Note: Although I try to keep GRS a politics-free zone, today’s topic is inherently political. I’ve stayed as neutral as possible in the article, but I know that there’ll be some political discussion in the comments. Please keep conversation civil, as always.
Recently at The Simple Dollar, Trent posed the question, “How much do taxes matter to you?” As might be expected, his readers responded with passionate comments from both sides of the political spectrum. The discussion frustrated me, though. There’s just too much misinformation, and people offer their opinions as if they were facts.
I’m as guilty as anyone else.
Because my own education on this subject is weak, and because I want GRS readers to be informed, I spent twelve hours last week researching a variety of tax topics. From this research, I’ve written two articles: this one about the U.S. budget, and a second part about taxes, which I’ll publish next week.
These posts are meant simply to be educational. There’s no takeaway other than knowledge. We cannot have informed discussions about taxes and government spending if we don’t have the baseline information. These two articles record my attempts to discover that baseline information.
To begin our discussion of taxes, let’s examine the state of the U.S. budget.
The U.S. Budget
The U.S. budget is complex, and it’s the source of much political debate. Some argue that we should cut our military spending and use the money to fund a national health care system. Others argue that nationalized health care is the road to socialism, and that we should reduce our current government health programs. Others simply want to cut all government spending. But how much is actually spent where?
The U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) provides a website devoted to the budget of the United States government. You can download the entire budget in PDF form (~2mb file), or browse only for the sections that interest you. There are a variety of supplementary materials available, too.
All of this information is overwhelming. To make the numbers easier to understand, Jess Bachman produces an annual Death and Taxes poster, which attempts to visualize the entirety of the federal budget. The poster contains over 500 programs and departments. The size of each item on the poster is proportional its budgeted amount.
The Death and Taxes page allows you to zoom around and look at sections of the poster from within your web browser. There’s even a “quick find” feature that allows users to look up the sections that interest them.
From the “Death and Taxes” poster, here’s a glimpse of the total U.S. national budget:
Even though this image simplifies things, it still took me a couple of minutes to understand it. The penny in the middle represents receipts — from taxes and other sources. The big black chunk missing from the penny is the budget deficit. The government has to borrow this money to stay afloat. The colored circles around the outside edge represent where the government is spending money. Again, the area of each circle is proportional to the expense. (I have no idea why the equation [Outlays = Receipts + Deficit] doesn’t balance. Can someone explain?)
Looking over the budget, here are some datapoints that interested me:
- The Department of Defense has a budget of $534 Billion, which is 37.5% of the overall $1421 Billion discretionary budget. (What does “discretionary budget” mean? See the next section of this article.)
- I’ve always thought the Department of Homeland Security was a sort of boondoggle. Looking at its $41.383 Billion budget, however, I see that it was basically created by shuffling agencies from other departments. Customs and the Coast Guard are a part of Homeland Security now, for example.
- The Department of the Interior, which is home to programs like the National Park Service, etc., has a budget of only $12.007 Billion. That seems really low compared to some other parts of the budget.
- NASA’s budget seems low, too. Is $18.686 Billion per year really going to provide a manned mission to Mars in my lifetime? We’ll need to raise that budget if this geek is going to have a chance of dying happy. (I can dream, can’t I?)
- The United States Postal Service has outlays of $78 Billion, most of which are covered by fees. About 5% ($3.776 Billion) of the agency’s budget comes from tax dollars. This is much less than I would have guessed.
- The Department of Education has a $46.69 Billion budget. Of this, $29.64 Billion (63.4%) is for Special Education and Education for the Disadvantaged.
- The Financial Literacy and Education Commission (which falls under the auspices of the U.S. Treasury) is far, far too small to be listed here.
If looking at the budget poster online is overwhelming, you can scan the spending on various departments in this data-only list of budget spending (it’s just a blog post, so it’s not too daunting).
As someone who has served on a small-town budget committee, I guarantee you that each of these government organizations — both the ones you support and the ones you don’t — can provide rationalization for every penny they receive. In fact, they probably wish they had more money to work with.
But as a taxpayer, I wish I had more money to work with, too.
There’s a balance to be found here. And it’s arguments over this balance that create divisions among our political parties and lead to tirades about taxes.
Discretionary Spending
You may have noticed that the U.S. budget is divided into discretionary spending and non-discretionary spending. What’s the difference? In my personal budget, non-discretionary spending (or mandatory spending) includes things like the mortgage and utilities and essential food. Discretionary spending includes videogames and comic books and restaurant meals. But what does it mean for the government?
- Mandatory spending (or “direct spending”) is required by law. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs (such as Unemployment Compensation, Food Stamps, Student Loans, etc.) are mandated by law. Our elected officials must change the laws before they can change spending on these items. These programs are sometimes referred to as “entitlements”. If you meet the requirements for a particular program, you’re entitled to receive benefits.
- Each year, as a part of the budgeting process, the President and Congress negotiate discretionary spending. Whereas entitlement programs are ongoing, most discretionary expenses require annual renewal. Requests for discretionary spending are made via an annual appropriation bill, which authorizes the government to spend money. Discretionary spending covers programs like the U.S. Forest Service, the Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Peace Corps — and the military.
Using data from the Congressional Budget Office, I was able to create a graph that shows that discretionary spending as a percentage of the U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) peaked in 1982, and then fell under Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Clinton. It jumped under President George W. Bush:

The Congressional Budget Office data breaks discretionary spending down further. In this chart, I’ve retained the mandatory spending line, but split discretionary spending into three categories: defense spending, domestic spending, and international spending. Again, these numbers are graphed as a percentage of GDP:

Both defense and domestic spending increased under President Bush. I suspect they’ll both increase under President Obama, as well. How much of this is due to each man’s political philosophy? How much is due to the political and economic exigencies of their time? I don’t know.
“That’s great,” my wife said when I showed her these charts. “But what about total spending. You need a chart for that.” Right. Here’s some info about all government spending (including state, local, and federal). What we want, though, is this data from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.
Here are total U.S. government budget outlays as a percentage of GDP over the past 80 years:

To me, it looks like President Clinton is the only one to systematically reduce spending.
But as several commenters have noted, there are other factors to the 1990s reduction.
Despite fiery rhetoric from both sides, no one political party can honestly claim to be anti-spending. I think that most of us understand that some government spending is necessary — we just worry about the degree of spending that occurs.
It’s a fine thing that citizens want to keep government spending in check, but it’s important to note that just because you don’t want or need a program doesn’t mean that there aren’t other citizens who want or need it. (I was raised in a “peace church”, for example, and so am naturally opposed to military spending. Yet I recognize that for most U.S. citizens, this is a high priority. I’ve learned to temper my upbringing with the knowledge that mine is not the majority opinion.)
Although this is a long article, it provides only a cursory glimpse of the U.S. budget. It doesn’t even begin to touch the subject of where this money comes from! Tune in next week for the second half of my research, in which I try to uncover the truth about taxes.
Postscript: Here’s a new New York Times editorial from Warren Buffett, in which he writes that recent deficit spending was justified to save the economy, but cautions that government needs to be prepared to pull back on spending or risk making things even worse. In order to ward off inflation, Buffett says, “Once recovery is gained…Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources.”
Update #1: Several people have requested info about the relationship between national debt and GDP. In the comments, Joshua points to this national debt graph. He also suggests cross-referencing these graphs with info on party divisions of the U.S. Congress.
Update #2: I amended my Bill Clinton statement. As several commenters have noted, there are other factors to the spending decline during the 1990s, including an expanding economy and a Republican-controlled legislative branch. Also, Ginger-Kathleen sent e-mail asking about government salaries. The President makes $400,000 per year and has a huge expense account. Members of both houses receive $174,000 per year.
Graphs courtesy of me. Images courtesy of Jess Bachman, creator of the Death and Taxes poster. Bachman is generously offering a deal for GRS readers. Order two or more posters and get 50% off when you use the code ’slowly’ at checkout. “It’s basically buy-one, get-one-free,” Bachman says. Thanks, Jess!
