Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 500

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GoldbergFinancial
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Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 500

Postby GoldbergFinancial » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:26 am

I am an investment advisor that follows market timing, I know the vast majority of you will write awful stuff on here because I make a post like this but I don't want anything to get hit hard in this coming sell off. My models indicate a sell off is coming in this area. The same models that indicated a bottom in November at 1340. Don't get caught in the sell off and lose money.

Michael Goldberg
http://www.GoldbergFinancialLLC.com

Justus
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby Justus » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:10 am

So now's the time to go all in, right?

GoldbergFinancial
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby GoldbergFinancial » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:18 pm

That post was written at 10:26 AM east coast time when the market was at 1526 before all of today's selling ensued. I am sure there will be other things to say, after all, Bichon hasn't responded yet. This approach works and yes people, it works over time as well. I am sure I will get some of those emails too, lucky guess. From here we could still move back higher but its clear that investors see this as a topping area and a short position at 1526 looks very safe from here on out.

Michael Goldberg
http://www.GoldbergFinancialLLC.com

brad
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby brad » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:12 pm

Whether you lose money in stock market dips depends on your investment time horizon. If you're investing for a distant goal like retirement 30 years in the future, a dip or even a full-blown crash in the market today may have no impact at all on the growth you ultimately see in your portfolio.

You "lost" your money the moment you exchanged your dollars for shares. You no longer have money, you have shares whose value fluctuates. If their value falls, you haven't lost money unless you panic and pull out of the market; the cash you receive from the sale will be less than the cash you put in when you bought your shares.

If you are investing for the long term, why should you worry about trying to maximize your short-term returns and protect yourself against sell-offs?

If you need the money soon, I agree that you have to watch the market closely and start thinking about timing and minimizing your losses in case of a sell-off. But not everyone's in that situation.

GoldbergFinancial
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby GoldbergFinancial » Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:35 am

Brad

The problem is most people use that as a cop-out, they hold losing stocks for years hoping these penny stocks go back up or these stocks fly back up, it doesn't happen. The actual truth is you lose money as soon as those shares lose value, even if you don't book the losses, the money is gone AND EVEN WORSE is the opportunity cost lost when investors hold loser stocks for years waiting for them to come back up because they don't want to sell.

The bottom line is investors that didn't know any better about the 2000 and 2008 crashes had to wait 5 years to get back to where they were to break even. Thats an awful lot of time, and money, to waste and especially compare to my system because instead you could profited.

I am not advocating jumping in and out, I make changes once every few months and only buy low cost index funds but watching the market sell off only to lose months and months of prior gains in a few weeks or a month is pointless, you can't make a rational argument for why thats ok, I don't care how long you want to say your time horizon is.

Michael Goldberg
http://www.GoldbergFinancialLLC.com

chasely
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby chasely » Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:45 am

Individual stocks are for rich people or chumps :D

brad
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby brad » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:20 am

GoldbergFinancial wrote:The bottom line is investors that didn't know any better about the 2000 and 2008 crashes had to wait 5 years to get back to where they were to break even. Thats an awful lot of time, and money, to waste and especially compare to my system because instead you could profited.


But if you follow the common advice to have a balanced portfolio of index funds and (mostly government) bond funds, you don't experience anything like this amount of volatility. Diversification worked well in 2008: http://howtoinvestonline.blogspot.ca/20 ... dy-in.html.

I know you keep saying that everything is correlated now so diversification won't protect you, but I don't see a lot of evidence for that, especially if you consider government vs. corporate bonds. The traditional "couch potato" approach relies on low correlation and a diversity of asset classes to reduce volatility for those who can't stomach it. I haven't seen any convincing evidence to suggest that this strategy will not continue to work going forward.

DaveInPgh
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby DaveInPgh » Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:36 pm

Michael, your thoughts on the following?

Investors pulled $1 billion out of stock funds last week -- just before the Dow hit a record.

http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post ... 924b308190

VinTek
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby VinTek » Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:11 am

GoldbergFinancial wrote:That post was written at 10:26 AM east coast time when the market was at 1526 before all of today's selling ensued. I am sure there will be other things to say, after all, Bichon hasn't responded yet. This approach works and yes people, it works over time as well. I am sure I will get some of those emails too, lucky guess. From here we could still move back higher but its clear that investors see this as a topping area and a short position at 1526 looks very safe from here on out.

Well the SP500 is at 1551 as I type this, having closed at 1556 yesterday. The approach evidently doesn't work consistently even over the short term. This does suggest that your November call was a random success. No doubt you'll have other success and other failures; this is what randomness is all about. Fortunately you hedge the effectiveness of your approach with the following statement on your Web site:

GoldbergFinancial wrote:Investing involves risk of loss. Goldberg Financial, LLC, does not guarantee the performance of any investments.

That's an odd statement to make when you claim that your method helps your clients to avoid such losses.

DaveInPugh wrote:Michael, your thoughts on the following?

