Northern light wrote:
Plain text: US growth will be relatively low the upcoming 10-20 years, as will income gains (from labour and capital) - and therefore gains in house prices. 1,5-2,5% a year seems reasoneble. In real terms my guess is US salarys and house prices will gain no ground the next 10-15 years.
There is a fairly sound basis for home prices to follow rebuilding costs. This is borne out by both historical data and common sense. (Why would anyone pay more for an appreciated older house rather than build a new one in the same location? You can point to historical value but that only applies in limited situations.)
Rebuilding costs basically follow inflation because houses use a diverse mix of labor and materials.
Together, the above two premises mean that housing prices can be expected to increase with inflation and no more. Inflation in the US will be around 2% for the next 30 years if you believe the bond markets.
So, I agree with Northern Light's numbers. If you back your assumed appreciation rate down to 1.5-2% things begin to look different.