This article is about Economics, Taxes Monday, 24th August 2009 (by J.D. Roth)


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August 24th, 2009 at 5:22 am
That poster is an excellent resource. I knew our deficit was huge and it worried me, but I didn’t know it was that huge. Looking over all of the other little budget circles, I’m visualizing that chunk missing, that chunk that we don’t have enough to pay for.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:25 am
Am I the only one that can’t see the graphs? Since the new format I can’t see a lot of the pictures in the blog… I’m really curious about the tax article.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:26 am
I find my own little city’s budget to be more interesting because I can see (or not see) how the money is spent. The money I pay in taxes to my city, county and other local taxing authorities (i.e. health care district, water, etc.) provides the police, fire, road, sidewalk repair, parks upkeep, the local library etc.
Here in Florida we just received our initial tax estimates and while values have gone down the city and county are increasing millage rates to try and collect the same amount in taxes. So while values are down, people’s pay is down, taxes will likely remain flat. I think the city and county got used to the real estate bubble and undertook contracts with the unions and other projects that are now too expensive but the city/county doesn’t want to cut or doesn’t believe they can cut.
I have to live within my means but the government can keep increasing taxes, not fair in my mind.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:54 am
This is really an excellent and informative article. I appreciate its neutrality and educational tone. In a time of a lot of political “static” that makes real data hard to secure, this is invaluable.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:01 am
Very interesting post on government spending - I hope some enterprising Canadian blogger does the same for Canada (too much work for me).
One point about spending as a percent of GDP - the GDP is not constant, it goes up in good times and falls in recession. Spending tends to be more constant so you will often have an increase in spending as a % of GDP during a recession even though the actual spending hasn’t changed (or might have gone down).
This is shown most clearly in the “Budget outlays as percentage of GDP” chart for the early 30s when the GDP went way down. The chart goes up in 2008, 2009 but that reflects a smaller GDP as well as more spending.
The early 40s has a large spike which I assume is from increased wartime spending.
I think that if you want to compare spending patterns for various regimes then you should look at actual spending amounts adjusted for inflation and population changes.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:05 am
JD,
This is an excellent presentation on a complex subject.
If this doesn’t can used in high school econmics classes, it will be a shame.
The national budget and how taxes are calculated are two things I think Americans must understand to be a financially productive citizen.
Well done.
Erik
August 24th, 2009 at 6:05 am
Thanks J.D.
This is a lot of great information that isn’t always easy to find. I’m not sure that Bill Clinton actually reduced spending, though. GDP zoomed under Clinton. I think he just didn’t increase spending as fast as the tax receipts increased. As for me, I could very easily wave goodbye to NASA without shedding a tear. I think people get so incensed over taxes because they have different beliefs about what a government should be. I have somewhat libertarian leanings. Military spending is one of the few areas I feel the government should be responsible for. Many of the other areas on the budget should be the responsibility of local governments, industry, individuals, families, and charitable groups. If the government were run this way, taxes would be pretty low. Of course, the libertarian presidential candidates usually only garner 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, so maybe not everybody sees things my way (-:
August 24th, 2009 at 6:21 am
I fall closest in line with the “cut all spending” mentality though there’s a few areas in which I’m ok with moderate government spending. I do find it interesting that our military is our highest expenditure. I’m all for having a strong military defense but I’d love to see more funding for things like science and medicine and less for military.
I think things like health care, national forests, and even education could be handled better as private institutions with government oversight rather than being directly managed by the government. More along the lines of the FDA. They make sure that proper procedures are being followed but otherwise allow business to be run as normal.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:26 am
This is just nitpicks about JD’s charts, which are mostly fantastic.
I might do the following:
1. Get rid of the horizontal grid lines. The actual numbers on that axis aren’t important, just the direction.
2. Get rid of the years and add on Presidents instead. Put very faint horizontal grid lines for Presidents. This would pull out any differences caused by the President.
3. Currently, you use the same color for “Defense” as “Mandatory Spending”. I’d change that.
Other than that, great charts.
… Sorry for the nitpicks, I’m a professional analytics trainer.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:31 am
Excellant job JD. I would echo four Pillars comments.
Studying our federal budget is a real eye opener. I was a no question proponent of gov’t health care until I learned that half of all gov’t spending is non-discretionary spending…and as our population ages, this is expected to increase dramatically. Cutting discretionary spending is not enough to overcome these increases. I’m not sure what the solution is but it is clear that some change is in order.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:03 am
@Lara (#7)
I know that most people could wave good-bye to NASA without shedding a tear. But I’m a geek, and a science-fiction geek at that. Space exploration goes to the heart of my being. It’s an irrational thing, maybe, but it’s something I support.
Anyhow, thanks to you and Tracy and Four Pillars for suggesting that spending as a percentage of GDP may not be the best way to graph budget-related topics. All of the government data, and most of the non-government data (some of which I use in next week’s tax post) is provided in GDP-relative format, so that’s what I use. I don’t recall seeing inflation-adjusted real numbers (though it’s possible they were there). GDP-relative seemed like a reasonable measure, and the data was there, so I used it. I can understand how it might be useful to have other views as well, though.
Thanks for the great comments so far!
August 24th, 2009 at 7:12 am
I’m with Lara. I think many things are important, but I don’t take it the step further to think that the federal government should be responsible for funding. I think retirement is important, but I disagree with Social Security. I think education is important but the Department of Education is a joke. What has the Department of Energy done that couldn’t be done in industry or under Department of Defense?
Wise Money Matters said science and medicine are important and I agree, but I DON’T THINK THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE PROVIDING THE FUNDING. Science and Medicine advance too fast for the government to be responsive, and government funding systems don’t encourage innovation (in fact many times they discourage it because if you solve the problem your funding dries up) nor are they efficient. I want scientists, engineers, and doctors deciding where money goes rather than politicians.
I would also like to point out the very common misconception that you perpetuate in this post: THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT WRITE THE BUDGET. The House of Representatives holds the purse strings. The president is a nice figurehead that acts as a lightning rod for both good and bad spending. The president approves or vetoes the budget just like other bills, but he can only give his YES/NO to what is offered by Congress. Remember the government shut down under Clinton as well? That was a standoff because Congress wasn’t giving him the budget he wanted. I agree that both major parties have spending problems, but credit the right parties with the right actions.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:26 am
You can find the data on tabel S-3 of the following document.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2010/assets/summary.pdf
August 24th, 2009 at 7:28 am
I think citizens are taxed enough, our politicians should “make do” with what we send them. This of course means that before we enact any further spending, we need to make massive cuts. I am frustrated when I hear politicians and pundits claim that increased revennue (more taxes!) is a foregone conclusion. Why can’t they just figure out how to prioritize all of our programs and live with just the programs that we can afford, and cut the rest? If we need government-provided healthcare, and it’s a higher priority item that other current budget programs, then make the necessary cuts to pay for it.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:33 am
I am really impressed with this article! You addressed truth in a plain common sense way without stepping on the toes of any political party.
Could you do some looking in to monetary policy as well? Right now my understanding is that the US government pays the Federal Reserve (which is more private than federal) with bonds. The bonds raise in value over time while the dollar decreases in value, this creates a debt that could not be paid off with every US form of money from around the world. To my knowledge the only president that has ever eliminated the debt was Andrew Jackson who also got rid of central banking. I know this could be a lot of work, but I can think of a lot of people that would benefit from learning whats true and whats myth on monetary policy.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:33 am
Kris, Not seeing the pictures might be a setting in your browser, you might want to uninstall and re-install or check your security settings. I actually do website testing and I checked this page and the graphs work on both Mac and Win for firefox, internet explorer, safari, and chrome.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:37 am
Thanks for a very informative post. I have also researched this in the past and been too frustrated to sort through it all, so thanks for doing that.
I would be very curious to also see a graph of the deficit’s percentage of GDP over the years, since there is so much discussion of us “not paying for what we’re spending.” (That is not a new phenomenon.)
