 sections of land 3’X6’ could grow a tremendous amount of produce and would only take up 15 min a day after you planted it. You say you don’t have a yard use some 5 gallon buckets. How about landscaping how much of it is the same old evergreen stuff you buy at the big box stores? What about blueberry bushes, blackberry bushes, or rosemary?
One Stop Shopping
My dad was in the military and I can remember my mom doing the grocery shopping twice a month payday. She made a list and had the menu for the 2 weeks if we were having hamburger 1 night, meatloaf 1 night, and hamburger helper 1 night then she bought X amount of hamburger. She did not have the luxury of the 24 hour stores to pick up things she had forgotten or the money to make 2 or 3 trips to the store a day to buy things.
What would Happen?
I know this is about getting out of debt but what would happen to gas prices if all Americans went out today and bought a scooter that got 65mpg or better and that’s all we drove. You would not have to worry about the big SUV running you over. Right now I have a 10 gallon tank in my car that I have to fill up every 12 to 14 days. With a 1 gallon tank on the scooter filling up every 3 to 4 days I would be cutting gas consumption in half.
loading....
Nope, not affecting us…. but we’ve been cutting back consumption for the last year or two, trying to get out of debt and prepare for having a family. We’re expecting our first child in September, and I’m looking into lots of frugal ways to deal with baby needs – but I think I’d be doing that anyway.
Of course, we’re very young, and have not yet had to deal with any economic downturns personally. So it might get a lot worse than we can handle.
loading....
I’m not feeling the effects of a recession at all, but I *am* feeling like I’m getting murdered by higher prices (inflation). Neither me or my wife live close to work, and gas prices are really hitting hard. The cost of groceries is really hurting, as well.
loading....
Fortunately, I paid off all my debts before this stagflation (because that’s what it is). The company that I had been working for the last 4 years had been bleeding customers, and started using the “lay off” word. I saw the writing and found a new job while I had the chance. I’m not certain that the new job will be any more stable, but I am getting paid more, so I’m saving more. So no matter what, I will be better off than I was. I feel more secure because I jumped off with a plan before I was forced off walking the plank. Food and fuel are noticably higher, but I’m less worried about it than I would have been a year ago.
loading....
I agree we are in stagflation, which is actually worse than a recession. Look at Shadow Statistics to get a real idea of the data and inflation.
We are frugal and savers, but it is a dangerous time for savers ( and everyone) because of the high inflation ( despite the hype that the powers that be are for a strong dollar).
I think one needs to think out of the box for the challenges today and those coming and just saving in the ever shrinking dollar is not enough.
loading....
“If we’re in a recession, shouldn’t we at least have ONE quarter of negative GDP? Just one?”
The numbers you are relaying on are estimates, and they will be adjusted when the real numbers come in. Don’t worry, they will be adjusted down.
Also, the majority of numbers you see in mainstream news (NBC, FOX, CNN, etc.) are useless. Take inflation that is supposed to be at 3.9%. Do any of you really think your gas/food/utility bills only went up 3.9%? It’s because they use a faulty formula to calculate it. Don’t be fooled by the numbers.
loading....
“We’re consuming high-tech gadgets like high-def television and high-speed internet.”
…
I’m paying “naked DSL” (no phone line required) at $19.95 per month, shared with another roomie.
Back in the day, AOL was $25 a month and about 10x as slow.
Not only have internet speed jumped dramatically, we now have Youtube, Facebook, Limewire, iPods, lifelike graphics on $300 consoles. We might be spending about the same amount with less wages, but there’s so much more we can do. Someday, the whole world will notice.
loading....
[about youngish people]: “We don’t understand the skills required to weather the storm. (Yes, I know the economy struggled earlier in the decade, but not like this.)”
I’m not at all sure that’s true, certainly not for PF bloggers and the folks who read them. You already have the skills required to weather the storm, and if and when you need to use them, you will. Most of the young people I know, even the ones who are struggling through graduate school, are getting by and will get by. They’ve realized that they need to pay off debt and they’re doing it; they know they need to live within their means, and they’re figuring out how and succeeding at it.
People adapt. They change their habits to fit changing circumstances, and before long the new “normal” begins to feel OK.
They may lose their shirts but sooner or later they make, beg, buy or steal a new shirt.
Nor am I convinced that we’re necessarily headed to He** on a skateboard. Just because things change doesn’t mean they’re changing for the worse. For example, if people drove fewer miles and drove more fuel-efficient vehicles, fact of the matter is that would be good for the quality of life in our cities, it would drive a new and possibly more interesting (possibly even healthier) kind of economy — think of stores located near you instead of halfway across the sprawling city, think of fewer big boxes and more stores targeted to the needs of people where you live — and it would give us cleaner air and less noise.
I’ve lived through three major recessions and the dot-com bust. Whatever’s lumbering toward Bethlehem (if anything is), I feel pretty confident that your generation will rise to the challenge. And rise handsomely.
loading....
In Australia – we are experiencing tough times, well my family is and a lot of people around us. Mortgage interest rates are going up on an ongoing basis – they currently are around the 9%pa for most mortgages. People who bought in the last 5 yrs in our area the average mortgage would be over the $200k AUS at the bare min the not so lucky have mortgages in the $300k + region. Rentals have increased and bidding wars have resulted – roughly a 3 bedroom house (about 1hr from brisbane)will set you back a min $280 to $380 per week. (thats outer suburbs I wouldn’t dare estimate the prices for inner city suburbs!)disel in our area has hit $1.72 per litre (or roughly converted to $6.50AUS /gallon)unleaded is just as bad! Groceries are shocking!
We have adjusted our travelling not an easy thing when hubby works on the other side of the city (1hr away) our public transport system is so not good enough to even bother about for workers working in the area my hubby works.
I found it interesting that some posts refered that they think it a good option to tax the fuel to 10%/gallon- that would not be an advantagous option – if that was done would it not be more expensive for the products and services??? transportation costs, production costs (you need fuel to produce crops and animals)would put further pressure on the cost of goods and services. Food, medical supplies, furniture,mail etc all need to be transported which means fuel.
I guess the answer is to be smart and make sure that your family will weather the storm, and not worry about the people who aren’t waking up to the fact that you need to pay back money borrowed, you can’t have everything now and you need to save for your retirement.
loading....
I have always lived within my means and tried to save. I’ve been out of work for 10 months and still surviving. For too many people, it has been instant gratification as far as having all of the toys out there. And look at kids today. Fancy cars, cell phones, personal computers, there’s no end. These kids are going to be in for a real shock when their parents can no longer afford to keep up their lifestyle. What has caused all of this? The price of oil, the decline of the dollar and the constant speculation on Wall Street. Investors drove up the housing market and then let it drop. Commodity investors are now driving up the price of oil and crops. Who knows where it will end.
Rosemary
http://her-home-blog.com
loading....
Great post and one to bookmark for future reference. Rather than give into the fear, you should make plans incase the worst happens. For example, losing one’s job is a much higher probability in this environemnt. Here is my list of things to do in order to be prepared for a lay off: http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/03/tips-on-preparing-for-potential-job.html
Thanks, Andy.
loading....