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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:57 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1768
Oh, and Michael, what's the expiration date on your predictions? 30 days? No, we're past that. 60 days? 90 days?

The thing is, the market will eventually correct, as it always has, and revert to the mean. I don't think you should necessarily be taking credit for it when it happens, since it's an inevitable thing. What you're offering is actually timing. After all, Greenspan spoke of "irrational exuberance" in the market in 1997, but it wasn't until 2000 that the tech bubble actually burst. Greenspan was right, but his timing did not make his prediction actionable.


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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:34 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:33 pm
Posts: 1132
Location: Illinois
February 25 you were saying a short position in the S&P was looking very safe... how'd that work out for you?


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 Post subject: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended -who cares!
PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:17 am 

Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2011 7:25 am
Posts: 668
Quote:
The uptrend in stocks has ended


As a long term stock market investor I say "who cares". This talk of trying to time the market is more often then not a fools game. Warren Buffet said buy a good stock at a great price and hang on to it. and never put more then a one seventh of your capital into any single investment.

The difference between investor and a speculator is that a speculator chases every return out there and pays attention to he latest fad. And always has his eyes on the ticker - The investor buys a diverse set of dividend paying stocks, reinvests the dividends and sits back and let's the magic happen.

There really is no place in a Get Rich Slowly forum for this kind of nonsense until they open a "Are you ready to lose your money" titled forum.


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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 6:17 am 

Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2012 7:33 am
Posts: 43
Hello friendly forum people

Understood, and good points. Anytime you put recommendations in print you can always look like a fool. Doug Kass has, HS Dent has, its very difficult to predict the market in stone long term especially when you can't make quick changes to your posts as developments occur. Vintek, lets talk about context though, you pulled up some other incorrect posts but why did you ignore my November post about stocks bottoming around 1340 then heading up to 1550? That was a fantastic posts and centers around my analysis of the S&P 500 (which is what I actually invest my clients in) You somehow missed that one on there?

Its right here: http://financeinlife.blogspot.com/2012/11/stocks-will-rallyone-last-time.html

And as far as the other posts about market tops go, its hard to reverse that once we find a renewed uptrend higher thats why the entire effort of making predictions is so difficult, of course you can look like a fool. We bought back in and rode that up to 1569 but we have since gone to cash. Every move of mine is not going to be entered on this forum. I called a 3% down day swing 2 hours before it happened that doesn't matter at all? All that matter is that the market did eventually resume a move higher again but you all just key on whatever part doesn't work.

Anytime you even make a post on here to try to keep people from losing money, instead of people looking at it as help, its crucified. You get a bunch of angry buy and holders that take value investing and warren buffet's investment approach completely out of context and somehow take incorrect predictions and use that as justification to buy and hold forever. Like that was the essence of value investing. You all quote the same things over and over again on here but the bottom line is this, buy and hold investing will never outperform an approach of avoiding sell offs and/or shorting the market when clear set ups for downside sell offs present themself. Just go back to 2000 and calculate a true buy and hold approach, you would just be breaking even now.

Also TRUE value investing is a full time job. Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor are like reading a college finance textbook. Using PE screening tools and book value per share indicators reading quarterly reports and truly following the tenants of value investing is incredibly time consuming. If you want to discuss timing Vintek, why is that never taken into account? Oh eventually stocks will get back to their all time highs, even if I lose 4-6 years of gains waiting for it to happen?

The bottom line is this, the posts on here are not meant to offend you, they are posts I hope do help people. I am also always trying to get better at what I do, I won't always be right and posting on this site is like walking into a lion's den as a zebra. People are so quick to shoot you down.

As far as I know, and I wish you the best if I am incorrect in your business endeavors, I am the only one on this thread actually managing millions of dollars of other people's money. Also the the average hedge fund investment return for Quarter 1 2013 were posted on CNBC yesterday and my performance investment program (after all fees were taken) beat the average hedge fund return in the first quarter by 400%. So yes I wont always be right but these periodic posts do not encapsulate every investment move I make.


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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 6:50 am 

Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:49 pm
Posts: 257
Location: Cincinnati, OH
GoldbergFinancial wrote:
I am the only one on this thread actually managing millions of dollars of other people's money.


How much money did Bernie Madoff "manage" in his investment management and advisory division?

Just sayin...

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Ohio Loan Officer / Manager @ Mortgage Broker
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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:27 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 2:23 pm
Posts: 810
GoldbergFinancial wrote:

As far as I know, and I wish you the best if I am incorrect in your business endeavors, I am the only one on this thread actually managing millions of dollars of other people's money.