Like you, I think some things are more worth it than others in the budget, but that’s the curse, and blessing, of living in a civilized society. People act like the big bad government is some entity out THERE, but the reality is we live in a democracy where we elect those who represent us, and even though majority rule sometimes sucks, it beats the alternative!
August 24th, 2009 at 7:39 am
@Jess
Say what? I guess on some level I knew the government borrowed against Social Security, but I never understood what that meant before. In a personal finance context, that’s like borrowing against your Roth IRA in order to fund your current year’s spending. I DON’T LIKE THIS.
@Kris (#2)
For esoteric reasons, images are no longer stored on the GRS server. They’re stored on the server for my personal site. I’m willing to bet that for whatever reason, your browser is blocking stuff from foldedspace.org. In order to see images, let foldedspace.org through.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:39 am
Now, for fun, go through that giant poster and try to identify all the expenditures that are actually authorized by the Constitution in the specific enumerated list of Congress’ powers in Article 1, Section 8.
After all, “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” Right?
August 24th, 2009 at 7:41 am
Perhaps the largest challenge that this data represents is its enormous complexity combined with the lack of communication with the public at large, which creates desensitization and complacency.
In other words, most people pause for just a moment then shrug off the projections for $9 trillion deficits over the next ten years. “What’s another one or two trillion? Oh well, on to my cup of coffee…”
We are all guilty — not just politicians — of not learning and/or communicating the ramifications of our budgeting decisions. The internal dialogue is something like this: “If it doesn’t harm me directly, I can pass the problem on to someone else; therefore, the size of the problem is not my problem.”
Thanks to JD for at least communicating the challenges…
“One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.” ~ Plato
August 24th, 2009 at 7:43 am
Thanks for this great post, JD.
I’ve been trying to understand the state of U.S. finances. My gut says that spending more than we have is self-destructive–even for a big country. I’m looking for facts.
I came upon I.O.U.S.A., a really interesting non-partisan documentary that I got from Netflix. This is not the first time in history that the U.S. has had a huge debt. It is the first time that the U.S. government has borrowed from foreigners instead of its own people. You can see a free abbreviated version at http://www.iousathemovie.com.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:46 am
To extend a bit upon what Shara said (comment #12)… regarding spending under Clinton (or any other president), we must remember that it’s the legislative branch that controls spending. In the mid 90s, the Contact with America (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_with_America) played a major role in the budget process during the latter half of Clinton’s presidency — a time when we actually had federal budget surpluses. Those were the days.
While the president does influence spending, ultimately, all spending bills originate in Congress. And when Congress is controlled by the competing political party, the president’s budget aspirations may not be entirely met. For this reason, the article “National debt by U.S. presidential terms” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms) doesn’t tell the full story.
P.S. The govt. shutdown under Clinton was a good thing.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:46 am
@Rob 14 - the reason that programs can’t be prioritized is because the federal budget has to be passed by the Senate, the House, and the President’s office. Each of these groups (and each member within each group) has different priorities. If at any point there is less than a clear necessary majority, it goes back to the drawing board.
Our congressmen almost never agree on what is ‘not important’, because our citizens almost never agree. So the budget grows, because it is easier to add programs and deficit spending than it is to cut programs that someone likes. Hell, I don’t need a missile defense system in Alaska, but someone thinks they do, so we have one. Shara @12 doesn’t think we need Social Security, but most people receiving it think we do, so it continues to exist. Same for every dollar on the chart.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:48 am
JD, Thanks for this post. I did a lot of research on this during the election as well. I also like this chart:
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
Coupled with this data:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses
It is interesting to look at which party was the majority under which president when the Debt to GDP ratio was going up or down.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:54 am
Great, informative article!
I was surprised to see that our debt interest alone is >$150 billion for one year.
I think it would be interesting to see spending of other countries, in terms of “per capita”. Are we one of the few countries with just huge spending per capital? Discretionary spending alone is ~$4,600 per person given the numbers in the post. I would assume that mandatory spending would be much larger than this.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:56 am
trb, I am sure that you are correct. As far as I am concerned, there should be no deficit of any kind and citizens are taxed enough (too much, actually). So, our dear leaders need to figure out how to reconcile these two items before any further spending is even considered. Kicking the can further down the road without really solving the problem doesn’t do any good.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:58 am
Thank you for posting this, that poster really looks interesting! There is so much heat, misinformation out there it is good to have some unbiased data to look at.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:01 am
But the chart you show is federal spending as percent of GDP. On usgovernmentspending.com the chart is federal+state+local spending as a percent of GDP.
Over the last ten years federal spending has been about 20 percent of GDP and total spending has been about 35 percent of GDP.
The whole point of usgovernmentspending.com is that you can’t get an understanding of government spending by just looking at the federal government. You need to look at the whole picture: federal, state, and local.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:08 am
An interesting list, debt as a percentage of GDP.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
I was surprised to see countries like UAE, Venezuela, and China to still have debt/GDP of 15%-20%.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Great post J.D.
You say “I was able to create a graph that shows that discretionary spending as a percentage of the U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) peaked in 1982, and then fell under Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Clinton.”
Am I alone in seeing that the graph says that discretionary spending peaks in 1968 and then falls until 2000? Or are you saying that since Reagan, it reached a peaked in 1982 and then fell until the beginning of George W. Bush’s term? I’m just a little confused on that one.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:23 am
@Shara
Scientists do actually decide where the money goes. I work at a lab in an academic institution. NIH (National Institutes of Health) just gets a funding amount. Then, once grant proposals are submitted they are reviewed by other scientists in field. The federal government doesn’t really have much control over HOW the money is spent, but just how much they give.
Just wanted to clear up that little bit.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:25 am
@JD (#18):
Ooooh… that just set a light off in my had. Since last week, I’ve been unable to visit GRS or the forums. using Firefox on my home PC. I get a server disconnect error. Occassionally, the main page of the forums will load (without any stylesheets or images), but I can’t get into any of the categories. It works with IE, so I figured a Firefox upgrade had broken something. I was unaware you’d moved some things around. I’ll check my AdBlock settings when I get home and see if “foldedspace.org” happens to be on any of the default blacklists.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:30 am
As an employee of the Dept. of Homeland Security (which is not a boondoggle haha), I think this poster is a great resource and should be reviewed by every citizen.
You should know where all your tax dollars are being spent. You wouldn’t give a finance manager free control over your portfolio and not ask for statements would you?
August 24th, 2009 at 8:34 am
@ Kris & JD,
I access this site from my work computer. I can’t see the images either. I went to foldedspace.org and, as it turns out, that site is blocked by my employer’s WebSense filter. If it was ever an option to change where your images are housed, JD, that would be really wonderful. As it is, I turn up on a “violation report” every time I view your site for this reason.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:47 am
This means charts that simply tell how much money was spent per year are not particularly helpful in showing us what decisions actually led to the costs.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:55 am
Strange. I’m baffled as to why foldedspace.org might be blocked for some people. Des, can you tell me what a “violation report” is for your web filter? I’ve never done anything remotely evil with any of my sites, so I’m not sure how they could be blacklisted. Do you also have trouble accessing images at jdroth.com?
I didn’t realize this was an ongoing issue or I would have found an alternative solution by now!
August 24th, 2009 at 8:58 am
JD–I think it would be a great idea to also include some comparative data from *other* countries about their federal budgets as a percent of GDP.
Many of us have the impression that the US is a highly profligate country, and admittedly we are above average in that category, but there are lots of countries (including Japan!) that are much worse off.
Also worth noting that among the countries with the lowest debt to GDP ratios there is a very high incidence of countries that have flat taxes. Gives support to the counterintuitive (and ironic) conclusion that high taxes create surpluses in the short term, but in the long term they create deficits–apparently politicians can’t resist spending the money and then some….
