Safe Money in Tough Times: Questions and Answers with Jonathan Pond
Published on - March 12th, 2009 (by J.D. Roth)
My wife is a public broadcasting fanatic. I recognize its value, but mostly I just tolerate it. (I often joke that NPR is “noise pollution radio” — I can’t think when it’s on.) Usually the television pledge breaks annoy me, but one night last week, the local station employed a clever tactic. They had a financial expert answer viewer questions between pleas for more money.
Jonathan Pond bills himself as “America’s financial planner”. He runs a financial planning firm in Boston, but last Tuesday he was here in Portland, Oregon, fielding questions from the folks who called in to pledge money to public broadcasting. (Pond was also giving away copies of his new book, Safe Money in Tough Times.)
The questions Pond answered were a lot like the questions I’ve been receiving here at Get Rich Slowly. I don’t have time to answer most of the questions readers submit, and some are beyond my ken. (Remember: I’m just an average guy.) When I realized that a financial expert was going to tackle topics of interest to my readers, I grabbed a pad of paper to take notes. I’ve reproduced some of the most interesting responses below.
Does diversification still work? It seems like the rules have changed over the past year.
The biggest risk in investing is taking no risk at all. The diversification rules have not been thrown out the window. The actual problem is that people were not diversified before the crash. Many folks had put all (or most) of their money into stocks. The solution isn’t to now just over-load in the other direction. Diversification and asset allocation are about finding balance.
This seems like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to invest in stocks, but my friends think I’m crazy for wanting to do so. They think I should stay away from them. What do you think?
If you’re any sort of contrarian, now’s a great time to get in, a little at a time. Use dollar-cost averaging. Think about 10 years from now. Do you think the market will be lower or higher? Unless you need the money soon, don’t think about where the market will be next year, but where it will be in a decade.
It seems like there’s no safe place for my money now. Is there any safe place to still get a decent return?
There are four relatively safe places to put your money right now and still get an okay return:
- U.S. government money market funds
- Certificates of deposit
- Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)
- Municipal bonds
In fact, Pond believes that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick up high-quality municipal bonds. (I’ve seen similar sentiments in big money magazines lately, too.)
How much should I set aside for emergencies?
In this difficult market, if you’re a retiree, you should have two years worth of money set aside. If you’re young and working, you can get by with less.
I was 100% in stocks, and have lost a lot of money. I still haven’t diversified (am still 100% in stocks). I’ll retire in 5-7 years, and will need the money then. Should I stay in stocks (to maximize possible returns) or should I diversify?
Diversify. Five to seven years is too short a time to be wholly invested in the stock market. If your time horizon were longer, you might be able to do that, but the sooner you need the money, the more important diversification is.
My employer is going to suspend the company match to our 401(k) plan. Should I continue contributing to the 401(k), or should I contribute elsewhere?
Keep contributing to the 401(k) unless you anticipate tough times. Dollar-cost average. Dollar-cost averaging is a good strategy, and now especially is a great time to do it. They key to creating what you need for retirement is to contribute regularly, and to increase contributions when you can. Also, invest in yourself. Get more training. Use your brains. Make yourself more valuable to your company. [J.D.'s note: Pond's advice is good, but I think he missed the point of the question. I think the person meant, "Should I switch from a 401(k) to a Roth IRA?"]
We’re nearing retirement, but we’re not well-prepared. It was a challenge before the recession, but it’s even worse now. What should we do?
It will probably cost you less to retire than you think. Don’t listen to the talking heads who say that it will cost you 80%, 90%, 100% of your income. You can do it on 60% of pre-retirement income. If you’re really pinched, downsize your house. You might have to relocate to a less expensive region of the country. Also consider delaying retirement, or retire gradually. Delaying retirement by five years can make a huge difference.
My 401(k) is disappearing. What do I need to look for when investing in mutual funds?
