They Got 2012 Right. What About 2013?

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They Got 2012 Right. What About 2013?

Postby jaiko » Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:22 am

They Got 2012 Right. What About 2013?
from columnist James Stewart, NY Times January 11, 2013

(Excerpted)…..My annual survey suggests that investment experts are cautiously upbeat about the economy and the stock market (but not bonds) for 2013, even though they acknowledge that political dysfunction in Washington poses risks. The tax deal may have upset Tea Party Republicans looking for big cuts in entitlement spending and liberals demanding even bigger tax increases on the wealthy. But investors seem to be taking the long view that the warring factions did in the end reach a deal, and it amounts to a $4 trillion stimulus compared with what would have happened if Congress had done nothing. Stimulus may be a bad word in Washington, but many investors seem to believe that continued deficit spending and only a modest tax increase will be good for the economy and corporate profits, at least this year.

The experts I consulted a year ago — Bill Miller for stocks, Bill Gross for bonds and Karl E. Case for real estate — proved accurate in their predictions for 2012. So I asked them for a return engagement.

(Note: the NY Times website allows up to 10 free articles per month; after that there is a charge per article)
Full article at: ... -2013.html

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Re: They Got 2012 Right. What About 2013?

Postby DoingHomework » Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:18 pm

This is an interesting article.

One thing I find particularly interesting is Bill Miller's performance. While I do not believe it is possible to beat the market over the long term by picking stocks, Miller has apparently done that. Much was made of his failure to continue his excellent performance starting in 2005. But starting about that time the markets were clearly imbalanced, and many objective measures confirmed that. Things were not behaving as they should. Now, since around 2011 the behavior has returned to historical norms, not in % return but in overall relative returns. Things have gotten to be much more as they should be.

I'll continue with my mostly index investing and keep fees very low. But I think it is intriguing that Miller seems to be continuing his good record.

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