Spare Change: Stock-Market Genius Edition
Published on - December 15th, 2010 (Modified on - December 19th, 2010) (by J.D. Roth) I’m a stock-market genius!
On December 1st, I wrote about an idiotic USA Today article, which tried to convince readers that investing on the first day of the month was a sound strategy. “Stock investors looking for a trading pattern that all but guarantees a profit need look no further than the first trading day of a new month,” the author wrote. He pointed out that in ten out of twelve months this year, the market has risen on the first day of the month.
I crunched my own numbers to find that on the eighth trading day of the month, the market had gone up nine out of eleven times. Sure enough, last Friday the market went up on the eighth trading day of December, too. Maybe I can pitch this news to USA Today so they’ll publish it in their Money section.
Okay, okay. Enough snottiness. It’s time to look at some of this week’s best financial stories from around the web:
First up, I know it’s getting a little late for this, but Yahoo Finance has a list of seven items worth waiting for — especially if you’re going to “gift” yourself. These are things like electronics, winter clothes, calendars, and so on — things that go on sale in the weeks after Christmas.
Even as I’m writing a column for Entrepreneur that gives tips on using credit cards wisely, Kiplinger is making the case for cutting out credit cards completely. Robert Long writes that he has no credit cards, and he’s happy that way. If you’ve thought about leaving credit behind, read about Long’s experience. I lived without a personal credit card for nearly a decade, so I know it can be done. But I know that it’s possible to live safely with credit cards, too.
Over at Gen-Y Wealth, RJ has a nice list of 20 financial milestones you want to reach in your 20s. I like this list, and I’d actually love to see similar lists for different age ranges. People could use it as a sort of road map to where they ought to be. I wonder if anyone has ever tried to compile such a beast. (Maybe I could try to create something like this…)
You all know how important I think it is to increase your income. Well, the Mighty Bargain Hunter has a short write-up listing five ways to make your hobbies pay. “If you’re looking to supplement your existing income, start with something you do well,” he advises. Then share it with others.
Finally, The Motley Fool has a list of ten really simple financial lessons to live by. These are all drawn from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book, The Bed of Procrustes. They’re simple aphorisms to live your life by, like: “The sucker’s trap is when you focus on what you know and what others don’t know, rather than the reverse.” Sort of like investing on the first (or eighth) trading day of the month because it always goes up!
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This article is about Spare Change
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JD,
I am checking out the other articles you mentioned and they are quite useful. I didn’t know NNT had a new book out, but I’ll have to take a look. I enjoyed the Black Swan!
Congratulations on the article
Brett
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I liked the 20 financial milestones. I am 25 and many of my goals are summed up in this post!
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Personally I buy all my stocks on days that end in -y and don’t start with s-. Seems to work out pretty well. Then I spend the rest of my time figuring out which stocks to buy.
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You, my friend, are a genius. And you’re giving away this insight for free? Crazy.
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I liked the financial milestones link as well, but I think it’s pretty unrealistic to have 6 months of living expenses saved by the time you’re 30 (unless you’re on a low wage).
Unfortunately life, mortgages and children often get in the way! 6 months of living expenses for me would be a 10% deposit on a modest 2 bedroom flat in a reasonable area – I wouldn’t have this sort of money just sitting around getting pounded by inflation!
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I happened to read #5 so let me comment on that before my own… I JUST turned 30 in midOCT, and JUST managed 6mos of expenses in savings before that point. Not sure if he meant it’s not possible, or not necessary. But I absolutely could have done it sooner if I had seen the light a little sooner. Even married, single income, 1 kid.
And as for the Milestones… I don’t think it’s a very feasible idea (thus why it really hasn’t been done) There are SOO many differences in peoples lives that it’s not going to be valid. I’ve been noticing that I have classmates from Highschool, who have 10year old children and a home. My wife and I have a 3yo,& currently rent. And some who aren’t even married yet. These differences shift life patterns alot. Not to mention differences due to College,Military service, and “Parental Support”. I prefer to gauge myself off peers at a relavent life period.
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Buy a finacial plan certificate as a gift for your friends with only $99. Here is the link: http://www.peoplesfinancialadvisor.com/gift.php
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@ #6 – I meant for many people it’s not possible (certainly not in the UK, where I’m from).