You probably won't hear from him for awhile. He's probably hiding from the clients who are wandering the countryside with torches and pitchforks, looking for him. Have you read his blog? It's interesting. Here are some examples:

Tuesday, February 26, 2013
So How Low Do We Go? 1400 in the S&P...easily
After predicting the sell off yesterday morning before we sold off, the next question might be how low do we go. I'd say we easily go back to 1400 before finding any sort of floor here. Thats about 100 more points to the downside. Quite a call but its what my models are showing.

Monday, February 25, 2013
Stocks To Sell Off From Here
With the S&P 500 now back up in this 1525-1530 area I see an impending market sell off is extremely likely. My timing models are indicating a move back into this area and not enough strength for the market to move higher from here. I believe this will result in a market sell off.

When the stock market sells off it drags most stocks and stock based mutual funds down with it. You are fighting a tidal wave and trying to find stocks that move higher as markets sell off hard is like finding a needle in a haystack. Thats why I advocate the investment approach that I advocate, the trend is your friend, don't fight it. When you invest alongside a trend moving higher or lower just go along with it, you will have a much greater chance of being successful.

And one last thing...don't believe the advisors or financial planners that tell you determining the near term moves of the stock market are impossible. These advisors make their money by just keeping you invested 100% of the time, they are not looking out for you.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013
I Hate To Say This, But You Just Can't Win From Here
Sorry to say you just can't win from here in the standard buy and hold mutual fund approach that almost all advisors are using. As we approach all time high levels in the stock market it becomes increasingly more likely that the next major move is down and unless your advisor has moved your money into mutual funds that somehow go up in value as the market crashes, the good times are just about over.

That is why I offer a program that can make money in up or down market and why at times like this it is so vitally important to be in a program like mine. The market can not continue higher forever.


Actually, advisors make their money trading in and out of assets with their clients' money, thus generating fees.

The market will probably go down at some point. I think a correction is due. But on the other hand, I really don't know that for sure. We could be in another period of irrational exuberance. But that's the point, isn't it? Nobody really knows.

VinTek
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby VinTek » Fri Mar 15, 2013 8:16 am

Well, the SP500 closed at 1563 yesterday. It's down today as I write this, but that was the case in my last post too.

Oddly enough, he hasn't posted in his own blog since February 26, when he predicted that the SP500 would easily go down to 1400 before finding it's floor.

I'm guessing that he's revising his models and when he's done, will tell everyone how foolproof the new ones are, like we haven't heard that before..

They never learn...

DaveInPgh
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby DaveInPgh » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:17 am

Yeah, I imagine he feels a bit foolish right now.

VinTek
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Re: Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 5

Postby VinTek » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:39 am

What gets me is that he should've clued in well before this. He kept crowing about making the right call in November, but he never mentions the following post he made in his blog:
Thursday, December 6, 2012
My Take on Two Investments I Think Are About to Move Much Higher
I generally don't like to name actual investments on my blog, since my clients pay for these services, but I understand I need to demonstrate an understanding of when to buy to make money investing and hopefully I can prove to you my understanding. On that note I am going to recommend right here right now that I like Gold (via GLD Etf) and Apple (Symbol AAPL) right here. Time will tell if I am correct or not but I think both of these assets will soon begin to move higher.

Well on December 6, AAPL closed at $547.24 and GLD closed at $164.50. Yesterday, they closed respectively at $432.50 and $153.58. I'll bet he's had some very unhappy clients, even before this most recent run-up in the markets.

It's funny. Most funds and advisors add the standard disclaimer that "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results" but for some reason, chartists fervently believe the exact opposite.

GoldbergFinancial
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The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended

Postby GoldbergFinancial » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:00 am

You can read my full post here: http://financeinlife.blogspot.com/2013/ ... ended.html

What I am communicating is not that the market crashes from here or that we have an immediate sell off. Just that this uptrend is broken and I would not expect the market to reach highs any more than just a quick fluctuation over these levels.

Michael Goldberg
Goldberg Financial

VinTek
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Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended

Postby VinTek » Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:24 am

What about this? It's been almost 4 months. Why hasn't this come to pass?

Thursday, December 6, 2012
My Take on Two Investments I Think Are About to Move Much Higher
I generally don't like to name actual investments on my blog, since my clients pay for these services, but I understand I need to demonstrate an understanding of when to buy to make money investing and hopefully I can prove to you my understanding. On that note I am going to recommend right here right now that I like Gold (via GLD Etf) and Apple (Symbol AAPL) right here. Time will tell if I am correct or not but I think both of these assets will soon begin to move higher.

Your clients pay for this advice?

And why don't you post this on the original thread? Let's have a nice long-term look at your results. Context is a good thing, don't you think?

DaveInPgh
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Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended

Postby DaveInPgh » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:11 am

He is back. :rofl:

Michael, Vintek asks a great question. Why don't you bump the prior threads that you had posted?

Why did you abandon your thread below?

Stocks To Sell Off From This 1525-1530 Area in the S&P 500


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