Dan
Casual Kitchen
August 24th, 2009 at 9:04 am
@Daniel (#37)
Great idea. If I have time today, I’ll do it. (I have to write tomorrow’s post first, plus I have the podcast.) Next week’s post on taxes does have a comparison chart that shows the tax burden in 30 countries as a percentage of GDP. It’d be interesting to see budgets as a percentage of GDP, though.
If anyone has free time, you could save me a little work by finding the raw data on other countries’ budget vs. GDP.
August 24th, 2009 at 9:05 am
It’s already been noted the effect during the Clinton years was due to a very spending adverse directed Congress. While it was Republican led I think they’re all dogs! ; ) Although you have to add in the enormous effect of the dot com boom that pushed increases in the GDP to amazing levels.
Note that at the rate we’re going under the combined Obama/Democratic Congress we’re very likely to see the largest increase in the history of the country. Notice the enormous spike! Add to that the healthcare fiasco and most likely within 12-24 months we’ll see inflation like we did during the late 70’s/early 80’s. Won’t that be fun to have interest rates for mortgages back up to 15-20%??! Hey, at least our savings account will have larger returns.
August 24th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Very interesting topic and explanation….good to know the details.
Thanks!
August 24th, 2009 at 9:08 am
“To me, it looks like President Clinton is the only one to systematically reduce spending.”
Isn’t that due to the massive expansion of the economy during his term?
August 24th, 2009 at 9:14 am
I’ve added a clarification on my Clinton comment. You guys have made some good points. I was thinking narrowly instead of broadly…
August 24th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Wow, JD, thanks for doing all the research! This info is fascinating!
It is kind of overwhelming to think, in order to “fix” our budget problems, we ALL have to agree!
August 24th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Wow JD, GREAT research!!! This is one of the most informative posts I’ve read online.
You’re right that ” no one political party can honestly claim to be anti-spending”. All politicians have an incentive to SPEND LIKE THE WIND. If you don’t spend your budget, you lose it. There are no rewards for being fiscally prudent.
In a nutshell, what matters most is the interest rate we have to pay others to fund our OVER SPENDING. That interest rate is in the form of treasuries. I’m impressed and AMAZED foreigners still want to buy our treasuries with the 10-yr yield at only 3.5%, but more power to us!
Since money is still so cheap, it’s up to us to ALSO spend like the wind! Regarding taxes, everybody is ok with high taxes so long as it doesn’t affect them. I for one am looking to buy Nevada property now, so I don’t have to pay 10% to California so they can flush it down the drain towards bankruptcy.
In fact, I write about buying Rental Property today. I think it’s a good idea if you are younger to buy some rental property now, have someone fund it over your working life, renovate, and then move in and establish residency, especially if the rental is in one of the 7 no income tax states.
Happy Monday All!
RB
August 24th, 2009 at 9:39 am
RE: NASA.
For anyone following the news of the Augustine Commission (per the request of President Obama, the commission is reviewing the current NASA manned spaceflight plans, and if feasible with the current projected budgets for NASA), they are agreeing with you JD - manned spaceflight will NOT meet the current goal of developing spacecraft and rockets to send man to the Moon by 2020 and to Mars in the future with current and projected funding.
On the same thought, comments like Lara’s make me sad - NASA (and the space race) is the reason we have Velcro and the microprocessor.
August 24th, 2009 at 9:43 am
“that’s like borrowing against your Roth IRA in order to fund your current year’s spending”
Not really, since Social Security is not a savings program. Current receipts pay current benefits. Right now, wage earners pay more in taxes than is required to pay current benefits. At some point in the future, about 2018, that will change and benefits paid will exceed the social security taxes collected. Then money from other taxes will have to be used to pay part of the Social Security benefits and that spending will show up as a larger deficit.
The “social security trust fund” is largely a bookkeeping construct. It tells us when the amount paid by other taxes will equal the excess paid by current social security taxes. There is nothing that says the government has to stop supplementing social security with other taxes at that point. In fact, there is nothing that says government has to start supplementing social secuirty payments from other taxes just because it collected more social security taxes than it has spent. Those are decisions Congress has made and can change.
We elect politicians to decide how much we will be taxed and how it will be spent. The real danger is that we fail to make the public investments required to have increased productivity. Because with a smaller percentage of the population working, we are going to be in a world of hurt if they aren’t more productive than we are. Just as we are more productive than our parents in large part because of their investments in public infrastructure.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:47 am
That poster is awesome.
Thanks for all of your research JD! Guess someone’s got to do it.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:50 am
J.D.,
Just a suggestion, but a post this long and this cumbersome with details should be a Saturday or Sunday post. As I pop in on my lunch break to see what’s happening on GRS I know there is no way I’ll ever be able to digest the information here in the short amount of time that I have. Maybe I can get to it tonight……………..
August 24th, 2009 at 11:01 am
JD–Great idea leading the tax discussion with the budget issue.
It seems that for most people any discussion of taxes is driven by emotion. “I like this program; we need that program”, etc.
It doesn’t seem as if most people think about the numbers behind the budget, perhaps because we’re all kind of shell shocked at the size of the numbers. To ordinary people they seem incomprehensible.
But as (hopefully) concerned citizens, we really do have to be aware of the numbers and what they mean.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:04 am
My take on Clinton is that he wised up after the mid-term smack-down in his first four years when his program to dramatically expand the government was shot down. It was the fortuitous circumstances of fiscally disciplined (at least at that time) Republicans and a strong economy that he didn’t fiddle with too much that helped him stumble into a balanced budget. Sad to be a witness to what has happened since then. Makes me think divided government is best for the country.
If nothing else the posters emphasize the need to dramatically reduce the size, complexity and scope of government… not to mention spending.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:20 am
I find it interesting(as a gov’t employee) that many people do mot understand how gov’t funding works- but maybe if I didn’t work for the gov’t I wouldn’t either. by the way, Homeland Security is a mess-Hopefully,this administration will start to fix it. Some of the agencies that got pulled into DHS- should be back on their own.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:27 am
@JD - I’m a network admin and we also use websense - when I run foldedspace.org, it comes back categorized as MP3 and Audio Download Services. I’ve unblocked the site for our users - maybe others can request the same… HTH.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Thanks, Kelleigh. That makes some sense, I guess. In the Olden Days (pre-GRS), I played loosey-goosey with copyright, and did post some non-public domain mp3s. Running a big site has made me much more aware of IP issues. Can you tell me if jdroth.com is blocked? That’s the new location of my personal site, and I’ve tried to be respectful of copyright there.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:38 am
50. Disagree. Given the trend of ever increasing deficit, the decrease in deficit during Clinton’s tenure was not something he “stumbled” upon or was an accident. I agree it was beneficial that there was pushback in congress for increased spending when there became excess in the budget. During the first presidential debates it was something he even brought up, as the Republicans were running as fiscal conservatives but they were anything but (cutting taxes while the deficit zoomed).
So strongly, he increased the tax rate on the highest tier to keep the budget balanced. Something there was alot of political pressure not to do, and was warned it would plunge the economy into a recession (it did not).
Clinton 1996: “Well, three and a half years later, we cut the deficit by more than half. In fact, we would have a budget surplus today but for the interest we pay on the debt run up in the twelve years before I took office. Cutting the deficit further until we balance the budget is vital to our future. The burden of this deficit drags us down today and jeopardizes our children’s future tomorrow.”
I am a democrat but it doesn’t matter what party one belongs to, having a deficit this big is scary.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:39 am
As defeatist as it sounds, I’ve basically given up on this topic. As interesting as it sometimes is, I’ve come to realize that no matter how well I understand it, I have essentially no influence at all over how the federal budget is allocated. I feel I’m better off focusing on things where I can actually make a difference.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:42 am
JD, thanks for the post and the Death and Taxes poster.
Tyler, that’s about how I feel. I’m very libertarian at the Federal level and much more liberal when it comes to spending projects at the local level. I’d much rather be paying my 30% in taxes locally and about 5% nationally.
August 24th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
“The “social security trust fund” is largely a bookkeeping construct.”