From what I read, it’s possible to buy multi-unit residential properties in the USA for $100k or less (very rough estimate from reading PF blogs there!) – the average price for a house in the UK is over £200k/$350k.
So, taking out a mortgage on a reasonable home and saving 6 months of living expenses by 30 doesn’t look very likely here!
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@LifeandMyFinances – Thanks. Great to hear you’re off to a great start.
@Luke – Thanks Luke. My goal was to give an outline of different goals to reach in your 20′s. It’s not as if you have to reach them all. Although, if I were listing the goals from most important to least, a six month emergency fund would be in the top five most important.
@JD – I can’t thank you enough for the link.
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Thanks for the response RJ, it was a well thought out list that a lot of people can aim towards achieving.
Of course we’re all different, but some universally sound advice there
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I agree with @6 (and recognize that RJ is just generalizing). I’m 27 and married with no kids – we are both still in graduate school though so our lives are different from my classmates who finished college at 22 and have had 5 years to build up. That said, I DO have a 6 mo fund, I DO have sub-savings accounts, I DO monitor my credit (and have a fantastic score), I have no bad debt, I pay my CC in full each month, and I don’t say yes to financial salespeople. That said, we cannot at this time fully fund our Roth (and have no 401k), I don’t know a retirement date (although I’m investing like it’s sooner than it will be), I donate time, not money, and I have no time for a side job (although my husband teaches lessons and has probably earned an extra $1000 over the year). We are getting that degree to increase earning power though!
JD – if you do make a list for other years, or if anyone does, please keep in mind that we aren’t all the same, that’s the biggest problem I’ve found with those lists, they assume we have kids, we all finished school by 22-24, we all own a home, we all plan on retirement asap, etc…I would like to see unique lists or paths that we can follow (like a pick-your-own-adventure book).
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I’m not usually a “top 10 list” kind of guy, but RJ’s write-up is something that I can get behind. There’s some really good advice there.
One gripe though. #1 is way over-prioritized compared to other items like paying down credit card and student loan debt. Advising people to pay cash for a vacation ahead of paying off CC and student debt is bad advice.
$40k of student loan debt at an average rate of 8% will cost you $3200 per year to put off. You’re far better off buckling down and paying off your loans sooner than you are on a dream vacation for cash. Once you pay your loans down, that money that would have gone to the bank to pay off interest is better served paying for margaritas at the beach. Maybe RJ can shed some light on this particular decision?
I’m 26 years old and have covered a large portion of what’s here. I think it is absolutely reasonable if you start soon enough. Here’s where I stand (if you’re interested):
#1 – Outstanding
#2 – In Progress
#3 – Done
#4 – In Progress (See #2)
#5 – In Progress
#6 – Done
#7 – Done
#8 & #9 – Will be done in Jan
#10 – Done
#11 – Done
#12 – Done
#13 – Incomplete
#14 – Done
#15 – Done
#16 – Done
#17 – Done
#18 – Incomplete
#19 – Not realistic in my view unless you’re talking about variable expenses only.
#20 – Incomplete
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JD, will your Entrepreneur articles be online or just in the mag? Congrats on the new gig!
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JD, thanks for the link to the 20′s article. There’s a lot of us 20-somethings around here, and it’s good to see some advice for us specifically! I’ll check out RJ’s site too.
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If you really dig into this, I think you will find that there are seasonal influences in the market that can be exploited. Norman Fosback has written extensively on seasonal, monthly, weekly patterens in the market. Mark Hulbert has been reviewing market newsletters for years and Fosback’s seasonality system is like the number one. Part of the beauty of it is that it is out of the market earning interest for two thirds of the time. I have personally made money on it. I suggest a google search on seasonality and fosback…
Here is Fosbacks explaination http://www.fosback.com/seasonality_system.htm
or just check out this article.
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/03/09/fosback-seasonality-strategy/
Fridays are better than Mondays and the month end period is better than the rest of the month and days around holidays are the best for positive stock market movement.
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Give me a break! There is so much empirical evidence supporting the efficiency of the markets most of the time, it’s amazing people believe these silly theories!
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MSN money has a good page of milestones by decade. The page also provides some interesting statistics to see how your finances match up with others your age.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Retirementandwills/Createaplan/Createaplan.aspx
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