While poking around on the Society of Actuaries website — come on, I’m a nerd! — I found their Longevity Illustrator, a tool for estimating your expected lifespan.
The Longevity Illustrator asks for only a bare minimum of information: your age, your gender, your health, and whether you smoke. Given that info, it generates the statistical probability that you’ll live to any particular age.
Why only these four factors? The website explains:
Longevity depends on many factors, such as lifestyle and genetics. However, these four pieces of information have been shown to produce reasonable approximations of an individual’s longevity.
In other words, there are certainly other factors that affect longevity but these four are enough to get a good approximation. As for me, statistically I have another 37 years left on this earth! I have a 50% chance of living until I’m 86.
Earlier this year, I wrote that life expectancy is the most important variable in retirement planning. In that article, I shared three other great longevity calculators: the Abaris How Long Will I Live? calculator, the Living to 100 life expectancy calculator, and the John Hancock life expectancy calculator. (These tools estimate I’ll live until 86, 82, and 81, respectively.)