A pyramid scheme, in other words. Yet I am surprised at how many people think their SSI contributions are being put into an account for them somewhere, similar to an IRA. The fact that they receive those benefit statements from the government only seems to add to this illusion.
Sadly, however, the government has been spending that money just as fast as it receives it, and (amazingly) STILL managed to land the country into $13 trillion worth of debt.
What you have to realize is that the government does not recognize liabilities on its books for the SSI that has been paid in. This is another way of saying it doesn’t owe anyone a dime for Social Security or Medicare. If the government acknowledged that it owed people something, it would have to show a national debt of closer to $60 trillion. That’s about $200,000 for every American, including children and those who are too old to work. So what does that come out to for each *working* American? Maybe half a million apiece? $400K? Do you know many people who have that much money lying around?
This staggering outflow of cash has provided a lot of people, many of whom are no longer alive, with the ability to spend the last 20-30 years of their lives enjoying a sort of second childhood - a nice, long stretch of life where they don’t have to work. Now everyone else has come to expect it, to feel entitled to it, because they’ve been paying for it. But it isn’t going to happen.
Here’s the math.
If you spent the last twenty years of your life not working and burned through a rather modest $25,000 a year, you’d still go through $500,000. With average household incomes somewhere in the range of the mid-$40k’s, can you not see how utterly unrealistic it is for 99% of the population to even think about retiring for that length of time? Some people could probably squeeze out a retirement of five to ten years, but lower-income people would simply have to die in the traces.
But consider: If the vast, overwhelming majority of Americans can’t squeeze together enough cash to enjoy a lengthy retirement, how on earth does the government think it can provide it for everyone out of thin air? Tax the rich? There simply aren’t enough rich people to make it possible.
Politicians for decades have been making themselves popular and getting votes by making these kinds of promises, and people have believed them. I hesitate to allow the government ANY power, beyond the tiniest, bare minimum, for precisely this reason: I DON’T TRUST THEM. They are no better than Bernie Madoff.
August 24th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I have to disagree with the comment “Despite fiery rhetoric from both sides, no one political party can honestly claim to be anti-spending.” I would recommend the Libertarian party at http://www.lp.org. Now, if you changed that sentence to “neither of the big two political parties can honestly claim…” it would be accurate.
Also, regarding your Mars comment: Robert Zubrin over at the Mars Society makes some good claims for getting people onto (and back from) Mars for only 17% of the current NASA budget. Many people feel this number accepts way too many risks in the program, but even if we triple that figure it is well within the existing budget. What is missing is the will to get there.
August 24th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
There’s only so much capital to go around, and we may have to pay higher interest rates to get it. That would, of course, defeat the purpose of the stimulus package. Interest rates will rise if the value of the dollar isn’t preserved through a reduction of the deficit, so investors are going to be looking at the risk of inflation into the price they are prepared to pay for government IOU’s. Our country is drowning in debt. And now healthcare??
August 24th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@JD - for us jdroth.com comes up as uncategorized which I don’t have blocked, so for us it’s OK. It all depends on how websense categorizes websites and then what companies have blocked as categories that determines if a site is blocked or not.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Try to set aside your personal politics, and accept that WE the (American) people are the ones who are spending more than we take in as federal taxes. That’s right, WE the people are responsible for our own spending. The fact that we have the two houses of Congress acting on our behalf doesn’t exonerate us as individuals. OUR votes put them in office.
That said, remember what Ben Franklin said:
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.”
The point of this is… people who are paying little to no taxes are voting for members of Congress that provide ever increasing federal benefits.
Perhaps only those who pay, say, at least $8,000 ($10,000? 15,000?) per year in federal taxes should be allowed to vote in federal elections? This would mean that only those who are paying significant amounts INTO the federal till could vote for those invested with the authority to pay significant amounts OUT of the federal till.
I don’t know if $8k, $10k, or $15k is the right threshold, but something needs to be done to prevent the current vote-buying cycle.
Or, if inequality in voting rights is too drastic for your sensibilities - how else do we step back from the financial brink we’ve reached through vote-buying partisan politics and federal tax inequalities (which allows those who do not pay significant federal taxes to vote themselves benefits from the federal till)?
August 24th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Paul @61 - Ah, someone with sweet music to my ears!! As someone who pays well over six figures in taxes a year I find most people have NO clue how painful the onerous tax rate really is. Think about PAYING six figures+ in taxes - do you realize how ridiculous that is to consider. What most people don’t realize is that when you get at that level all the typical deductions people get like child deductions, education deductions, health care deductions, etc., etc., etc., get phased out. Only because I own several businesses am I able to accrue any reasonable deductions.
Let those of us that actually pay for all this crazy gov’t spending get to vote on it. You could even lower the barrier amount to $5k. Think about the average family with 2 kids that own a home with a mortgage pay NO federal tax - NONE!!! Sure most pay in during the year (only because they aren’t being smart in how their taxes are deducted) but they get it all back at the end of the year!!
If we can’t do that then how about a constitutional amendment that requires a balanced budget? It’s time to hold our gov’t accountable to the same financial standard that we are all trying to live up to!!
August 24th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Paul and Bear,
Spot on! That is a great idea. Another idea is to only tax individuals on consumption, not income. Abolish the income tax and move to a sales tax. This way EVERYONE will pay taxes. I am convinced that if everyone paid taxes, we would all become much more concerned with how the tax revenues are actually spent. I am also a big fan of term limits, if elected office is no longer a full-time career, maybe these politicians would make decisions that were actually in the country’s best interest, not in their own self-serving best interest for the next election.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Just a reminder that next week’s post covers some of these tax topics. It’s already written, and I don’t know if I’m going to revise it, so it might not cover everything that’s being mentioned in the last few posts. But it does cover a bit about effective tax rates, etc. Next Monday would be a good time to have a civil discussion (like the one) about the relative tax burdens different individuals face.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Bear, the average boobus americanus doesn’t care about the fact that those businesses you own are providing jobs for people - the minute they hear that you make enough to pay six figures in taxes, they will think you should be squeezed even more.
You and Paul are on the right track with the idea that only those paying taxes should have a vote into how those taxes are spent. There are, however, some people who pay taxes with one hand and reap government subsidies with the other. I’m thinking of farm subsidies and some of these bailouts we have seen recently.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I’m definitely going to get my hands on this poster as it will show my students in Econ and Government classes a really clear view of the current and possibly worsening issues they will have to deal with no and in the future. Thanks for such an interesting article I hope you don’t mind me sharing it with my students.
August 24th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
WOW - Excellent article.
So if I’m reading this right we spend 63% of our budget on the military? May I be the first to say, FTS!
@ Paul - Thanks for the suggestion (Oligarchy?) but I think democracy works best when everyone get s a say. (Not that the US is a true democracy.)
August 24th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
JD - I looking forward to your next post on these tax issues. Be careful on this though. I find that people who don’t pay these kinds of taxes have little inkling into how painful this is to see all that money sucked out of your income. As Pirate Jo said most think we should pay more.
You wouldn’t believe how many more people I could employ if the tax rate went down. That’s part of the reason tax revenues INCREASED under Bush even though he lowered taxes… those of us that create jobs through small businesses hired more people (who paid more taxes) and had higher incomes to pay taxes on.
My wife and I recently married, she makes about $80k and I make, well, let’s leave it at a lot more. She used to listen to me rant about taxes and the absolute lunacy in our system. She’d smile, nod and try to change the topic. UNTIL, we did our first filing together and she saw how she now had lost ALL her past deductions and saw that enormous tax bill - what a wake up call. Now guess who does all the ranting!! ; )
Rob@63 - run for office - you’d have my vote! Sales taxes are the only way to go! What a positive way to encourage savings as well.
PS - you want to really get me ranting, just try to justify people who pay NO (as in nada, zip, zero) tax getting refunds through Earned Income Credits. How absolutely asinine is that idea?!!!! Talk about redistribution of wealth. I’ve actually had tenants that declined additional work so they would still get their EIC refund (and Section 8 housing paid, and welfare, and, and, and…)!