Many people unwittingly put all of their money into stock mutual funds. If you lost more than 40% last year, you probably don’t have enough diversification. Don’t give up on your 401(k), but do make sure that your investments are diversified.
Interest rates on CDs and returns on mutual funds are way down. A friend told me about an investment guaranteed to return 14%. Do you think this is legit?
People are attracted to easy money. They want to get rich quick. But there aren’t any legitimate investments that guarantee 10% or 15% a year. If something looks too good to be true, it probably is. One way to check is to show it to some friends that you trust and see what they have to say.
Should I cash out my IRA to pay for a child’s college education?
It’s never a good idea to cash out an IRA for college. It’s never a good idea to stop contributing to them, either. There are other sources of college financing: loans and other financial aid. Save what you can, but don’t mortgage your own future for your child’s college education. [J.D.'s note: Trent just wrote about this last week.]
With the state of the economy, is it better to pay down credit card debt or to build savings?
Right now, it’s probably best to slow down debt repayment to build savings. In this economy, slowing down on credit cards may actually make sense in order increase the amount of emergency savings that you have set aside.
I’m falling behind on my debt. I’m unemployed. I’m having trouble keeping up with my credit card bills. What should I do?
It’s important to be pro-active. If you anticipate falling behind, contact your creditors before they contact you. They can’t work miracles, but many will have programs to help. Go to a legitimate credit counseling organization, not the sort you see on informercials. Use bankruptcy as a last resort, but don’t go to a bankruptcy attorney (because they’re going to think you should choose bankruptcy). Get an objective opinion.
Conclusion
Most of the advice coming out of reputable financial planners nowadays is very similar: Don’t panic, diversify, know your investment time horizon. They emphasize the fundamentals: spend less than you earn, have an emergency fund, etc. None of this is revolutionary, of course, but that’s because there are no magic bullets. I’m surprised at how many people complain about this advice. They think it’s facile because it’s basic; they want something inventive or new. But you know what? The basics are the basics because they work. Most of the time, when you stray from the proven path, you put yourself at risk for financial disaster.
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@ ryan:
Our grandparents were very wise… it seems like it’s our baby-boomer parents who sent us in the wrong direction; I do remember my mother saying, “This house is just your ‘starter house’ ” and sure enough, after our 3rd was born, my mother asked, “When are you going to get into a house where the kids can have a little extra room?…this small house affects their quality of life” and “You don’t really LIKE this small house, do you?” And so we have ‘upgraded’ to a much larger house and also have a ‘lien on the house’ of $238,000!! I really do miss my little brick rancher w/the $75,000 mortgage. I’ve talked to my older sister (who always talks about buying a bigger house) and have advised her of all the extra stress that accompanies the ‘upgrade’.
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“From my perspective debt you take on is a moral obligation.”
Does a creditor feel any “moral obligation” to the borrower? A loan is usually a business transaction. You have no “moral obligation” to ensure your creditors make money on that transaction.
Part of the cost you pay for any loan is to insure the lender against the risk that you will default. They should have priced that risk into their loan and probably did. If bankruptcy makes sense for you, then go for it without any feelings of guilt toward your creditors.
Of course, a personal loan from family or friends is a different issue. They didn’t loan you the money just to make a buck and you shouldn’t treat it as if they did.
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Holly,
I love your story. It’s funny how many kids a generation or two ago never thought much about their “quality of life” living in what would be considered tiny quarters.
Although I don’t live anywhere near there, and work in a field far removed from finance, I’m fascinated by New York City and what my life might have been like if I’d gone into investment banking or another finance field (tough right now, to be sure). And in my head I’ll do calculations about what it would take to have a comfortable life in Manhattan (and by my anti-debt/high savings rate standards, it’s prohibitively astronomical). But I’ll often think of families who are excessively wealthy, with net worths in the neighborhood of $10 million and they’re often living in 2 or 3 bedroom Upper East side apartments that cost about $5 million, that are likely smaller than your old brick rambler. And nobody’s concerned about these kids’ quality of life. They’re doing just fine.
