Average stock returns over next 50 years

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alwaysonit
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:39 pm

Of course we can't predict this, but what would be a conservative guess, after inflation?
Buffet says 6-7%, is this after inflation?
Another, and probably too conservative estimate, could be that with international equity risk premium being 4% and bonds paying close to nothing now, the inflation adjusted return will be 2-3%.
What do you guys think?
DoingHomework
Moderator
Posts: 5600
Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:01 am

Average annual return of the stock market: 5-6% over inflation.
Inflation: 2%
Average annual return of the stock market: 7-8%
Average return of individual investors will be less because most will sell when the market tanks 25% which will occasionally happen in the next 30 years
DJFlare99
Posts: 111
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 3:01 pm

I think the average stock market return will be 6-7% of nominal return, so the real return is 4-5%. That's what I use in my financial projections. Now if they match historic returns of 9%, even better.
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