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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:27 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
Here's the March 8th update.

Value of portfolio : 23639.76
After-taxed dividends : 201.105
Money left over initially : 4.85

Total worth : 23815.54925
Gain/Loss : +19.08%

VTI

Value : 22395.33
After-taxed dividends : 129.24675
Money left over initially : 13.65

Total Worth : 22538.22675
Gain/Loss : +12.69%


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:58 am 

Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:09 pm
Posts: 6
Quote:
Ticker Company 2012 11 07 Price
XRX Xerox Corp. 6.36
GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company 5.91
SUP Superior Industries International, Inc. 17.29
BAS Basic Energy Services, Inc. 9.47
CLD Cloud Peak Energy Inc. 19.62
AIZ Assurant Inc. 36.69
BRP Brookfield Residential Properties Inc. 17.1
PL Protective Life Corp. 25.75
PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. 55.39
RGA Reinsurance Group of America Inc. 52.03
SYA Symetra Financial Corporation 11.44
HUM Humana Inc. 70.16
WLP WellPoint Inc. 57.85


All the stocks are good for investors. I like SUP because of his unchangeable yield. Thanks for sharing great stock list.


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:05 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
Well, my picks change over time. Only 5 stocks on that list made in onto my latest (March) portfolio. SUP has been in my portfolios since the end of August, making it the 3rd oldest stock to remain in my picks. HUM has been there longer (Since May), but BRP has been there the longest (Since December 2011).


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 3:55 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
I know I've been away for a while, but I just thought I would come back and update this.

Here's the July 19th update.

Value of portfolio : 27337.10
After-taxed dividends : 265.3105
Money left over initially : 4.85

Total worth : 27607.2605
Gain/Loss : +38.04%

VTI

Value : 24420.87
After-taxed dividends : 320.75925
Money left over initially : 13.65

Total Worth : 24755.27925
Gain/Loss : +23.78%


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 4:51 pm 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
Vanguard Capital Value Fund 37.82%
Vanguard Capital Opportunity 34.61%

Does that mean that they do a better job than you? Or were they just lucky? If they were lucky, why wouldn't that hold true for you as well?


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:21 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
My numbers include the expense of buying the shares. Put your numbers down here and show the work. And the return on my portfolio of 38.04% is still slightly above yours. Of course, it takes no skill whatsoever to go find great performing funds after the fact. Why not choose something to compare it to at the start instead of searching around after for something to compare it to?


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 8:50 pm 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
You're missing the point. The managers of those funds can show you their opening prices as well. Why not just use them instead of following your advice?

By the way, you ducked the question. Is their superior performance over yours due to luck or skill? If it's luck, what makes you think you're not just lucky as well? If it's skill, then why not just take advantage of their skill and buy into their fund?


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:40 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
Superior performance? How? Both %s you quoted were lower gains than mine. Unless I suddenly forgot how to count, 38 is still higher than both 37 and 34, meaning that my portfolio has the superior performance in comparison to both of those funds.

Of course, if you're going to be fair about comparisons instead of just cherry picking in order to get the best results, you should make a full list of all the funds under the Vanguard name and show their returns over the same period of time. That you are ignoring VTI, an ETF under the Vanguard name AND a fund that was actually chosen at the start of this thread in order to make the other two Vanguard funds you picked look better is a bit disturbing. Basically, you have 1) hand-picked two funds to compare against mine after the fact, 2) removed from consideration a fund created by the very same company, which is also a fund that was actually chosen at the start of the thread, and 3) claimed 37.82% and 34.61% to be greater than 38.04% (which is definitely untrue).

I noted in a thread that you claim to be seen by many others as being great when it comes to investing.. but I have my doubts when you can't count up to 38.


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 5:26 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
I just copied the numbers from the post I made in your other portfolio thread. You know, the one where you came up with 29.36%. Why did that one do so much worse than this one? It can't be because you believe in the risk/reward relationship because you've been claiming to be able to eliminate risk. BTW, why didn't you respond to the same post on that thread? Besides, I have real money. Do you?

But heck, let's look at your number in a real-world context. Let's see...38% on zero dollars is...ummm...zero gain. And in the meantime, what was my gain? All I did was sit around and rebalance once. Let's just say six figures and call it a day. I'm pretty sure that I'm not the only one on this forum with similar results. Hey Matthew, how does it feel when a guy who can't count up to 38 makes more money investing than you do?

So let's see how you do after the 2nd year. Note that the 5-year records for the funds have a considerably lower annual percentage gain. I daresay that you'll do worse than them after 5 years because of the risk/reward ratio.

BTW, the pilot on that Asiana flight probably did really well on the simulator too.

Also, note that of the 2 funds I listed, the fund with the better record this year is outperformed by the other fund over a 10-year period. Higher performance is usually accompanied by higher volatility. This is evidence of that.

