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 Post subject: Q1 2009 sectors to invest in?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 11:51 am 
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I'm still hoping my speculative investment that I made 2 and a half weeks ago will pay off by the middle of January, so I'm in the education process now of where I'd like to make another semi-speculative investment in Q1 2009. Ideally I'm looking for short term (8-12 weeks) of 15% or more, but everything seems really muddy.

Looking into the razor thin margins that are the Grocery sector but am kind of scared off by the rising price of some goods like flour and rice.

So - what's everyone looking at for the new year? Not really looking for specific companies (but am open to suggestions) but moreso the sectors that might actually have a chance of growth.

I also haven't ruled out the idea of mutal fund or index of stocks, but again looking for fairly agressive and short-term growth potential.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:25 pm 

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Ok, just so we are clear that this is entirely speculative....

I believe the price of crude oil is too low at this point, and is poised to increase in the near future. I mean will OPEC seriously allow us to have sub-$50 barrels for long? They might be humoring us for now due to our weakened state, but I really doubt that they'll keep it up for long.

I also believe that the Dollar is over-valued at this point. We've already racked up a huge budget deficit, and it's slated to go up even more with Obama's albeit much-needed stimulus programs. And yet, the Dollar surges against the Euro (but not the Yen). Again, I don't think current levels are sustainable.

I also believe that the basic materials sector could rebound huge too, but I don't know if such a thing will actually happen in 2009. But that's an important indicator to watch out for when the market finally rebounds.

Of course, there's also the housing market, though I too doubt it rebounding by next year.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:21 pm 
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I am looking at next year the upscale grocery market. I think its a good bet that when the economy starts upticking again, that the upscale markets (say, Whole Foods) post better numbers.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:09 pm 
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Ya know, I was looking at Whole Foods today while on my lunch break at work. I got there because I was sitting there thinking about what people do with their money when times are tuff. Everyone eats, we kind of have to, and while we may cut down on eating out, we all still go shopping for groceries. Then I started to think about a friend of mine who owns a Vegan bakery (vegantreats.com), very specialized but with a cult-like following (delivers weekly to coffee shops and restaurants in NYC, Philly and no DC too) with almost no marketing. This summer when gas was $4 / gallon and people were complaining about not being able to afford vacations, said friend and I were talking, it was this conversation I started to reflect on.

I said something to the effect that, while her deserts are spendy and enjoyed by vegan and non-vegans alike (seriously, try the peanut butter bomb if you can), people seem to never stop coming in her bakery and her wholesale accounts actually grew, both in volume of orders and total number of accounts... it was then that it dawned on me that consumers were indulging in these tasty treats, at a serious premium to any other bakery or grocery store-bought item, on a more regular basis, in lieu of going on vacation.

Now I realize if someone's vacation budget is typically $2500 and higher gas costs lopped that in half, they won't spend $1250 on baked goods, but they would perhaps spend $250 over a period of 8-10 weeks of the summer going once a week to indulge themselves.

The higher end food market, whole foods included, seems to somewhat fit into a similar philosophy. Everyone knows they are far from the cheapest place on the block, but with the spike in healthy, premium grade foods that consumer seem to want, regardless of a 10-30% price increase over the other stores, maybe the cut-throat, razor-thin margins that make-up higher end groceries would make a solid investment.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:38 am 

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Tobacco stocks,,,when times are bad and people are stressed ,they smoke.

Couple are MO and VGR


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2008 9:47 am 

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I also speculate that, rather than "learning their lesson", many consumers feel that they are currently being "forced" to put off a lot of consumer goods and items that they've been eyeing for quite some time. And when the economy finally stabilizes, especially if and when the jobless rates drop, then many of them are going to come out of the wood work and treat themselves to something nice for "having been such a good, frugal boy or girl".

In other words, there could be a brief backlash against frugality with a small buying binge coming. IF so, the retail sector would be a great bet.

Even if this is true, will it happen by 2009?


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:51 pm 
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solar

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:46 am 

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ekrabs wrote:
Ok, just so we are clear that this is entirely speculative....

I believe the price of crude oil is too low at this point, and is poised to increase in the near future. I mean will OPEC seriously allow us to have sub-$50 barrels for long? They might be humoring us for now due to our weakened state, but I really doubt that they'll keep it up for long.

I also believe that the Dollar is over-valued at this point. We've already racked up a huge budget deficit, and it's slated to go up even more with Obama's albeit much-needed stimulus programs. And yet, the Dollar surges against the Euro (but not the Yen). Again, I don't think current levels are sustainable.

I also believe that the basic materials sector could rebound huge too, but I don't know if such a thing will actually happen in 2009. But that's an important indicator to watch out for when the market finally rebounds.

Of course, there's also the housing market, though I too doubt it rebounding by next year.



OPEC members cheat. A LOT!!! They really have no control over the price of oil. If they did, there would be no reason why would be sitting at $33/barrel for the January month -- The Feb month is higher, something like $44, but you get my point. I've read in various places that oil would have to get down to
$25/barrel for OPEC countries to actually stop producing.

I also love me the tobacco stocks... But they aren't exactly speculative. If you want speculative... Look into ANGO -- Angiodynamics.. They've got some very interesting technologies and are actually a pretty profitable biotech company.

Disclosure: In no way shape or form am I recommending you invest in any of the aforementioned equities. You should do your own due diligence before you take anyone's advice. I don't really even trust myself.....


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 8:35 am 
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I can't tell you what would earn you 15% very quickly, but I too think oil is "too cheap" right now. I think over the long term it is bound to go up. An ETF like OIL or individual investments in oil stocks would be a solid long term play.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 8:36 am 
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Night Runner wrote:
solar


Which stocks? Speculation has already hit most of these.

I haven't done any research, but Steel, Concrete, and munis are the places I'd start. Some tech stocks, like storage companies. EMC, NTAP. They seem to be undervalued relative to their 12 months highs. I know EMC owns VMware, and they seem to be poised to continue bringing in profits. God knows if there is one thing companies can't do without, it's places to store data.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 11:24 am 
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dtr wrote:
Night Runner wrote:
solar


Which stocks? Speculation has already hit most of these.

I haven't done any research, but Steel, Concrete, and munis are the places I'd start. Some tech stocks, like storage companies. EMC, NTAP. They seem to be undervalued relative to their 12 months highs. I know EMC owns VMware, and they seem to be poised to continue bringing in profits. God knows if there is one thing companies can't do without, it's places to store data.


It is true that the solar bubble has burst. That means that the surviving companies are on sale. :lol: Obama's new administration is very likely to encourage the development of renewable energy sources, which includes solar power. It may resemble the German model. There will be quite a bit of growth in the entire solar sector relatively soon - especially after the inauguration and/or his first State of the Union address, in which he's likely to mention solar energy.

As for the specific pick, my money is on STP. The stock doubled in the past month, and has a lot more potential.

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 Post subject: Re: Q1 2009 sectors to invest in?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:16 am 
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Looking back at this, I wish I would have taken my own advice. :)

NTAP was trading around 12-13 bucks. It peaked @ $60 in 2010. Trades over $30 now.
EMC was trading around $10. It peaked around $30. Trades in mid-20's now.

FSLR was trading around $120, and got up to nearly $200 in 2009, but has been steadily down since. Trading around $22 today. As I said in Dec 2008, Solar was already near peak pricing.

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