August 24th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
One thing to keep in mind looking at these numbers is that they are not typical and include stimulus spending and impacts of the the recession. The deficit is much higher right now than ‘normal’. Back in 2007 the deficit was down to $160B. Obviously the current deficit spending is unsustainable but its not at all typical.
August 24th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Can I just say that I would like to raise the bar a little, and stop talking about shrinking deficits? For crying out loud, we need large, loud, budget SURPLUSES to pay down the debt we have already accumulated.
Putting this in personal terms, imagine if you were buried in credit card debt but patted yourself on the back because the amount you spent over what you made was a little lower this year than last year. Please, if we in our personal lives have to suck it up, spend LESS than we make for a while, and pay down debt, why can’t we expect the same of our government?
August 24th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
As an accountant for the Department of Defense, I must point out a subtle difference: the Budget for National Defense cited above did not reflect the true COST of national defense as reflected the the Statement of Net Cost of the Government of the United States.
According to the USG Statement of Net Cost, the Net cost of the operations and programs of the Department of Defense were $740.8 B, yes, with a B for Billions for fiscal year 2008. http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008/08stmt.pdf
The variance from budget to results of operations can be explained by supplemental appropriations asked for by the President and the Pentagon, and legislated by Congress from the aptly identified discretionary spending pool discussed in the article.
As a rule, the government must break even every three years, (as you know this doesn’t happen), but it explains the reason that Defense Agencies will spend all they are appropriated, even when it is in excess of the original budget. Another reason is that if you don’t spend it, Congress can assume that the agency doesn’t need that much money and won’t approve that level of spending in future Annual appropriations.
P.S.: If you think your readers would be interested in a further discussion of defense spending, I’d be happy to write an article for you as a guest post if you’d like. I’m starting my own blog @
http://dodassetsorliabilities.blogspot.com/
Assets or Liabilities? Resources for Making Sense of Complex DoD Financial Management Regulations.
It’s a bit slow going, but I’m gearing up for a new article on the Government Management Reform Act (GMRA) to be published soon.
August 24th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Ah. The federal budget makes me sick. So much waste. So much unnecesary spending. I love what Bear says:
“My wife and I recently married, she makes about $80k and I make, well, let’s leave it at a lot more. She used to listen to me rant about taxes and the absolute lunacy in our system. She’d smile, nod and try to change the topic. UNTIL, we did our first filing together and she saw how she now had lost ALL her past deductions and saw that enormous tax bill - what a wake up call. Now guess who does all the ranting!! ; )”
I don’t make nearly as much as he makes, and I can only imagine how worked up I would get if I were in his shoes. I think he would agree, the budget should be cut by 50% asap. At least 50%!
August 24th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@JD, Re: Website Issues
Just an update, JD. When I disable AdBlock, I can now access the forums with no problem, as well as foldedspace.org, but I’m still getting the main GRS coming back as saying the “connection was reset.” I’m not sure what’s going on, this started about a week ago. Firefox 3.5.2 on WinXP.
August 24th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
@Brian (#31)
Yes, there are technical judgments that are made with money, but when you look at many government grants they are for specific, often chic, types of projects. The government money can’t keep up with what is currently the promising technologies the way industry can.
I work on gov’t money as well within the National Lab system, and most of our gov’t dollars are earmarked for specific types of projects. We might decide if we are going to design the circuit digital or analog based on resources but every type of money has a different color. Very often the coolest stuff we come up with is funded by industry that directs projects on the back of the National Laboratories infrastructure.
August 24th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Regarding the subdiscussion about right to vote: it will never happen but I think we should be able to apply for additional votes based on specific criteria. If you own property you get to apply for another vote by providing documentation. If you pay $X in taxes, you can apply for a third vote. The more skin you have in the game (and can verify) the more say you have (up to a point, maybe 3 is as high as you go so Warren Buffet and Bill Gates don’t have all the say)
I think our country started moving in the wrong direction when they froze the number of the HoR. The House was set up so that the person who represented you was someone you were likely to know or know of their personal reputation. Since they have frozen the number and the population boomed they are pretty much just Senators with less voting power. Plus we have to deal with gerrymandering every census because there’s so much power there. I’d rather have a Rep with a softer voice who actually represented my interests than have a Rep with a louder voice who doesn’t speak for me at all.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I watched I.O.U.S.A last night and it did a pretty good job of explaining the all this too, granted, it was just before Obama took office.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Great post JD! Looking forward to Part 2
August 24th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
“A pyramid scheme, in other words.”
The same way any insurance is a “pyramid scheme” where benefits are paid based on claims, not on how much you paid.
You can also look at it as a way for the next generation to pay for all the public infrastructure they inherit that was created by the hard work of people who retire.
“What you have to realize is that the government does not recognize liabilities on its books for the SSI that has been paid in”
It also doesn’t recognize a dime for any of the assets it holds either. And the value of federal assets far exceeds any federal debt. If it weren’t for all those assets, most of us would be a lot poorer. The government infrastructure and other assets from water to land to schools to roads is what underlays this country’s wealth.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
“You wouldn’t believe how many more people I could employ if the tax rate went down. ”
You are right, and no one should believe it. Because its not true.
“Sales taxes are the only way to go! ”
I love this idea - of course we will quickly hear about the things people buy that shouldn’t be taxed because they have societal benefits. Starting with stock in companies, machinery and materials to build things, etc followed by all the other things that those who don’t want to pay income taxes would buy.
Lets be clear, the folks making six figures are getting a very large return on those taxes. If they don’t want to pay them, move to the Congo where taxes are low and see how much money they can make. The fact is that people who make a lot of money in the United States do so because the government provides infrastructure that they make use of proportionate to their income. They just take all that free government largess for granted.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Ross, can you provide some statistics to back up your claims? Or are you only stating your opinion? I don’t necessarily agree with Bear, but I don’t agree with you either. Your statements seem more hyperbolic to me, though:
“The fact is that people who make a lot of money in the United States do so because the government provides infrastructure that they make use of proportionate to their income.”
On its surface, this seems absurd, and goes counter to what I’ve observed in the lives of those around me. I’m willing to accept it, though, if you can provide some data to back up your claim.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
This is probably the most unbiased, most informative post I’ve ever read on the subject of spending. Very well done, JD.
Previous posters who have mentioned term limits have it right, in my opinion. Since we have so many career politicians (both elected and hired as staffers), these people want their employer to grow in order to protect their jobs. Therefore, we see government grow. This really isn’t any different than a company like Microsoft or John Deere growing their businesses to protect jobs. Both parties are just as responsible for this action.
My personal solution for term limits would be four two-year terms in the House (8 years), two Senate terms (12 years), and a single six-year presidential term with no re-election. I would also ensure that a private, non-political organization be responsible for creating congressional districts that are not gerrymandered. It is a crime for over 90% of political races to not be competitive, in my opinion.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
I feel a little bad that I didn’t try to educate myself on Federal budget before. I did some research about the Dept. of the Interior while in college for a term paper, but I never expanded beyond that because my main interest is with that department. I still have to wrap my head around the total budget a little bit more but I am looking forward to your taxes article!
Is there an expiration date for the Death and Taxes code?
August 24th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
One thing about the federal budget people do not realize is that just because we have a government agency that we pay billions for it doesn’t mean they do anything productive. We were educating children before the Department of Education was formed in 1979 (some say better than we are after billions in spending). President Carter started the Dept of Energy to reduce dependency on foreign oil and after billions of dollars we are more dependent of foreign oil. Are we safer after the formation of the department of Homeland Security? Did the Welfare Department eliminate poverty? Does Social Security enable people to retire with dignity? The Constitution was very clear on the role of the federal government. Just think if we weren’t funding all these programs the money we would have to help the poor in our own communities, educate our own children and fund our own retirement. This freedom thing is pretty cool, we should try it sometime.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Wow. I realize this has little to do with the original post, but I’ve just read and re-read some of the comments here on voting. I am shocked (and sort of horrified, to be honest) by suggestion that people who pay less than $8,000 a year in taxes should not be allowed to vote.