I'm quite positive you aren't the only managing millions.

_________________
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"If you only have 1 year to live, move to Penn...as it will seem like an eternity."


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 Post subject: Re: The Uptrend in Stocks Has Ended
PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:44 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1768
GoldbergFinancial wrote:
Hello friendly forum people

Understood, and good points. Anytime you put recommendations in print you can always look like a fool. Doug Kass has, HS Dent has, its very difficult to predict the market in stone long term especially when you can't make quick changes to your posts as developments occur. Vintek, lets talk about context though, you pulled up some other incorrect posts but why did you ignore my November post about stocks bottoming around 1340 then heading up to 1550? That was a fantastic posts and centers around my analysis of the S&P 500 (which is what I actually invest my clients in) You somehow missed that one on there?

Its right here: http://financeinlife.blogspot.com/2012/11/stocks-will-rallyone-last-time.html

Didn't miss it. You'd already called it out the the other thread. I only called out what you neglected to. Context, m'boy, context.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
And as far as the other posts about market tops go, its hard to reverse that once we find a renewed uptrend higher thats why the entire effort of making predictions is so difficult, of course you can look like a fool. We bought back in and rode that up to 1569 but we have since gone to cash. Every move of mine is not going to be entered on this forum. I called a 3% down day swing 2 hours before it happened that doesn't matter at all? All that matter is that the market did eventually resume a move higher again but you all just key on whatever part doesn't work.

No, it doesn't count. Not when the market recovered and went even higher in the succeeding days. You yourself have said that you don't time the market but go with the trends, trading every few months. So now you're telling me that even though you only trade every few month, 1 day is supposed to matter? Basically over the past month, it hasn't worked.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
Anytime you even make a post on here to try to keep people from losing money, instead of people looking at it as help, its crucified.

And for good reason. It's wrong. You were right in November. You were wrong about AAPL and GLD. And so far, you're wrong about the overall market. We're trying to keep people from hurting themselves by trading in and out because nobody can predict the market. So far, you're 1 for 4. And the time you've been right could just be randomness at work. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
You get a bunch of angry buy and holders that take value investing and warren buffet's investment approach completely out of context and somehow take incorrect predictions and use that as justification to buy and hold forever. Like that was the essence of value investing.

Show me that quote. It didn't come from me.
GoldbergFinancial wrote:
You all quote the same things over and over again on here but the bottom line is this, buy and hold investing will never outperform an approach of avoiding sell offs and/or shorting the market when clear set ups for downside sell offs present themself. Just go back to 2000 and calculate a true buy and hold approach, you would just be breaking even now.

Not if you were dollar cost averaging. I actually made the most money during the last 2 downturns because I was buying stocks on the cheap.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
Also TRUE value investing is a full time job. Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor are like reading a college finance textbook. Using PE screening tools and book value per share indicators reading quarterly reports and truly following the tenants of value investing is incredibly time consuming. If you want to discuss timing Vintek, why is that never taken into account? Oh eventually stocks will get back to their all time highs, even if I lose 4-6 years of gains waiting for it to happen?

I'm not a advocate of value investing. I think you're mistaking me for Matthew Clinger. You are obviously confused.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
The bottom line is this, the posts on here are not meant to offend you, they are posts I hope do help people. I am also always trying to get better at what I do, I won't always be right and posting on this site is like walking into a lion's den as a zebra. People are so quick to shoot you down.

And my bottom line is, you're not helping people It's fine if you want to be the zebra, but it's not a good thing when you try to drag others into the lion's den (the lions being the market, not us).

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
As far as I know, and I wish you the best if I am incorrect in your business endeavors, I am the only one on this thread actually managing millions of dollars of other people's money.

The may be true. But then again, there are several of us managing millions of dollars of our own money. We didn't get there by following your advice. And since you're new in the business, it's pretty obvious that your clients didn't get there because of you either.

GoldbergFinancial wrote:
Also the the average hedge fund investment return for Quarter 1 2013 were posted on CNBC yesterday and my performance investment program (after all fees were taken) beat the average hedge fund return in the first quarter by 400%. So yes I wont always be right but these periodic posts do not encapsulate every investment move I make.

Then what's the point of your posts? If people here follow your advice, then it's incomplete advice.


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 Post subject: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likely
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:08 am 

Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2012 7:33 am
Posts: 43
My post 2 days ago was that the uptrend in stocks on a short term basis had ended. The analysis has now shifted to an impending sell off due to the nature of the breakdown in fundamentals. I believe a sharp sell off will occur very soon at which point, once the selling has ended, an opportunity to buy stocks at much lower levels will present itself.