VHCOX 1-year: 34.61% 10-year: 11.20%
VHVLX 1-year: 37.82% 10-year: 8.63%


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:32 am 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
Why did one do so much worse than the other? Surely, you've got to be kidding me. One (this one) was created in November. The other was created in January. Meaning, you can't just copy the same numbers between the two threads and claim they are comparable to both. January's portfolio is below November's because one of them has been around for approximately 8 months, while the other has been around approximately 6 months. If you divide the return by the time elapsed, you will actually find that my January portfolio has gained *slightly* faster than my November portfolio.

You claim to be making 6 figures, but that's just a claim. Anyone can spout lies about how much they have.

And your statistic is worthless. It is only indicative of how two funds compare against each other, not how the market performs as a whole.

For instance, from December 31, 1967 to December 31, 2009 (concerning companies worth 200 million+ in 2009 dollars) the information technologies sector had more than twice the standard deviation than the utilities sector. At the same time, the utilities sector's return was more than 50% greater than the information technology sector.

That's more than 40 YEARS of data that went into those two above statistics and they covered whole sectors! It's a much more proper statistic than comparing two single tickers together and making a judgment on the whole market because of them.

And actually, I do have one person who is so pleased with a portfolio I made for her, which is up nearly 50% (costs were included in the calculation, but not dividends.. with dividends, over 50%) that I am being gifted with 10% of what she made when she sells it.

Vintek, the only way you'll have been getting 6 figures from investments this year is if you went out and invested in buying a few sets of Monopoly. Because it sure isn't real money.

I'd suppose my December 1st portfolio(based on Nov 30th's closing prices) of this last year would be as close to a consecutive year of this as possible, considering the first portfolio I made using a system I made off of was based on December 2nd, 2011 data. That first portfolio simulated at 59.98% without costs or dividends factored in. Of course, it completely decimated the various comparisons I used.

In comparing my current December portfolio to the 5 comparisons I have it running against (the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, the NYSE Composite, the S&P 500, and VTI), the best-performing of those 5 according to the Google chart is doing 8 whole percentage points worse than my portfolio. So far my second year is going rather well. Against the worst of the five, it is simulating more than 11 whole percentage points better. If the worst performing stock among the 15 in that portfolio were completely wiped out and made worthless, it would still have more value than those five comparisons (currently). Well, there's less than 4 1/2 months until that portfolio closes, so let's see how it ends up this December.


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:40 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
Matthew Clinger wrote:
And your statistic is worthless. It is only indicative of how two funds compare against each other, not how the market performs as a whole.

Actually, it's illustrative that short-term performance doesn't equate to similar long-term performance. You've got nothing but short-term performance in your record.

Matthew Clinger wrote:
For instance, from December 31, 1967 to December 31, 2009 (concerning companies worth 200 million+ in 2009 dollars) the information technologies sector had more than twice the standard deviation than the utilities sector. At the same time, the utilities sector's return was more than 50% greater than the information technology sector.

And now you're the one cherry-picking the history of past sectors in the manner of you accusing me cherry-picking past funds.

Matthew Clinger wrote:
And actually, I do have one person who is so pleased with a portfolio I made for her, which is up nearly 50% (costs were included in the calculation, but not dividends.. with dividends, over 50%) that I am being gifted with 10% of what she made when she sells it.

Pity you can't do it for yourself. And since you accuse me of fabricating my numbers, who's to say you aren't fabricating your client? Care to toss out how much your 10% is worth? I don't know about you, but I pay my bills with dollars, not percentages.

Matthew Clinger wrote:
Vintek, the only way you'll have been getting 6 figures from investments this year is if you went out and invested in buying a few sets of Monopoly. Because it sure isn't real money.

Nope. If you read through the history of this forum, you'll see that several of us have six-figure incomes today (from our jobs) and have been investing for decades. While we didn't always have six-figure incomes to throw at the market, we were blessed to have been fortunate enough to be investing during all or part of the greatest bull market in history. There are a number of us with seven-figure portfolios. Given that, a 6-figure gain in one year isn't implausible. In fact, unless that portfolio is particularly conservative, it would have been hard not to make six-figures over the past year with a portfolio that size. I suspect that those of us in this forum who made this kind of money in the past year are snickering at you because gains like that are so far out of your reality that you don't believe they can exist for ordinary working folks. Anyway, my point was not to toss the numbers at you but to demonstrate that when you have nothing, it doesn't matter how well your fictional portfolio does, especially over the short term. When you do have money, it's easy to make more in a bull market.

Matthew Clinger wrote:
I'd suppose my December 1st portfolio(based on Nov 30th's closing prices) of this last year would be as close to a consecutive year of this as possible, considering the first portfolio I made using a system I made off of was based on December 2nd, 2011 data. That first portfolio simulated at 59.98% without costs or dividends factored in. Of course, it completely decimated the various comparisons I used.

In comparing my current December portfolio to the 5 comparisons I have it running against (the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, the NYSE Composite, the S&P 500, and VTI), the best-performing of those 5 according to the Google chart is doing 8 whole percentage points worse than my portfolio. So far my second year is going rather well. Against the worst of the five, it is simulating more than 11 whole percentage points better. If the worst performing stock among the 15 in that portfolio were completely wiped out and made worthless, it would still have more value than those five comparisons (currently). Well, there's less than 4 1/2 months until that portfolio closes, so let's see how it ends up this December.

