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 Post subject: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:29 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
I was talking with a friend today about the concept of savings based lotteries. Briefly, they are set up like a savings account, but with 0% interest. Instead, all of the interest across the pool of deposits is periodically awarded to one or a few depositors in a lottery format (i.e. you get one entry or ticket for each $10 dollars you have on deposit).

For example, assume a total total deposit pool was $10,000,000 and a 1% interest rate. At the end of the year, there is $100,000 in interest that would be awarded to a select few persons as follows: 1 top prize of $50,000, 2 $10,000 prizes, 4 $5,000 prizes and 10, $1,000 prizes. (Or any variation). The term could be each month, or year, etc.

The idea is to increase savings by giving people the chance (albeit small) of a huge (relatively) payout in exchange for giving up a tiny interest rate.

Would you participate?


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:07 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:01 am
Posts: 4597
bpgui wrote:
Would you participate?


No. Although admittedly you have created a system that could have the same (positive) expected value as one would obtain with a simple savings account under the same conditions and with the same institution, the risk of losing the opportunity cost is significant.

But you have posed an interesting philosophical question related to utility theory - look it up!


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:54 pm 

Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:15 pm
Posts: 968
I wouldn't participate either. Not enough expected value.


Last edited by Tightwad on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:12 am 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
I think I would with a small amount. I keep about $2,000 of my emergency fund in savings at my local bank to cover the possibility I would need the money immediately in an emergency (the rest is at Vanguard and it would take a few days to get the transfer done). The interest rate is a paltry .5%. I think I would give up the roughly $10 in interest each year for the (small chance) of getting a much larger payout.

I don't think I would participate any more than that. I do however think it would be extremely popular.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 6:34 am 

Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:19 pm
Posts: 1516
Location: Ottawa, Canada
Wouldn't you have to pay taxes on your "winnings?" Would it be taxed differently than how interest income is currently taxed? Would the bank need a lottery license? Would you have to be 21 to participate? How much money would the bank make off the "spread"? Would the banks have to contribute a portion (40-50%) of the proceeds back to the government, like other lotteries?

It seems far too complicated to ever actually be brought into existence. That said, I would not participate. I'll take my guaranteed 1-2% rather than a Hail-Mary 500,000%.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:31 am 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
kombat wrote:
Wouldn't you have to pay taxes on your "winnings?" Would it be taxed differently than how interest income is currently taxed? Would the bank need a lottery license? Would you have to be 21 to participate? How much money would the bank make off the "spread"? Would the banks have to contribute a portion (40-50%) of the proceeds back to the government, like other lotteries?

It seems far too complicated to ever actually be brought into existence. That said, I would not participate. I'll take my guaranteed 1-2% rather than a Hail-Mary 500,000%.

From our discussion, it was clear that it would currently be illegal under most state lottery laws. Although, Michigan may have a loophole that allows a variation. It was based on experiments in other countries.

The other questions can't be answered as it it a hypothetical.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:25 pm 

Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:29 pm
Posts: 1335
Location: Seattle, WA
I would consider participating if it were neutral or positive expectation. Which seems unlikely. Also, depending on how scheme-y it seemed, I might want an additional premium for the perceived risk... so in the end, yes I would participate, but only under conditions that are exceedingly unlikely to be met.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:04 pm 

Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2011 3:43 pm
Posts: 97
As long as my principal was protected, I would probably put a $1000 in an account like this. If I got lucky and got the "prize" it would be worth it to me, if I didn't the most I would have "lost" out on would be minimal and I could accept that risk.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:05 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
stannius wrote:
I would consider participating if it were neutral or positive expectation. Which seems unlikely. Also, depending on how scheme-y it seemed, I might want an additional premium for the perceived risk... so in the end, yes I would participate, but only under conditions that are exceedingly unlikely to be met.

What is the perceived risk?

The way it was explained to me, no one could lose any of their principal balance. They just gave up the interest rate for the chance to cash in on a larger payout.

I imagine banks could (again it hypothetically as it would be against lottery laws) implement the system without the need to take a cut for themselves. They would be paying the same interest whether it is a small amount to everyone or large amounts to just a few. It would likely attract more deposits with which they could loan out and make more money. Plus they would have somewhat lower costs in that they would not have to issue and mail 1099-INTs to every depositor, just the winners.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:13 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
kombat wrote:
It seems far too complicated to ever actually be brought into existence. That said, I would not participate. I'll take my guaranteed 1-2% rather than a Hail-Mary 500,000%.

I wouldn't say it couldn't be done. Variations have been done in several (non-US) countries.
For example:
Quote:
The government of the UK offers a variation on the standard Lottery Bond. Through the NS&I (National Savings and Investment), the public can purchase Premium Bonds worth £1 each, with a minimum spend of £100 (or £50 if paying by monthly standing order). The maximum (as of the 2007 tax year) that an individual can hold is £30,000.

The bonds themselves attract no interest, are perpetual and are redeemable at par (face value) at any time. The attraction for an investor is that, each month, a draw takes place and, should an investor hold one of the bond numbers chosen, then the bond-holder will be awarded a prize of variable value.

As of July 2007, there were two £1 million prizes awarded each month, plus over 1 million smaller prizes ranging in value from £50 up to £500,000. All prizes are tax free and, with approximately 23 billion bonds issued, the chances of any one bond winning a prize for that month are approximately 24000 to 1. However, it is important to recognise that, on winning a prize, the bond is not redeemed but remains 'in the pool' for all forthcoming draws.

The prize fund is paid for out of the equivalent interest payable on the entire bond pool for that month. As of July 2007 this is 3.80%. A bond holder with a sufficiently large pool of premium bonds could hence reasonably expect to achieve this type of return should he hold his bonds for long enough.

Although riskier than a typical European bond, the UK Premium Bond offers the chance of enjoying a significantly larger windfall.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_Bond

South Africa also had a variation that was reportedly extremely popular, until the National lottery shut it down for being an illegal lottery.


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:17 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 846
Location: Illinois
Extra post since only 1 url can be posted in each message

Michigan credit unions also seem to have a variation based on CDs http://www.mcul.org/Save_to_Win_2187.html


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 Post subject: Re: Savings based lotteries
PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:28 am 

Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:18 am
Posts: 3
I would probably participate with a small amount at the beginning. If I got comfortable with that I might invest more and more. Interesting concept!


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