Hello friendly forum people
Understood, and good points. Anytime you put recommendations in print you can always look like a fool. Doug Kass has, HS Dent has, its very difficult to predict the market in stone long term especially when you can't make quick changes to your posts as developments occur. Vintek, lets talk about context though, you pulled up some other incorrect posts but why did you ignore my November post about stocks bottoming around 1340 then heading up to 1550? That was a fantastic posts and centers around my analysis of the S&P 500 (which is what I actually invest my clients in) You somehow missed that one on there?
Its right here: http://financeinlife.blogspot.com/2012/ ... -time.html
Didn't miss it. You'd already called it out the the other thread. I only called out what you neglected to. Context, m'boy, context.
And as far as the other posts about market tops go, its hard to reverse that once we find a renewed uptrend higher thats why the entire effort of making predictions is so difficult, of course you can look like a fool. We bought back in and rode that up to 1569 but we have since gone to cash. Every move of mine is not going to be entered on this forum. I called a 3% down day swing 2 hours before it happened that doesn't matter at all? All that matter is that the market did eventually resume a move higher again but you all just key on whatever part doesn't work.
No, it doesn't count. Not when the market recovered and went even higher in the succeeding days. You yourself have said that you don't time the market but go with the trends, trading every few months. So now you're telling me that even though you only trade every few month, 1 day is supposed to matter? Basically over the past month, it hasn't worked.
Anytime you even make a post on here to try to keep people from losing money, instead of people looking at it as help, its crucified.
And for good reason. It's wrong
. You were right in November. You were wrong about AAPL and GLD. And so far, you're wrong about the overall market. We're trying to keep people from hurting themselves by trading in and out because nobody can predict the market. So far, you're 1 for 4. And the time you've been right could just be randomness at work. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
You get a bunch of angry buy and holders that take value investing and warren buffet's investment approach completely out of context and somehow take incorrect predictions and use that as justification to buy and hold forever. Like that was the essence of value investing.
Show me that quote. It didn't come from me.
You all quote the same things over and over again on here but the bottom line is this, buy and hold investing will never outperform an approach of avoiding sell offs and/or shorting the market when clear set ups for downside sell offs present themself. Just go back to 2000 and calculate a true buy and hold approach, you would just be breaking even now.
Not if you were dollar cost averaging. I actually made the most money during the last 2 downturns because I was buying stocks on the cheap.
Also TRUE value investing is a full time job. Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor are like reading a college finance textbook. Using PE screening tools and book value per share indicators reading quarterly reports and truly following the tenants of value investing is incredibly time consuming. If you want to discuss timing Vintek, why is that never taken into account? Oh eventually stocks will get back to their all time highs, even if I lose 4-6 years of gains waiting for it to happen?
I'm not a advocate of value investing. I think you're mistaking me for Matthew Clinger. You are obviously confused.
The bottom line is this, the posts on here are not meant to offend you, they are posts I hope do help people. I am also always trying to get better at what I do, I won't always be right and posting on this site is like walking into a lion's den as a zebra. People are so quick to shoot you down.
And my bottom line is, you're not helping people It's fine if you want to be the zebra, but it's not a good thing when you try to drag others into the lion's den (the lions being the market, not us).
As far as I know, and I wish you the best if I am incorrect in your business endeavors, I am the only one on this thread actually managing millions of dollars of other people's money.
The may be true. But then again, there are several of us managing millions of dollars of our own
money. We didn't get there by following your advice. And since you're new in the business, it's pretty obvious that your clients didn't get there because of you either.
Also the the average hedge fund investment return for Quarter 1 2013 were posted on CNBC yesterday and my performance investment program (after all fees were taken) beat the average hedge fund return in the first quarter by 400%. So yes I wont always be right but these periodic posts do not encapsulate every investment move I make.
Then what's the point of your posts? If people here follow your advice, then it's incomplete advice.