You're missing (and continue to miss) the point. There are lots of funds that have had spectacular 1-year or even 3-year returns. In the long term, they all came crashing down. You keep focusing on the short term because that's all you've got. Keep coming back. I'm really interested in how your funds do by the time they're old enough to go to kindergarten.

Say, with a record like that, why don't you just borrow $100K and invest it? You can pay it back in no time! What? No one trusts you enough to lend you that kind of money? Gee, I can't imagine why that would be.


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:21 am 
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Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:01 am
Posts: 5398
VinTek wrote:
Matthew Clinger wrote:
Vintek, the only way you'll have been getting 6 figures from investments this year is if you went out and invested in buying a few sets of Monopoly. Because it sure isn't real money.

Nope. If you read through the history of this forum, you'll see that several of us have six-figure incomes today (from our jobs) and have been investing for decades. While we didn't always have six-figure incomes to throw at the market, we were blessed to have been fortunate enough to be investing during all or part of the greatest bull market in history. There are a number of us with seven-figure portfolios. Given that, a 6-figure gain in one year isn't implausible. In fact, unless that portfolio is particularly conservative, it would have been hard not to make six-figures over the past year with a portfolio that size. I suspect that those of us in this forum who made this kind of money in the past year are snickering at you because gains like that are so far out of your reality that you don't believe they can exist for ordinary working folks.


Yes, snickering. I am up 6 figures year-to-date. And percentage-wise I have underperformed a little. If you have 7 figs, it only takes a 10% return to make 6. With the market up around 30% in the last year, starting with "as little as $350k" would do it. MANY people on here have that.


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:31 am 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
DoingHomework wrote:
VinTek wrote:
I suspect that those of us in this forum who made this kind of money in the past year are snickering at you because gains like that are so far out of your reality that you don't believe they can exist for ordinary working folks.


Yes, snickering. I am up 6 figures year-to-date. And percentage-wise I have underperformed a little. If you have 7 figs, it only takes a 10% return to make 6. With the market up around 30% in the last year, starting with "as little as $350k" would do it. MANY people on here have that.

Yeah, I'm underperforming a bit too. My international allocation is what's holding me back, but I have to stay within my asset allocation targets. After all, I'm ostensibly buying those international shares cheaper than the US shares. Overall though, I have no complaints.


Last edited by VinTek on Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:48 pm 

Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 pm
Posts: 1952
So Matthew, what about http://online.wsj.com/fund/page/fund_snapshot.html?symbol=LGOAX? Up 41.03% YTD, up 74.71% for the full year on this date. Why would anyone invest with you instead of them?


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 Post subject: Re: Stock Portfolio
PostPosted: Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:27 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:21 am
Posts: 149
Just giving a final update here. I do not feel compelled to go into the full details here, as this was not a close match. In short, my portfolio clearly won, so I feel no need to go counting all the dividends.

Ticker 2012 11 08 Opening Price Stocks bought Value 2013 11 08 Closing Price Value % Change
AIZ 36.69 42 1540.98 59.84 2,513.28 63.10%
BAS 9.5 162 1539.00 16.67 2,700.54 75.47%
BRP 17.2 89 1530.80 20.16 1,794.24 17.21%
CLD 19.65 78 1532.70 16.24 1,266.72 -17.35%
GPK 5.93 259 1535.87 8.27 2,141.93 39.46%
HUM 70.17 22 1543.74 95.19 2,094.18 35.66%
PL 25.75 59 1519.25 46.64 2,751.76 81.13%
PRU 54.35 28 1521.80 86.90 2,433.20 59.89%
RGA 51.89 29 1504.81 71.25 2,066.25 37.31%
SUP 17.31 88 1523.28 18.80 1,654.40 8.61%
SYA 11.45 134 1534.30 18.41 2,466.94 60.79%
WLP 57.85 26 1504.10 87.28 2,269.28 50.87%
XRX 6.37 241 1535.17 10.30 2,482.30 61.70%

Total Value 19865.80 28,635.02 44.14%

As you can see, my record was 12 winners, 1 loser. 6 of these winners showed 50%+ gains based on price appreciation alone.

2012 11 08 # Value 2013 11 08 Value
71.6 279 19976.4 91.89 25637.31 28.34%

These results don't show leftover cash, dividends, or the cost of selling off.. But let's be honest here. There is no way that any combination of those would lead to a VTI victory here, being 15.8% behind in price appreciation. Even if we go to the $20,000 as the basis for gain, my stocks show a 43.175% gain, compared to a 28.186% gain from VTI, a difference of 14.989%. Based on this, my portfolio was 34.7% more profitable than VTI (not including dividends and selling expenses). I would also like to point out that, individually, 10 of my 13 picks were more profitable than VTI.


Last edited by Matthew Clinger on Mon Dec 02, 2013 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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