You trot out a bunch of factoids to support your argument but when asked to put it in context, you turn around and say they don't count.
I corrected your incorrect assertion that "the market has returned 10%", then explained why I think the implied assumption ("so it will continue to do so indefinitely into the future") is also wrong.
Actually, I'm not wrong, at least about the 10%. You haven't done the math over a 30-year period (and I'm saying any
consecutive 30-year period. You can even include the last 2 downturns if you like. Or you can include the Great Depression if you like), including dividends. And don't put words in my mouth. I merely pointed out historical fact. We've been through depressions, recessions, 2 world wars which literally trashed Europe and Asia, a cold war, and the market went on, doing what it does. Seriously, do the 30-year period math. It's pretty obvious you didn't try it the last time it was suggested to you a few years ago.
And my request for math in the post above was in response to your statement that gains like those we've had historically were mathematically impossible
(your words). I was just asking to see the math that supported your statement.
Paying off the mortgage is a sure thing.
So is a passbook savings account. Is that where you keep all your money?
Not as long as I have a mortgage, no.
All our extra money is currently going toward our mortgage. We're not currently adding anything new to investment or retirement savings. We're leaving the money that's already in retirement savings where it is, due to the unpleasant tax implications of taking it out. But we're not adding any more to the pile until we own our home free and clear.
That's a pity (and I mean that sincerely, not in a sarcastic way), because every dollar you put into the market during the downturn would have yielded considerable gains. You know, buy low and all that.
And our mortgage is currently 3.69%. We have no deduction for mortgage interest up here in Canada, so 3.69% is what it is, no adjustment necessary. So to answer your question, if I could find a passbook savings account that returned a guaranteed 3.69%, then yes, that's exactly where I would put my money. But currently, they're only paying less than 1%, so I'm forced to take risks with my money if I ever want to see it grow.
forced to take that risk. You choose
to take that risk, in exchange for potential growth. And that's what investing is: taking calculated risks in exchange for calculated growth. You can have nice safe gains of less than 1% or take on more risk for greater returns (and volatility). I don't consider your 3.69% a true gain. Seems more like an assured reduction of liability to me.