Last year, I paid less than $3,000 a year in taxes. This has been true every year of my life — I’m 27. In my case, this is because for the last ten years, I have been in college, then Americorps, and now grad school — all situations that did not lead me to make very much money.
I have a question for those of you who believe that I should not be allowed to vote in federal elections: do you believe taxation without representation is an acceptable system? That I should pay my ~$3,000 in taxes per year, and not only lose any ability to influence how that money is used, but also my ability to help choose an elected official who will represent me, presumably in making some decisions that are not even related to how much money is spent?
If that isn’t what you mean, then I guess you are proposing that I would get a ~$3,000 tax refund in April instead of a $400 refund like last time — a sort of compensation for my loss of voting rights. In that case, I think the question really becomes whether or not it is okay to systematically deny people voting rights based on economic status. Am I going crazy, or are people suggesting that this would be a good thing? I feel like I must be missing something here.
August 25th, 2009 at 4:51 am
@Ross (#79):
“Lets be clear, the folks making six figures are getting a very large return on those taxes. The fact is that people who make a lot of money in the United States do so because the government provides infrastructure that they make use of proportionate to their income. They just take all that free government largess for granted.”
Huh???
Ross, who do you think is PAYING for all that “government infrastructure” that allows rich people to be rich? Poor people? Those infrastructures are funded BY TAXES LEVIED ON THOSE SAME RICH PEOPLE.
The complaint is that there is an enormous amount of waste, inefficiency, and “slippage” in programs adminstered by the government. That is, rich people are paying $500 in taxes and getting $300 back in services. They believe (rightly so) that the majority of those services could be supplied more efficiently by the private sector. That is, they would only have to pay $400 in taxes instead of $500, and they’d get $350 worth of roads instead of $300.
You seem to be arguing that they’re getting back MORE than their money’s worth from the government. However, since the government has no money except that which it collects from taxpayers, and since those rich people are disproportionately the source of the majority of that tax revenue, I’m confused as to who you think is providing the money that is producing this “extra value” that you claim the rich are receiving. And does that mean that poor people are getting LESS than their money’s worth?
Or are you saying that somehow, we’re ALL getting “more than our money’s worth” through some inexplicable mathematical anomoly?
I suppose you *could* argue that that’s the case, and that the magic “extra value” is coming from deficits, but those will eventually have to be paid back. And who will be paying it back? You guessed it. Rich people. So I guess the best case you could make would be that today’s rich people are benefitting from taxes yet to be collected from tomorrow’s rich people.
August 25th, 2009 at 6:14 am
“On its surface, this seems absurd, and goes counter to what I’ve observed in the lives of those around me.”
JD -
My point is pretty simple and it obvious on its face. Most people in the United States would be a lot poorer if they didn’t live in the United States.
Let the folks who think its not true try starting a business in countries where there is no infrastructure. Where there is no educated workforce. Where there is no transportation system. Where police are poorly paid and make their money from bribes. Where only the rich have access to education or even to a library. Where the wealthy live in walled compounds and have to have armed security to travel anywhere. Where large parts of the population can’t afford to buy the goods and services they produce.
In short, let them move to a country where taxes are low and those with money are the only ones who have a say in how it is run. They will quickly discover that they get a very high return on their tax dollars in the United States.
August 25th, 2009 at 6:23 am
Ross, you’re making a classic logical fallacy.
“In short, let them move to a country where taxes are low and those with money are the only ones who have a say in how it is run. They will quickly discover that they get a very high return on their tax dollars in the United States.”
You’re comparing countries without infrastructure to a country with an expensive and inefficient infrastructure. That’s an invalid comparison. You’re saying that paying $50,000 for a toilet seat is a bargain, because many countries don’t have toilet seats.
You’re completely ignoring countries with reasonably-priced toilet seats.
August 25th, 2009 at 6:43 am
Just to add to my last point:
I don’t think many “rich” people object to paying taxes in order to fund the things that facilitate an educated, peaceful population. Things like school, police, roads - nobody is objecting to paying for those things.
The problem, Ross, is when the government oversteps its mandate, and forces “rich” people to buy new cars for poor people (Cash for Clunkers), or help poor people stay in massive McMansions they can’t afford (bank bailouts, mortgage modifications), and fighting a futile decade-long oil war on the other side of the planet. Those types of programs represent TRILLIONS of dollars in wasted resources, taken directly from the pockets of hardworking, self-made Americans. That’s nothing more than redistribution of wealth, and its driving the backlash against the progressive socialization of the USA.
August 25th, 2009 at 6:51 am
“On its surface, this seems absurd, and goes counter to what I’ve observed in the lives of those around me.”
JD -
My point is pretty simple and it obvious on its face. Most people in the United States would be a lot poorer if they didn’t live in the United States.
Let the folks who think its not true try starting a business in countries where there is no infrastructure. Where there is no educated workforce. Where there is no transportation system. Where police are poorly paid and make their money from bribes. Where only the rich have access to education or even to a library. Where the wealthy live in walled compounds and have to have armed security to travel anywhere. Where large parts of the population can’t afford to buy the goods and services they produce.
In short, let them move to a country where taxes are low and those with money are the only ones who have a say in how it is run. They will quickly discover that they get a very high return on their tax dollars in the United States.
“Or are you saying that somehow, we’re ALL getting “more than our money’s worth” through some inexplicable mathematical anomoly?”
Its not a zero-sum game.
“Those infrastructures are funded BY TAXES LEVIED ON THOSE SAME RICH PEOPLE.”
Where do those “rich” people get their money to pay taxes? Out of thin air? Ultimately the taxes are paid by their customers in the form of higher prices.
“I suppose you *could* argue that that’s the case, and that the magic “extra value” is coming from deficits, but those will eventually have to be paid back.”
No, they won’t. There is no reason that the Federal Government can’t carry a debt forever. There are plenty of businesses that are always in debt, constantly borrowing to build the infrastructure that keeps them profitable.
The real question is whether we invest to keep the United States “profitable”. If the next generation is less productive than we are, then we are in trouble. Any debt we take on now to help them be productive is money well-spent. And the wealthy will, as always, get more than their share of the benefits.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:21 am
@Katie #84
“I am shocked (and sort of horrified, to be honest) by suggestion that people who pay less than $8,000 a year in taxes should not be allowed to vote.”
Katie, I’m trying to figure out how to stop the problem of people voting for benefits from the federal government that they’re not also paying for at some meaningful level. Perhaps the limit should be set at $1,000 in taxes paid, or, perhaps there is another way to deal with the problem.
My point is, I don’t know how to solve it, and I’m participating in a discussion about it.
Maybe everyone here at GRS should read “Saving America’s Future, a Challenge to the American People”, which is from a bipartisan group of politicians and businesspeople. Their conclusion approximates that “the regular political system cannot do what it is supposed to do” (to quote the Washington Post’s Fred Hiatt). Their solution is to create a Fiscal Future Commission, modeled on the BRAC process used to create a rational downsizing plan for DoD bases, and apply that to the federal budget. This would permit Congress one take-it-or-leave-it budgetary solution that would be good for the country (but maybe not for the individual congressional district).
Can We the People get Congress to do the right thing for the country, instead of continuing this partisan squabbling over how to get the most benefits for their one district?
August 25th, 2009 at 7:25 am
“I’m trying to figure out how to stop the problem of people voting for benefits from the federal government that they’re not also paying for at some meaningful level.”
That isn’t happening now. The notion that most voters are not paying federal taxes is completely unsupported by any evidence. Half of eligible voters don’t vote now - do you really think that its the rich taxpayers who are staying home?
This idea appears to be coming from a minority who don’t really believe in American democracy and want to limit voting to those who agree with them. Of course why $1000 - why not $100,000? Aren’t the super-rich paying even more than the merely wealthy? Shouldn’t they have proportionately more of a voice in government?