In your situation, I’ll pass on one tip that might help you mentally accelerate your mortgage. I’m sure you know all about extra mortgage payments. But just try this. Go online to your bank and print out your current amortization schedule. With a $238,000 mortgage, your total principal and interest payment is probably something like $1200. Since you’re still early in the schedule, maybe each month you spend about $300 toward principal, and $900 toward interest. But don’t look at this month, look at NEXT month. The amount of next month’s principal is what you can consider the “cost” of eliminating an extra month of the payback period. So if you give them that amount of extra principal with this month’s payment, you’ve just paid off two months for slightly more than one. [there was a GRS post about this not too long ago that said the same thing, but I love it, so it's worth repeating] Naturally this gets more expensive to do as the balance goes down, but it’s fun to do now.
Sometimes when I get a bonus (or recently my tax refund) I’ll go online for my amortization schedule, look at the principal column, and count down the page as I add up each principal amount in the coming months. When my running sum equals the bonus amount that I’m adding to my mortgage payment, the number of lines I was able to count down equals the number of months that I just shortened my mortgage by.
For me, it’s absolutely addictive.
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“I have nearly a thirty-year horizon because I never expected to retire before 70.”
I think this attitude is a huge mistake. At age 40 you have no idea whether you will be able to work until age 70. That may be your plan, but your health and or potential employers may not cooperate.
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@ Ryan:
You’re right…my husband grew up 2 blocks over in the exact same style of brick ranch house with a family of 10! He was the one who was ready to move (probably because his parents still live in that house-haha).
Thanks so much for reminding me of that mortgage tip…I will most certainly do that! I, like J.D. and Kris, would like to do it all- pay down debt, add to savings, AND pay extra toward the mortgage. So hard with the kids in private schools @ $15,000+/year (the public schools here are AWFUL, property taxes are low). We do like where we live, and my husband’s job is secure, so we’re pretty certain that we will live here for AT LEAST a decade.
Have a great day and keep up your excellent comments…so many money-savvy people sharing their advice. This site is addicting…
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Verbatim from JD,
“I’m surprised at how many people complain about this advice. They think it’s facile because it’s basic; they want something inventive or new.”
….or exciting to get that emotional charge that comes from investing in the stock market.
I’m a big believer that investing should be “boring” and business should be “boring” meaning that both work like a well oil machine – systematic and always producing consistent results.
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@Ryan, #53:
And in my head I’ll do calculations about what it would take to have a comfortable life in Manhattan (and by my anti-debt/high savings rate standards, it’s prohibitively astronomical).
A lot depends on your definition of “comfortable life”. Most of my New York friends think my existence is pretty bare-bones because I cook for myself, buy all my clothes at thrift stores and on eBay, almost never buy alcohol in restaurants or bars, don’t have a TV, and live in the cheapest part of Manhattan. Meanwhile, most of my friends outside of New York are shocked by how high my rent is (we pay $1585 for a spacious 2BR in an elevator building, which is well below market rates these days) and how much we pay for groceries. I think I live pretty comfortably, but a lot of that is perspective.
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Hi JD,
Excellent blog.
I take issue with your last paragraph (conclusion). Sometimes ‘the basics’ are the basics because no one has yet accepted new ideas. One hundred years ago, no ‘prudent investor’ would own stocks. Today stocks are the primary holding for the prudent investor.
My point is that in today’s world we have a tool that reduces risk and prevents devastating losses. But that tool is just not in ‘the basics’ when it should be.
Stock options are not some high-risk tool for speculators. They are designed to reduce risk and limit losses to small, acceptable levels. And the best part is that protection can be had at no cost if the investor is willing to establish a limit on upside profits.
The COLLAR strategy is easy to learn and implement.
Mark
The Rookie’s Guide to Options.
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