Post here: http://financeinlife.blogspot.com/2013/04/market-fundamentals-plummetting-sell.html


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:42 am 

Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 7:07 am
Posts: 201
Define very soon. And, while you're at it, sharp decline.


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 8:12 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1768
Why don't you stick to the same thread? Don't like the idea of having a track record that's easy to look at?

Like I've said elsewhere, the market will eventually go down. You keep saying that is will and eventually you'll be right. You never really addressed my prior question: how long are your predictions good for before they expire?


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:02 am 

Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:28 am
Posts: 249
Location: Pittsburgh
I recall seeing a post from a moderator telling him he is on thin ice here. I wish the ice would break and he would get banned already.


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:12 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1768
Actually, he's a good example. Lots of people buy in to the kind of stuff he's selling. I'd rather he post stuff here so we can point out it's flaws.

Come to think of it, the market has been rather high. If people are appropriately rebalancing, they shouldn't get into deep trouble. They'd have already sold off some of their equities to keep their asset allocation in the right place. The thing is, Goldberg's "all in" and "all out" methods are dangerous because no one knows where the tops or bottoms will be in the market.


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:58 am 

Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:05 pm
Posts: 1323
VinTek wrote:
Come to think of it, the market has been rather high. If people are appropriately rebalancing, they shouldn't get into deep trouble. They'd have already sold off some of their equities to keep their asset allocation in the right place.


While I agree with this, I would just make two observations:

1. There's a lot of concern and uncertainty out there about bond funds right now, so some people may be avoiding rebalancing because they're not sure where to rebalance to. Should they stick with the plan and buy bond funds, or go to cash? CDs? It's not quite as easy an answer as it used to be.

2. Some people rebalance on a calendar schedule rather than based on monitoring their asset allocation every week or month. So they may not be aware that their asset allocation is out of whack due to the increase in value of the equity portion of their portfolio.

Even so, I'd argue that "deep trouble" really depends on your time horizon. If my portfolio lost 50% of its value tomorrow I'd probably yawn and sit back, waiting for it to recover; I've still got 15-20 years before I start needing that money, which is plenty of time for growth.


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:33 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1768
brad wrote:
While I agree with this, I would just make two observations:

1. There's a lot of concern and uncertainty out there about bond funds right now, so some people may be avoiding rebalancing because they're not sure where to rebalance to. Should they stick with the plan and buy bond funds, or go to cash? CDs? It's not quite as easy an answer as it used to be.

2. Some people rebalance on a calendar schedule rather than based on monitoring their asset allocation every week or month. So they may not be aware that their asset allocation is out of whack due to the increase in value of the equity portion of their portfolio.

Even so, I'd argue that "deep trouble" really depends on your time horizon. If my portfolio lost 50% of its value tomorrow I'd probably yawn and sit back, waiting for it to recover; I've still got 15-20 years before I start needing that money, which is plenty of time for growth.

Those are good observations, and my answer is: I don't know.

Everyone says that bonds are slated to go down as interest rates go up and this might be true. The Fed can't keep interest rates down forever. However, if the equities truly tank, the Fed might keep interest rates down longer than they planned. I'd probably move my money to bonds in a rebalancing act anyway, but might hedge my bets by confining myself to short term bonds. My methods are dependent on disciplined investing, rather than reacting to market forecasts, either for the bond market or the equity market. I remember that there was basically no safe haven during the last bust: bonds, stocks and real estate all moved down in tandem. And since then, they've all moved up. Certainly an appropriate asset allocation wouldn't remove the possibility of risk or of losses, but they might mitigate those things as you sell high and buy low for each asset class. The least complicated way I know of doing this is by maintaining an asset allocation appropriate for your risk tolerance.

As for rebalancing on a calendar schedule, I think it's fine. It's not optimal, but it works well enough over the long term. Remember, we'd already had a gain of about 16% in 2012. That should have been plenty of impetus to rebalance at the beginning of the year. You would have lost some of the gains we got early in the year, but you would also have reduced your risk. That's what having an asset allocation appropriate to your risk tolerance is all about: finding right risk/reward balance for yourself and then having the discipline to implement an asset allocation that supports it.


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 Post subject: Re: Market Fundamentals Plummetting Sell Off Extremely Likel
PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:48 am 

Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2011 7:25 am
Posts: 668
As an investor I must say again ..."who cares" so its a buying opportunity. Anyone who predicts, or tries to time the market is playing a fools game....


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