Welcome back to the middle ages.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:53 am
Ross wrote: My point is pretty simple and it obvious on its face.
Well, no it’s not, which is why I asked for clarification. You seem to be stating an opinion, but you’re not backing it up with any sort of factual support. I’m not saying your opinion is wrong. But it does seem unlikely. I want you to give me data to support your position that “people who make a lot of money in the United States do so because the government provides infrastructure that they make use of proportionate to their income.”
Again, this isn’t what I’ve seen in my own life. If anything, I’ve seen the opposite. (Though, really, I’d argue that it’s the vast middle class that makes the greatest use of government infrastructure.)
Again, I don’t necessarily disagree with some of your arguments. I’m not one who thinks the rich are pure and noble. I’m not one who thinks all government programs are evil or that we’re on the road to socialism. As my post next week will demonstrate, the U.S. tax burden is relatively low right now. It seems especially low on high-income earners.
But I don’t think the rich are bilking the system any more than the poor are. If you really want to have a discussion about manipulating the government, let’s address big business. Here’s a topic where I’m not afraid to get political. The U.S. is a corpocracy. It’s a nation run by its biggest businesses. And if you ask me, that’s bullshit.
If you want to argue that the Fortune 500 benefit disproportionately from government infrastructure, I’m with you. There’s plenty of data to show that. But I can’t buy your “people who make a lot of money make more use of the government than those who don’t” without some sort of actual evidence.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:57 am
And to the folks who think voting rights should be tied to taxes paid: Isn’t this the sort of thing that led to the founding of the United States in the first place? An escape from these sorts of restrictions? I understand the desire to create some sort of “barrier to entry”, but I don’t think tax obligation is a good one. In fact, I think it’s a very poor one, indeed.
August 25th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Tyler (55)–I fully agree with you. We’ve been hearing about how we need to balance the budget for over 30 years and nothing ever happens. People can’t even agree if the nation living beyond it’s means is even a bad thing (??????), and there’s no will in congress or on mainstreet to do anything about it.
So maybe it IS best to tend to that which you can control.
August 25th, 2009 at 9:19 am
@Ross:
I wrote:
“Or are you saying that somehow, we’re ALL getting ‘more than our money’s worth’ through some inexplicable mathematical anomoly?”
Then you wrote:
“Its not a zero-sum game.”
I’m confused. How is it NOT a “zero-sum game.” We’re talking about government expenditures here. The government can only spend what it collects in taxes, plus what it borrows.
Total Spending = Taxes Collected + Deficit
That’s a zero-sum.
If they collect $5 trillion in taxes and borrowed funds, then they can only provide a maximum of $5 trillion in services. In reality, due to inefficiencies and waste, we’re only getting back $4 trillion in services. Yet you seem to be implying that we’re somehow getting back $6 trillion in services. How can that be the case? Or am I misunderstanding you?
August 25th, 2009 at 10:23 am
@JD #93
“I understand the desire to create some sort of “barrier to entry”, but I don’t think tax obligation is a good one.”
It’s not a barrier to entry that’s the goal. It’s about finding a way to stop the overspending at the federal level.
Ok, accepting your position, what IS the right way to prevent vote-buying by promising/delivering pork or other payments in return for votes? I understand the idea that everyone’s vote should count equally, but even Ben Franklin realized (so this isn’t a new concept) that the republic can not stand forever once votes are made based on benefits returned to the voter.
AARP is an example of people being asked to vote based on what benefits the group. I’m a member of AARP, but abhor most of their “give us more federal benefits” positions. I guess that makes me part of the problem - but I’m looking for solutions.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Great feedback Paul & Kevin, while we all recognize that basing voting rights on income levels is an absurd idea we do need answers to the accountability of the spending of our dollars vs the vote buying that is going on all over the cities of our nations.
JD - I am interested in seeing how you determine that the tax burden is relatively low. Please don’t compare us to the socialistic societies in Europe or Canada.
The issue isn’t that ours are too low - it is that theirs is far, far too high. How is it remotely possible that anyone should have to pay over 50% of their income in taxes (last year I paid 61% of my income in taxes, fed, state, local, property, sales, etc). That is outrageous, regardless of how much one makes. Let’s either have a flat income tax or eliminate it altogether and go with a sales tax. Stop trying to screw those that produce (regardless of income levels) let’s hold everyone accountable instead of redistributing the wealth.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Ah, Paul, I see what you’re after.
I don’t think there’s any way to completely eliminate pork. That’s part of the process. However, there’s no question that some people and groups wield inordinate power. I think that’s one reason that there’s a push for campaign finance reform. (I don’t know much about that subject, though, so I could be wrong.) And it’s one reason I’m so anti-big business. Big businesses shape government policy in ways that I believe are detrimental to this country.
Here’s a tiny example (and one that not everyone will find bad): Copyright lengths have been growing longer and longer? Why? Because Disney has clout. Every time Mickey Mouse comes close to entering the public domain, Disney lobbies for longer copyright terms. And they get them. Present copyright laws are nothing like what they were originally intended to be. They’re protecting corporate interests, not public interests. The two are not always mutually exclusive, of course, but there’s no perfect overlap.
What you’re describing with AARP and what I’m describing with Disney both stem from lobbying, and from throwing around big bucks. I have a good friend who’s actually a lobbyist for the health care industry. He’s a smart, well-educated guy. He believes lobbying is an essential part of our governmental system. I’m not convinced. Or maybe it is, but its current form is not.
I was a huge supporter of Ross Perot in 1992. Why? Because I felt like he was NOT beholden to any particular interest group. (In retrospect, I’m not sure how good of a President he would have made, but I was young at the time, and it seemed to make sense.)
Anyhow, I’m rambling, eh?
I agree that more accountability is needed. To some degree we have that with our election system. We can vote the bums out. But part of the problem is the actual system itself. I saw this first-hand when I served on my town’s budget committee a decade ago. I was very opposed to some of the things that were happening, and I wanted to wield influence to correct them. HAHAHHAAH. Not a chance. The problem was systemic, and there was little that one person could do to help.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Hey, Bear.
First, although I’m not too well informed on it, I do like the idea of a flat tax. It seems to make sense. A consumption tax (like a sales tax) might make sense, but I tend to think that’s regressive, which to me is a greater sin than a progressive tax. (Of course, I live in Oregon, which has no sales tax of any sort, so I’m not really familiar with how sales taxes operate in reality — only in theory.)
So, I agree that there is probably a better system.
That said, I think it’s crazy to call Canada socialist. Do you really think they are?
As a preview for the country comparison in next week’s post (so you can prepare your debate points in advance!), here’s the data I’m using:
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REV
I’m open to using more comprehensive data if you can point me to it.
You say that we ought not compare ourselves to Europe. Who would you compare us to then? And why?
I think it makes sense to compare countries of similar size and economic status with each other. Maybe the U.S. pays more in taxes than, say, Nigeria (I don’t know this for sure), but does it really make sense to compare a first world nation with a third world nation? Do we want the government infrastructure of a third world nation? I don’t.
Again, I’m not arguing in favor of high taxes. But as the data I share next week demonstrate, our taxes are actually relatively low right now by most measures. (Whether they’ll continue that way is another question. I’m not convinced that they will.)
Anyhow, this thread is about the budget, not about taxes. We should really be saving our discussion for next Monday!
August 25th, 2009 at 11:07 am
@Bear (#97):
“Please don’t compare us to the socialistic societies in Europe or Canada.”
I’m not sure it’s fair to categorize Canada as a “socialistic society.” Canada and the US are largely the same, with respect to public policies. What programs do you feel make Canada more “socialistic” than the US? The public education system? Government-funded unemployment insurance? Socialized pension and disability benefits? The US has all of those, too.
The only difference I can see is health care. Canada has full-on socialized health care. The US does too, to a lesser degree. What do you think Medicare and Medicaid are? How is that any different?
Am I missing something? Are there some other characteristics you were referring to that drive your belief that Canada is a “socialistic society,” while the US is not?